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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: the Gravity Model
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Remitances are an important source of external financing in low- and middle-income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries. Standard gravity determinants, such as GDP in sending and recieiving countries, bilateral distance, existence of common borders and common official language, fit remittance flows well. Remittances also react to inflation and exchange rate movements in recipient countries to sustain their purchasing power. In line with the altruism hypothesis, remittances flow to countries with higher age dependency ratio. Remittances are countercyclical and help stabilize outputs in recipient countries. However, global shocks resulting in sharp output losses of sending countries would lead to large volatility and decline of remittance inflows in recipient countries. The results of the analysis can be used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 shock on projected remittance flows into CCA.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; country; remittance flow; international remittances; migration; gravity model; recipient country; country j; bilateral remittance; pair level; sending country; Remittances; Gravity models; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Outward remittances; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Colombia highlights that with the disruptions associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and with lower oil prices, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 2.4 percent in 2020. In the near term, disruptions associated, directly and indirectly, with the pandemic are expected to generate a recession of -2.4 percent in 2020. Weaker domestic demand from the shutdown efforts is expected to partially offset lower external demand and commodity prices, such that the current account deficit is projected to rise to 4.7 percent of GDP. In the wake of exceptional shocks and risks, recent monetary easing is welcomed by the IMF and accommodation should continue to support the economy if underlying inflation and inflation expectations remain moderate. Continued liquidity support should be provided as required, and available capital buffers in the banking system should be used as needed. All available space under the fiscal rule can be used to meet unforeseen health expenditures and for countercyclical spending to further support the economy through recession.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; Banco de la República; monetary policy interest rate; fully-fledged inflation targeting regime; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Oil prices; Global; COVID-19; Migration