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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on long-term impact of Brexit on the European Union (EU). This paper examines consequences of Brexit on the EU27 under various post-Brexit scenarios by using two different complementary approaches. Our results, which are broadly in line with recent findings in the literature, are twofold. First, Brexit would have negative effects on the EU27 as well, given the depth and the complexity of the EU-U.K. integration. Similar to various empirical studies, it has been observed that the estimated long-term output and employment losses (in percent) for the EU27 in the study are on average lower than the corresponding losses for the UK estimated in the literature. The level of output and employment are estimated to fall at most by up to 1.5 percent and 0.7 percent in the long run in the event of a ‘hard’ Brexit scenario, respectively. A “soft” Brexit outcome would lead to much lower losses.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Brexit; employment growth; job prospect; youth employment; U.K. migrant; EU-U.K. trade integration; euro area; Labor force; Employment; Unemployment; Unemployment rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Portugal: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the fiscal impact of demographic changes in Portugal and the euro area over the period 2015–2100. Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal is among the countries in the euro area that is expected to be most hurt by demographic developments. During 2015–2100, its population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent while the old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double, driven mostly by low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows. Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50, and the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; asset; lending; profitability; IMF staff calculation; banks assets; ECB's asset purchase; ECB support; bank capital level; bank asset structure; Health care spending; Aging; Pension spending; Migration; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
,
Lone Engbo Christiansen
,
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Mr. Nadeem Ilahi
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Mr. Gil Mehrez
,
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Ms. Faezeh Raei
,
Ms. Alaina P Rhee
, and
Ms. Daria V Zakharova
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Keywords:
SDN; CESEE country; CESEE emigration; labor force; CESEE emigrant; migration flow; Emigration; remittances; growth; convergence; Eastern Europe; EU migration scenario; remittance inflow; Migration; Income; Labor force participation; Baltics; Western Europe; Europe; EU policy scenario; UN migration scenario; income convergence; impact of emigration; emigration from CESEE; Skilled labor
Cover Migration and Remittances in Moldova
Migration and Remittances in Moldova
Mr. Milan M Cuc
,
Mr. Erik J. Lundback
, and
Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

Labor migration and remittances, which have increasingly become a part of the global landscape, have profound economic and social consequences. Moldova, a small low-income country where an estimated one-third of the economically active population has been working abroad, is an interesting illustration of this trend. Drawing on household survey data, this Special Issues paper explains why Moldovan workers go abroad and how their remittances are used. With this background, it provides insights into policy challenges of coping with, and maximizing benefits from, international labor mobility and the large inflows of remittances.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; IMF staff estimate; remittance; migrant; Moldovan migrant; social indicator; labor migration literature; workers' remittance; Migration; Remittances; Outward remittances; Business environment; Western Europe; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Global; emigration trend; labor migration; remittance flow
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Greece: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the growth prospects of the Greek economy. It is estimated that exceptional factors boosted growth by 1 percentage point per year in recent years and, under current trends and policies, growth is likely to drop to about 3 percent by the end of the decade. The paper places the recent strong growth performance of the Greek economy in a historical and international context. It also assesses the impact of exceptional factors on growth, and presents statistical estimates of potential growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension benefit; TFP growth; GDP growth; labor force; pension expenditure; participation rate; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Migration; Total factor productivity; Eastern Europe; Europe; publication policy; pension deficit; reader comment; evolution of pensioner; Social security contributions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cape Verde: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Cape Verde during 1990–96. After a noticeable slowdown during 1989–91, the Cape Verdean economy rebounded in 1992 and continued to expand in 1993–95, prompted by a sustained increase in public spending and the positive effects of a liberalization of economic activities. Real GDP growth averaged 4 percent during 1992–95, but domestic, economic, and financial developments were characterized by increasing imbalances. Total government expenditure increased rapidly, reaching on average 60.1 percent of GDP in 1994–95, far outpacing any growth in domestic revenues and external grants.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; state enterprise; U.S. dollar; exchange rate; foreign currency; private sector; capital expenditure; debt service; current account; Public enterprises; Income; Public sector; Wages; Migration; Africa