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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Times of Uncertainty: Understanding the Dynamics and Implications
Patrick A. Imam
,
Kangni R Kpodar
,
Djoulassi K. Oloufade
, and
Vigninou Gammadigbe
This paper delves into the intricate relationship between uncertainty and remittance flows. The prevailing focus has been on tangible risk factors like exchange rate volatility and economic downturn, overshadowing the potential impact of uncertainty on remittance dynamics. Leveraging a new dataset of quarterly remittances combined with uncertainty indicators across 77 developing countries from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in remittance-sending countries negatively affects remittance flows. In contrast, uncertainty in remittance receiving-countries has a more complex, dual effect. In countries with high private investment ratios, rising domestic uncertainty leads to a decline in remittances. Conversely, in countries with low public spending on education and health, remittances increase in response to uncertainy, serving as a social safety net. The paper underscores the heterogeneous and non-linear effects of domestic uncertainty on remittance flows.
Keywords:
Remittances; Uncertainty; Shocks; remittance flow; remittance dynamics; IRF of remittance; remittances in times; uncertainty indicator; Migration; Private investment; Health care spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Colombia highlights that with the disruptions associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and with lower oil prices, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 2.4 percent in 2020. In the near term, disruptions associated, directly and indirectly, with the pandemic are expected to generate a recession of -2.4 percent in 2020. Weaker domestic demand from the shutdown efforts is expected to partially offset lower external demand and commodity prices, such that the current account deficit is projected to rise to 4.7 percent of GDP. In the wake of exceptional shocks and risks, recent monetary easing is welcomed by the IMF and accommodation should continue to support the economy if underlying inflation and inflation expectations remain moderate. Continued liquidity support should be provided as required, and available capital buffers in the banking system should be used as needed. All available space under the fiscal rule can be used to meet unforeseen health expenditures and for countercyclical spending to further support the economy through recession.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; Banco de la República; monetary policy interest rate; fully-fledged inflation targeting regime; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Oil prices; Global; COVID-19; Migration
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper reviews two main issues pertaining to Austrian economy: (1) Austria's long-term fiscal sustainability in light of current tax and expenditure trends, and (2) Austria's macroeconomic challenges and opportunities due to immigration. To maintain fiscal sustainability over the longer run, Austria needs to implement a strategy based on structural expenditure consolidation. Attention to the structure of Austrian taxes and expenditure is germane because this displays important differences vis-á-vis European peers. In 2015, Austria has recorded about 90,000 asylum applicants, making it one of the top three host countries relative to its population. Austria attracts immigrant populations that improve the characteristics of its labor force.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Austria; immigrant; tax; OECD ACA; labor market; parameter combinations immigrant; immigrants influence; public expenditure; immigrants' impact; well-educated immigrant; integration policy; Migration; Aging; Health care spending; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Austria
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2015 Article IV Consultation discusses the key issues related to the economy of Austria. Austria has recovered from the global financial crisis, but the crisis still remains in bank and public sector balance sheets. Major banks have been striving to strengthen their capital and profitability positions amid regulatory and supervisory reforms. Despite lackluster growth, economic slack is limited as potential growth has fallen as well. The governing coalition of Social Democrats and the right-of-center People's Party holds a constructive dialogue on economic policy issues. Growth is estimated at 0.7 percent in 2015, a slight improvement over the ½ percent average in 2012–14, on the back of strengthening external and domestic demand.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; potential GDP growth estimate; financial market authority; authority; consultation discussion; rising emerging market risk; money market rate; crisis legacy; Fiscal stance; Migration; Labor taxes; Global; Middle East
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Mr. Kamil Dybczak
,
Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Mauricio Soto
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Keywords:
SDN; dependency ratio; ratio; spending; Aging; Demographics; Public Debt; Pension Spending; Health Spending; Population Growth; health care; old-age dependency ratio; age-related spending; labor market; present discounted value; Health care spending; Migration; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Do Interest Groups Affect U.S. Immigration Policy?
Ms. Prachi Mishra
,
Giovanni Facchini
, and
Anna Maria Mayda
While anecdotal evidence suggests that interest groups play a key role in shaping immigration policy, there is no systematic empirical analysis of this issue. In this paper, we construct an industry-level dataset for the United States, by combining information on the number of temporary work visas with data on lobbying activity associated with immigration. We find robust evidence that both pro- and anti-immigration interest groups play a statistically significant and economically relevant role in shaping migration across sectors. Barriers to migration are lower in sectors in which business interest groups incur larger lobby expenditures and higher in sectors where labor unions are more important.
Keywords:
WP; lobbying expenditure; membership rate; number of visa; native worker; political economy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of workers’ remittances on Moldova. The paper focuses on Moldova’s labor emigration since the late-1990s using survey data designed to shed light on the economic and social consequences of migration. The survey results are broadly consistent both with the findings from balance-of-payments data and with the stylized facts in the labor migration literature. The paper also examines various indicators to assess the appropriateness of the current exchange rate level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; enterprise; government; migrant; privatization program; Moldovan migrant; enterprise privatization; remittances inflow; workers' remittance; Migration; Corporate income tax; Remittances; Privatization; Budget planning and preparation; Western Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United States: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the role of information and communication technology (ICT) in the recent acceleration of labor productivity growth in the United States. The analysis reveals that the increase of total factor productivity (TFP) growth is a broad phenomenon that encompasses non-ICT producing sectors, consistent with the view that ICT is a “general purpose technology.” The paper investigates whether the productivity boom may have dampened employment in recent years. It also assesses the contribution of immigrants to the United State economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; income tax; taxpayer; information and communication technology; Fed official; TFP growth; inflation-output tradeoff; Fed's mandate; WTO membership; Migration; Income and capital gains taxes; Income tax systems; Global; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada
Mr. Phillip L Swagel
,
Mr. Steven V Dunaway
, and
Mr. Martin D Kaufman
Differences in per capita output across Canadian provinces have narrowed less than disparities in per capita income in past decades. Using a panel regression framework, this paper studies the differential impact of federal transfer programs on output convergence. The evidence suggests that while the Employment Insurance (EI) system seems to have had a significant negative effect on output convergence?by discouraging migration within Canada?the Equalization transfers may have helped spur convergence. The EI system, despite reforms introduced in the 1990s, still appears to contain features that deter labor mobility.
Keywords:
WP; employment insurance; EI transfer; employment insurance system; equation; Canada; regional convergence; federal transfers; migration; EI generosity; EI benefit; migration equation; Disposable income; Public expenditure review; Employment; Unemployment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration and Human Capital Formation: Theory and Evidence From the U.S. High School Movement
Mr. Rodney Ramcharan
In 1910, 12 percent of American 14-17 year olds were enrolled in high school; by 1930, enrollment had increased to 50 percent; enrollment in Britain was 12 percent in 1950. This paper argues that by increasing the skill premium, the massive inflows of European unskilled immigrants at the turn of the twentieth century engendered America's sharp rise in human capital investment. The increased enrollments raised the supply of schools, leading to continued schooling investment. Cross section evidence and a VAR analysis of the time series data support the hypothesized role of immigration in generating the high school movement.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; time series; private cost; factor movements; human capital formation; skill premium; immigration flow; population movement; Migration; Skilled labor; Europe