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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Times of Uncertainty: Understanding the Dynamics and Implications
Patrick A. Imam
,
Kangni R Kpodar
,
Djoulassi K. Oloufade
, and
Vigninou Gammadigbe
This paper delves into the intricate relationship between uncertainty and remittance flows. The prevailing focus has been on tangible risk factors like exchange rate volatility and economic downturn, overshadowing the potential impact of uncertainty on remittance dynamics. Leveraging a new dataset of quarterly remittances combined with uncertainty indicators across 77 developing countries from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in remittance-sending countries negatively affects remittance flows. In contrast, uncertainty in remittance receiving-countries has a more complex, dual effect. In countries with high private investment ratios, rising domestic uncertainty leads to a decline in remittances. Conversely, in countries with low public spending on education and health, remittances increase in response to uncertainy, serving as a social safety net. The paper underscores the heterogeneous and non-linear effects of domestic uncertainty on remittance flows.
Keywords:
Remittances; Uncertainty; Shocks; remittance flow; remittance dynamics; IRF of remittance; remittances in times; uncertainty indicator; Migration; Private investment; Health care spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Costa Rica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the neutral interest rate in Costa Rica. Estimates of Costa Rica’s real natural rate of interest are between 0 and 3 percent, with a suite of semistructural and univariate methods reaffirming this conclusion at close to 1 percent. This toolkit of multiple differing methods accounts for characteristics of the Costa Rican economy and suggests current monetary policy remains restrictive. Univariate estimates for Costa Rica are between those for the United States and largest regional peers. Structural changes to the Costa Rican economy, particularly in recent years, have important implications for the movement in the neutral rate. A suite of univariate methods also reaffirms this conclusion and suggests current monetary policy remains restrictive. Estimates for Costa Rica are between the United States and largest regional peers. Replicating the univariate approach for the United States and other countries in Latin America suggests Costa Rica has a somewhat lower neutral real interest rate than the largest regional peers, Brazil and Mexico, which currently appear to have neutral rates above 2 percent but above the United States.
Keywords:
labor market characteristic; refugees in Costa rica; estimation uncertainty; neutral real interest rate; card payment fee; Real interest rates; Migration; Labor markets; Social assistance spending; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Aleksandra Babii
,
Ms. Alina Carare
,
Dmitry Vasilyev
, and
Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov
Traditional models relying on standard variables like the U.S. Hispanic unemployment rate fared well in explaining remittances to CAPDR and Mexico during the pre-pandemic period. However, they fail to predict the sustained growth in remittances since June 2020, including the significant increase in the average amount remitted. Using data from over 300 remittances corridors (from 23 U.S. states to 14 Salvadoran departments), we find that this increase is primarily explained by the dynamics of U.S. states real wages, as well as more temporary factors like U.S. unemployment relief (including the extraordinary pandemic support), U.S. states mobility, and COVID-19 infections at home. The paper also analyses what role the change in the modes of transmission of remittances, additional U.S. fiscal stimulus and U.S. labor market developments, especially in the sectors were CAPDR and Mexican migrants preponderantly work, play in explaining aggregate remittances growth.
Keywords:
COVID-19 pandemic; migrant remittances; international migration; remittances dynamics; B. panel Vector Autoregression Model; remittances growth; evolution of remittance; remittances to CAPDR country; Remittances; Real wages; COVID-19; Migration; Unemployment; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Defying the Odds: Remittances During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Mr. Saad N Quayyum
, and
Vigninou Gammadigbe
This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during Jan 2020-Dec 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer; (ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances; and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in host countries is positively associated with remittances as the fiscal response cushions the economic impact of the pandemic.
Keywords:
Remittances; COVID-19; Shocks; impulse response function; infection rate; home economy; remittance flow; corridor data; Fiscal stimulus; Migration; Inward remittances; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Preempting and Mitigating Spillovers
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Fund has a range of modalities and tools to cover spillovers. However, there remains scope to enhance synergies between global and country-specific spillover coverage and to foster cross-country dialogue. Practical guidance and enhanced information-sharing would also allow for more systematic surveillance of spillovers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to continue expanding the research frontier covering new spillovers and channels and developing new tools and data sets. Therefore, filling these remaining gaps in the Fund’s spillover work would allow for a more coordinated and evenhanded surveillance of spillovers.
Keywords:
spillover discussion; WEO spillover chapter; spillover coverage; transparency policy; Policy spillover; Spillovers; COVID-19; International monetary system; Migration; Financial sector stability; Global; Trade tensions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Colombia highlights that with the disruptions associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and with lower oil prices, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 2.4 percent in 2020. In the near term, disruptions associated, directly and indirectly, with the pandemic are expected to generate a recession of -2.4 percent in 2020. Weaker domestic demand from the shutdown efforts is expected to partially offset lower external demand and commodity prices, such that the current account deficit is projected to rise to 4.7 percent of GDP. In the wake of exceptional shocks and risks, recent monetary easing is welcomed by the IMF and accommodation should continue to support the economy if underlying inflation and inflation expectations remain moderate. Continued liquidity support should be provided as required, and available capital buffers in the banking system should be used as needed. All available space under the fiscal rule can be used to meet unforeseen health expenditures and for countercyclical spending to further support the economy through recession.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; Banco de la República; monetary policy interest rate; fully-fledged inflation targeting regime; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Oil prices; Global; COVID-19; Migration
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter