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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 24 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs
Paola Giuliano
and
Antonio Spilimbergo
A growing body of work has shown that aggregate shocks affect the formation of preferences and beliefs. This article reviews evidence from sociology, social psychology, and economics to assess the relevance of aggregate shocks, whether the period in which they are experienced matters, and whether they alter preferences and beliefs permanently. We review the literature on recessions, inflation experiences, trade shocks, and aggregate non-economic shocks including migrations, wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. For each aggregate shock, we discuss the main empirical methodologies, their limitations, and their comparability across studies, outlining possible mechanisms whenever available. A few conclusions emerge consistently across the reviewed papers. First, aggregate shocks impact many preferences and beliefs, including political preferences, risk attitudes, and trust in institutions. Second, the effect of shocks experienced during young adulthood is stronger and longer lasting. Third, negative aggregate economic shocks generally move preferences and beliefs to the right of the political spectrum, while the effects of non-economic adverse shocks are more heterogeneous and depend on the context.
Keywords:
trade shock; inflation experience; effect of shock; economic shock; beliefs to the right; Economic recession; Natural disasters; Migration; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections
Cristina Cattaneo
,
Emanuele Massetti
,
Shouro Dasgupta
, and
Fabio Farinosi
We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.
Keywords:
Climate change; International Migration.; A. migration data; country-by-country emigration flow; climate scenario; climate variability; gravity equation; Migration; Natural disasters; Population growth; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Emigration, Business Dynamics, and Firm Heterogeneity in North Macedonia
Ninghui Li
and
Thomas Pihl Gade
High emigration rates are a challenge in the Western Balkans. High emigration rates might lead to inadequate skilled labor and affect firm creation, capital formation, and economic convergence. The 2021 North Macedonia census reveals that more than 12.4% of North Macedonians live abroad. To assess the consequences, we estimate the impact of emigration on the number of firms and capital formation. Business dynamics can affect emigration reversely. To alleviate the endogeneity bias, we use a shift-share instrument with the historical diaspora networks and destination countries’ GDP growth rate as a source of exogenous variations. Our results show that (1) In the short run, a 1 percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 2.91% decrease in the number of firms in the area of origin; (2) The long-run effects of emigration on the number of firms are less negative than the short-run impacts; (3) Emigration mainly reduces the number of micro and small firms; (4) Emigration affects the number of firms and capital formation more in the industrial sector than the other sectors, through the skilled labor shortage channel. This paper contributes to the literature on emigration and provides implications and policy considerations for developing countries, where high emigration rates are prevalent.
Keywords:
Emigration; Labor market; Firm dynamics; Capital formation; North Macedonia; Panel data.; emigration rate; business dynamics; firm Heterogeneity; emigration challenge; emigration effect; Migration; Unemployment rate; Industrial sector; Labor markets; Labor shortages; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate and Cross-Border Migration
Paula Beltran
and
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
Our work is positioned at the intersection of migration and climate change—two key forces shaping the economic outlook of many countries. The analysis explores: (i) the relative importance of origincountry vs destination-country factors in explaining migration patterns; (ii) importance of climate disasters as driver of cross-border migration; and (iii) the importance of climate-driven migration on the overall impact of climate on macroeconomic outcomes. It arrives at the following main findings. First, both origin-country and destination-country contribute to explaining migration outflows from EMDEs, although only the global shocks seem important for advanced economies. Second, climate disasters are important for explaining the origincountry migration shocks in LICs and EMDEs, are especially relevant for smaller countries, and lead to migration of both genders, albeit relatively more for males out of LICs. Third, important portion of climate’s overall impact on economic outcomes—especially agricultural GDP, remittances, and inequality—is captured via climate-driven migration. Finally, higher investment in climate-resilient infrastructure can reduce the impact of climate on cross-border migration, and thereby, result in potentially important economic gains.
Keywords:
International Migration; Climate; Climate Disasters; climate disaster; migration outflow; origin-country migration shock; migration pattern; climate-driven migration; Migration; Natural disasters; Climate change; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework
Diogo Baptista
,
John A Spray
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous house-holds and multiple locations to study households’ vulnerability to food insecurity from cli-mate shocks. In the model, households endogenously respond to negative climate shocks by drawing-down assets, importing food and temporarily migrating to earn additional income to ensure sufficient calories. Because these coping strategies are most effective when trade and migration costs are low, remote households are more vulnerable to climate shocks. Food insecure households are also more vulnerable, as their proximity to a subsistence requirement causes them to hold a smaller capital buffer and more aggressively dissave in response to shocks, at the expense of future consumption. We calibrate the model to 51 districts in Nepal and estimate the impact of historical climate shocks on food consumption and welfare. We estimate that, on an annual basis, floods, landslides, droughts and storms combined generated GDP losses of 2.3 percent, welfare losses of 3.3 percent for the average household and increased the rate of undernourishment by 2.8 percent. Undernourished households experience roughly 50 percent larger welfare losses and those in remote locations suffer welfare losses that are roughly two times larger than in less remote locations (5.9 vs 2.9 percent). In counterfactual simulations, we show the role of better access to migration and trade in building resilience to climate shocks.
