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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 17 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections
Cristina Cattaneo
,
Emanuele Massetti
,
Shouro Dasgupta
, and
Fabio Farinosi
We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.
Keywords:
Climate change; International Migration.; A. migration data; country-by-country emigration flow; climate scenario; climate variability; gravity equation; Migration; Natural disasters; Population growth; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines macroeconomic impact of migration in Australia. Migration in Australia has historically been a significant source of population growth, with a third of the population born overseas. Migration is set to become even more important as the population natural growth rate declines. Australia attracts some of the best-educated migrants to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries who are mostly skilled workers and students, with high labor force participation rates and low unemployment. Disentangling macroeconomic effects of migration from drivers of migration is challenging, but within Australia, migration surges have historically been associated with higher growth and favorable labor market outcomes, with negligible price pressures except in the housing market. Cross-country analysis using instrumental variables confirms a positive impact of migration on macroeconomic outcomes—output, employment, and productivity—without significant inflationary impact. While housing affordability is impacted at the margin, this could represent structural supply shortages and would be best addressed by boosting supply.
Keywords:
inflow shock; labor market outcome; I. Effects of Migration shock; macroeconomic outcome; labour outcome; Migration; Labor force participation; Population growth; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States
Ms. Alina Carare
,
Catherine Koh
, and
Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov
Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.
Keywords:
International migration; undocumented migration; U.S. Department of Agriculture; investment decision theory; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; NT country; Migration; Real wages; Income; Unemployment rate; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Integration of Migrants in Europe: New Evidence from Micro Data
Giang Ho
and
Ms. Rima A Turk
This paper presents novel empirical evidence on the labor market integration of migrants across Europe. It investigates how successfully migrants integrate in 13 European countries by applying a unified framework to analyze a rich micro dataset with over ten million individuals surveyed between 1998 and 2016. Focusing on employment outcomes, we document substantial heterogeneity in the patterns of labor market integration across host countries and by migrant gender and origin. Our results also point to the importance of cohorts and network effects, initial labor market conditions, and the differential impact of education acquired domestically and abroad in determining migrants’ subsequent employment prospects. The analysis has implications for the design of effective integration policies.
Keywords:
WP; migrant; labor market; International migration; labor market integration; employment; micro data; integration speed; language skill; employment outcome; migrant status; arrival cohort; spends time; Migration; Labor markets; Unemployment; Europe; Asia and Pacific; North America