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International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Talent is one of the world’s most valuable resources. Countries that identify and nurture the best minds gain a competitive edge. Those that fail to do so don’t just slow their own progress—the world loses out, too. F&D magazine’s March issue examines the role of global talent and human capital through a macroeconomic lens.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights recent trends in the Kosovo labor market and emigration. Like other Western Balkan countries, Kosovo experienced a sharp decline in population over the previous decade, as emigration increased. Using a structural model of the labor market and migration, the paper examines the potential impact of further EU integration. While lower migration costs hurt the economy, productivity convergence brought on by EU integration has an offsetting impact by increasing wages, lowering unemployment, and increase immigration. Policy simulations show that policymakers have a diverse set of tools—including structural reforms, active labor market policies, business support, and labor participation support—to boost potential and support the labor market. A key result from the policy simulations is that, while the policies target various stages of the labor market, they have similar macroeconomic impacts. In this regard, it is important for policymakers to focus on policies with the largest potential impact relative to the cost of implementation. Additionally, policies should be combined with careful monitoring and updating to ensure that they remain effective and efficient.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Canadian economy appears to have achieved a soft landing: inflation has come down almost to target, while a recession has been avoided, with gross domestic product growth cushioned by surging immigration even as per capita income has shrunk. Housing unaffordability has risen to levels not seen in a generation, with demand boosted by immigration and supply facing continued challenges to expansion. Canada’s recent introduction of quantitative fiscal objectives is welcome and could be followed by adoption of a formal fiscal framework to anchor fiscal policy even more effectively. The authorities’ multipronged approach to address housing affordability is expected to yield results over time, but further efforts will likely be needed at all levels of government to address the large housing supply gap. Boosting Canada’s lagging productivity growth—including by taking steps to promote investment and R&D, harness artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies (within appropriate guardrails), and capitalize on the green transition—is a key priority for the country’s long-term prospects. Given skills gaps and demographic pressures, immigration remains a critical ingredient.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the neutral interest rate in Costa Rica. Estimates of Costa Rica’s real natural rate of interest are between 0 and 3 percent, with a suite of semistructural and univariate methods reaffirming this conclusion at close to 1 percent. This toolkit of multiple differing methods accounts for characteristics of the Costa Rican economy and suggests current monetary policy remains restrictive. Univariate estimates for Costa Rica are between those for the United States and largest regional peers. Structural changes to the Costa Rican economy, particularly in recent years, have important implications for the movement in the neutral rate. A suite of univariate methods also reaffirms this conclusion and suggests current monetary policy remains restrictive. Estimates for Costa Rica are between the United States and largest regional peers. Replicating the univariate approach for the United States and other countries in Latin America suggests Costa Rica has a somewhat lower neutral real interest rate than the largest regional peers, Brazil and Mexico, which currently appear to have neutral rates above 2 percent but above the United States.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper utilizes a new macro-model capturing food insecurity, migration and trade in Nepal. It shows that low yields and remoteness explain a majority of the difference in prevalence of food insecurity across districts in Nepal; both climate shocks and persistent climate-change increase food insecurity and disproportionately harm the most vulnerable; and lower wages in migrant destinations would reduce remittances, increase food insecurity and lower welfare. The paper then presents and quantifies a number of potential policies to address these issues. The paper quantifies the impact of a number of policy options (cash transfers, better infrastructure, and improved agricultural productivity) to address food insecurity and climate change. In addition to climate shocks, persistent climate change will lower welfare, increase food insecurity, and migration. Given the model results show that agricultural productivity is a key determinant of food security, Nepal can learn from other countries policies including in agricultural extension, improved community water management techniques, and climate resilient agriculture in line with the National Adaptation Plan.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Fund has a range of modalities and tools to cover spillovers. However, there remains scope to enhance synergies between global and country-specific spillover coverage and to foster cross-country dialogue. Practical guidance and enhanced information-sharing would also allow for more systematic surveillance of spillovers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to continue expanding the research frontier covering new spillovers and channels and developing new tools and data sets. Therefore, filling these remaining gaps in the Fund’s spillover work would allow for a more coordinated and evenhanded surveillance of spillovers.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.