Keywords:
Agriculture; Food Security; Trade, Migration; Climate change; Climate shocks; welfare loss; food consumption; migration cost; loss from climate; losses from climate change; Consumption; Migration; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration, Search and Skill Heterogeneity
Myrto Oikonomou
Cross-border migration can act as an important adjustment mechanism to country-specific shocks. Yet, depending on who moves, it can have unintended consequences for business cycle stability. This paper argues that the skill composition of migration plays a critical role. When migration flows become more concentrated in skilled labor an important trade-off arises. On the one hand, migration releases unemployment pressures for the origin countries. On the other hand, it generates negative compositional effects (the so-called “brain drain” effects) and skill imbalances, which reduce supply capacity in origin countries. This paper analyses quantitatively the impact of cyclical migration in an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous migration flows, trade linkages, search and matching frictions, and skill heterogeneity. I apply this framework to the case of the Greek emigration wave following the European Debt Crisis. What I find is that emigration flows implied strong negative effects for capital formation, leading to more than a 15 percentage point drop in investment. Rather than stabilizing the Greek business cycle, labor mobility led to a deeper and more protracted recession.
Keywords:
Migration; Matching Frictions; Skill Heterogeneity; emigration flow; cross-border migration; net emigration; risk-premium shock; Labor markets; Labor market frictions; Skilled labor; Labor mobility; Southern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States
Ms. Alina Carare
,
Catherine Koh
, and
Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov
Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.
Keywords:
International migration; undocumented migration; U.S. Department of Agriculture; investment decision theory; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; NT country; Migration; Real wages; Income; Unemployment rate; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
and
Patrick A. Imam
Using a new quarterly panel database on remittances (71 countries over the period 2011Q1- 2020Q4), this paper investigates the elasticity of remittances to transaction costs in a high frequency and dynamic setting. It adds to the literature by systematically exploring the heterogeneity in the cost-elasticity of remittances along several country characteristics. The findings suggest that cost reductions have a short-term positive impact on remittances, that dissipates beyond one quarter. According to our estimates, reducing transaction costs to the Sustainable Development Goal target of 3 percent could generate an additional US$32bn in remittances, higher that the direct cost savings from lower transaction costs, thus suggesting an absolute elasticity greater than one. Among remittance cost-mitigation factors, higher competition in the remittance market, a deeper financial sector, and adequate correspondent banking relationships are associated with a lower elasticity of remittance to transaction costs. Similarly, remittance cost-adaptation factors such as enhanced transparency in remittance costs, improved financial literary and higher ICT development coincide with remittances being less sensitive to transaction costs. Supplementing the panel analysis, the use of micro data from the USA-Mexico corridor confirm that migrants facing higher transaction costs tend to remit less, and that this effect is less pronounced for skilled migrants and those that have access to a bank account.
Keywords:
Remittances; Transaction Costs; Elasticity; Migration; elasticity of remittance; remittance market; remittances flow; remittance cost; cost-mitigation factor; Income; Exchange rates; Correspondent banking; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Propensity to Remit: Macro and Micro Factors Driving Remittances to Central America and the Caribbean
Hussein Bidawi
,
Paola Aliperti F. Domingues
,
Chiara Fratto
, and
Ms. Nicole Laframboise
In contrast to expectations, remittances to Central America and the Caribbean (CAC) surprised positively during 2020 and 2021. This study revisits the key macro indicators driving remittances, looks at the heterogeneous impacts of the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID shocks, then uses micro data from the U.S. Current Population Census to examine individual features of immigrant households and how this might affect the “propensity to remit”. The paper finds that remittance flows are responsive to both sending and receiving country economic conditions and that labor market conditions are particularly important determinants of remittance flows, explaining the unexpected jump in remittance flows in 2020-2021 and providing stronger predictive power when combined with income variables. Analysis of the micro data reinforces these findings, reflecting the existence of a family resource sharing model at play.
Keywords:
Migrant remittances; covid-19 pandemic; global financial crisis; elasticities.; remittance flow; micro data; labor market condition; IMF working papers; remittances to Central America and the Caribbean; migrant remittance; Remittances; Migration; Income; Labor markets; Central America; Caribbean; Global