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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights recent trends in the Kosovo labor market and emigration. Like other Western Balkan countries, Kosovo experienced a sharp decline in population over the previous decade, as emigration increased. Using a structural model of the labor market and migration, the paper examines the potential impact of further EU integration. While lower migration costs hurt the economy, productivity convergence brought on by EU integration has an offsetting impact by increasing wages, lowering unemployment, and increase immigration. Policy simulations show that policymakers have a diverse set of tools—including structural reforms, active labor market policies, business support, and labor participation support—to boost potential and support the labor market. A key result from the policy simulations is that, while the policies target various stages of the labor market, they have similar macroeconomic impacts. In this regard, it is important for policymakers to focus on policies with the largest potential impact relative to the cost of implementation. Additionally, policies should be combined with careful monitoring and updating to ensure that they remain effective and efficient.
Keywords:
gender wage gap; ECB monetary policy PASSTHROUGH; EU integration; women wage; ECB policy rate Passthrough; wage gender gap; Pensions; Pension spending; Labor markets; Digitalization; Public employment; Europe; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the long-run economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom under two distinct assumptions for the post-Brexit relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. These illustrative scenarios entail different degrees of higher trade costs, a more restricted European Union migration regime and reduced foreign inward investment. A standard multicountry and multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to quantify the impact of higher trade barriers. There is substantial sectoral heterogeneity in the impact, and regions with higher concentrations of the more affected sectors are likely to confront greater losses. The empirical analysis suggests the speed of sectoral labor relocation across sectors has been relatively low in the UK. Irrespective of these empirical estimates, policies, such as retraining, would be critical to facilitate faster adjustment of the economy to the post-Brexit equilibrium thereby helping to minimize the associated costs to individuals and in aggregate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; State pension; EU membership; single market; IMF staff calculation; income effect; indexation policy; IMF UK staff; means testing; pension liability; Pensions; Pension spending; Trade barriers; Aging; Wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
El Salvador: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; emigration loss; product; emigration rate; merchandise export; credit growth; export growth El Salvador; credit allocation; Pension spending; Exports; Competition; Migration; Skilled labor; Central America; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Portugal: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the fiscal impact of demographic changes in Portugal and the euro area over the period 2015–2100. Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal is among the countries in the euro area that is expected to be most hurt by demographic developments. During 2015–2100, its population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent while the old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double, driven mostly by low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows. Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50, and the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; asset; lending; profitability; IMF staff calculation; banks assets; ECB's asset purchase; ECB support; bank capital level; bank asset structure; Health care spending; Aging; Pension spending; Migration; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Mr. Kamil Dybczak
,
Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Mauricio Soto
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Keywords:
SDN; dependency ratio; ratio; spending; Aging; Demographics; Public Debt; Pension Spending; Health Spending; Population Growth; health care; old-age dependency ratio; age-related spending; labor market; present discounted value; Health care spending; Migration; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Afford to Grow Old?
Mr. Hunter K Monroe
The demographic transition in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) now underway is rapid compared with international experience, and emigration is playing a particularly large role. This paper describes and quantifies several factors which could magnify the challenge of pension reform. First, for some ECCU countries, continued emigration at historical rates would considerably advance the projected date at which pension scheme assets are depleted. Second, there is a significant risk that assets will underperform, given the large exposures to the highly-leveraged public sector and to a lesser extent the record with private sector investments. Third, portfolio diversification away from the public sector could be complicated by age-related pressure for greater central government health spending.
Keywords:
WP; ECCU emigration rate; rate; ECCU member; OECD census data; ECCU pension reform; Pension systems; migration; ECCU pension schemes; Pensions; Pension spending; Public sector; Health care spending; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Economics of Demographics provides a detailed look at how the biggest demographic upheaval in history is affecting global development. The issue explores demographic change and the effects of population aging from a variety of angles, including pensions, health care, financial markets, and migration, and looks specifically at the impact in Europe and Asia. Picture This looks at global demographic trends, while Back to Basics explains the concept of the demographic dividend. Country Focus spotlights Kazakhstan, while People in Economics profiles Nobel prize winner Robert Mundell. IMF Economic Counsellor Raghuram Rajan argues for further change in India's style of government in his column, Straight Talk.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; sex ratio; country; ratio; shares insight
Cover Finance & Development
Finanzas y Desarrollo, septiembre de 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La demografía desde el ángulo económico es un análisis profundo de cómo la explosión demográfica más grande de la historia está afectando el desarrollo mundial. En este número se estudian la evolución demográfica y los efectos del envejecimiento de la población desde distintos puntos de vista —como las pensiones, la salud, los mercados financieros y la inmigración—, y se centra la atención en las repercusiones en Europa y Asia. En Bajo la lupa se observan las tendencias demográficas mundiales, en tanto que en Vuelta a lo esencial se explica el concepto del dividendo demográfico. En Panorama nacional se pasa revista a la situación de Kazajstán, y en Gente del mundo de la Economía se presenta un perfil de Robert Mundell, ganador del Premio Nobel. Por último, en Hablando claro, el Consejero Económico del FMI, Raghuram Rajan, plantea la necesidad de reformar aún más al estilo de gobierno en India.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; sex ratio; country; ratio; shares insight
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Economics of Demographics provides a detailed look at how the biggest demographic upheaval in history is affecting global development. The issue explores demographic change and the effects of population aging from a variety of angles, including pensions, health care, financial markets, and migration, and looks specifically at the impact in Europe and Asia. Picture This looks at global demographic trends, while Back to Basics explains the concept of the demographic dividend. Country Focus spotlights Kazakhstan, while People in Economics profiles Nobel prize winner Robert Mundell. IMF Economic Counsellor Raghuram Rajan argues for further change in India's style of government in his column, Straight Talk.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; sex ratio; country; ratio; shares insight; health expenditure; policy adjustment; world oil price; Kazakhstan's economy; Aging; Migration; Pension spending; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Greece: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the growth prospects of the Greek economy. It is estimated that exceptional factors boosted growth by 1 percentage point per year in recent years and, under current trends and policies, growth is likely to drop to about 3 percent by the end of the decade. The paper places the recent strong growth performance of the Greek economy in a historical and international context. It also assesses the impact of exceptional factors on growth, and presents statistical estimates of potential growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension benefit; TFP growth; GDP growth; labor force; pension expenditure; participation rate; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Migration; Total factor productivity; Eastern Europe; Europe; publication policy; pension deficit; reader comment; evolution of pensioner; Social security contributions