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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Colombia highlights that with the disruptions associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and with lower oil prices, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 2.4 percent in 2020. In the near term, disruptions associated, directly and indirectly, with the pandemic are expected to generate a recession of -2.4 percent in 2020. Weaker domestic demand from the shutdown efforts is expected to partially offset lower external demand and commodity prices, such that the current account deficit is projected to rise to 4.7 percent of GDP. In the wake of exceptional shocks and risks, recent monetary easing is welcomed by the IMF and accommodation should continue to support the economy if underlying inflation and inflation expectations remain moderate. Continued liquidity support should be provided as required, and available capital buffers in the banking system should be used as needed. All available space under the fiscal rule can be used to meet unforeseen health expenditures and for countercyclical spending to further support the economy through recession.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; Banco de la República; monetary policy interest rate; fully-fledged inflation targeting regime; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Oil prices; Global; COVID-19; Migration
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?
Patrick A. Imam
and
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
This paper analyzes the impact of citizenship laws on economic development. We first document the evolution of citizenship laws around the world, highlighting the main features of jus soli, jus sanguinis as well as mixed regimes, and shedding light on the channels through which they could have differentiated impact on economic development. We then compile a data set of citizenship laws around the world. Using cross-country regressions, panel-data techniques, as well as the synthetic control method and subjecting the results to a battery of tests, we find robust evidence that jus soli laws—being more inclusive—lead to higher income levels than alternative citizenship rules in developing countries, though to a less extent in countries with stronger institutional environment.
Keywords:
WP; citizenship law; economic development; dummy variable; law country; country authorities; naturalization law; Citizenship laws; legal origin; Western Hemisphere country; regime country; government activity; country of immigrant; common law country; civil law; country's citizenship; sub-Saharan country; civil law country; Personal income; Migration; Legal support in revenue administration; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation Report—"The IMF and Fragile States"
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
and
Review Department
This management implementation plan (MIP) proposes actions to advance the Board-endorsed recommendations of the IEO evaluation “The IMF and Fragile States.” The actions outlined below would have resource implications. While some can be covered by reallocating resources or are already in the Work Program, others may require temporary funding; a review of staffing allocations to countries in fragile and conflict situations (FCS) might call for new permanent resources. The actions are broad in scope and self-reinforcing in effect if adopted as a package. They include: - Message of high-level commitment: Reflecting the actions of this MIP, a Management statement underscoring a strengthened institutional commitment to support FCS accompanies the MIP for Executive Board and IMFC endorsement. - An effective institutional mechanism: A high-level interdepartmental FCS Committee that reports to and seeks guidance in a formal meeting with management twice a year, will be established. The Committee will be tasked to analyze internal and external coordination issues in FCS and propose new ways tostrengthen engagement. An interdepartmental Technical Taskforce will support the Committee and report on progress in implementing this MIP, including through a Board paper on Review of FCS Engagement at end-2020. - Country engagement strategies: FCS teams will develop country engagement strategies that, drawing on relevant external expertise, will explicitly allow for thesocial and political context and the factors underpinning fragility; and lay the basis for full integration of capacity development (CD) with surveillance and lending. - Providing more sustained financial support: Staff is reviewing the lending toolkit for low-income countries to provide more tailored and flexible support, including for FCS, while ensuring uniformity of treatment. Staff will report on efforts to support FCS with protracted arrears to the Fund in the upcoming reviews of overdue financial obligations. - Practical steps to increase the impact of its CD support: Measures already in train will be complemented by the forthcoming Capacity Development (CD) Strategy Review’s assessment of initiatives to better integrate CD and Surveillance, including in FCS. Staff will also review the experience with provision of statistical and financial CD in FCS. And consideration will be given to establishing a FCS multi-donor trust fund or another suitable financing vehicle to address unmet needs for long-term experts. - Human Resources (HR) issues: The forthcoming phase of the HR Strategy will look into strategic workforce and career planning, including recruitment, and will consider actions to ensure that the Fund has appropriate staff expertise and experience to work effectively in fragile states. This will include the introduction of a “career” playbook that provides incentives for staff to be more responsive to the needs of the Fund in FCS. Adequacy of staffing allocations to FCS missions will be reviewed to ensure evenhanded treatment of the membership. Staff training on FCS will also be stepped up.
Keywords:
PP; implementation plan; financial support; plan; implementation; country; Board reaction; successor Board paper; Board guidance; field staff presence; Human resources in revenue administration; Human capital; Fiscal stabilization; Terrorism; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines migration patterns in Norway and their implications for estimates of potential output. It applies a new methodology proposed by Borio and others (2013) to estimate potential output by drawing on information about immigration and oil price movements. The paper also provides an overview of the recent trend in immigration in Norway and discusses various estimates of potential output using standard approaches. The results indicate that immigration plays a small but statistically significant role in the estimation of potential output for Norway. The data show that immigration inflows into Norway vary across source countries. The largest share of immigrants is from Poland, accounting for 15 percent of the total in 2012. Immigration patterns in Norway contain both cyclical and structural elements, but the latter seems dominant at least for now. Empirical results also suggest that immigration plays some role in determining potential output, however, its impact is quite small, consistent with the view that the recent immigration patterns are structural.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; enterprise; HP filter; output gap estimate; mainland GDP output gap; autoregressive output gap term; telecom company; Productivity; Migration; Potential output; Personal income; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Survey
Bulletin du FMI vol. 35, n° 5, mars 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; SDR; Scaling-up scenario; IMF participation
Cover IMF Survey
Boletín del FMI Vol.35, No.5 marzo 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El Boletín del FMI aborda de manera específica el trabajo del FMI y los grandes temas macroeconómicos y financieros internacionales y ofrece análisis sobre la evolución en los distintos países y regiones y en el mundo; información sobre las operaciones, políticas, reformas y asistencia técnica del FMI; síntesis de las principales investigaciones económicas mundiales; datos fundamentales que no suelen estar disponibles en otras fuentes, e informes sobre debates económicos y financieros que tienen lugar dentro y fuera del FMI. Este boletín de 16 páginas, publicado 12 veces al año, está orientado a una vasta audiencia, que incluye autoridades de política económica, analistas, profesionales del mundo académico y de los medios de difusión y estudiantes. Disponible en inglés, español y francés.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; SDR; Scaling-up scenario; IMF participation
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 35, Issue 05
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
IMF pandemic preparations; enlarged EU: labor, capital; Asia outlook bright; India: reforms and growth; Italy: gloomy outlook; IMF sanctions on Zimbabwe; Friedman: morals, growth; central bank communications; effective use of increased aid.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; SDR; Scaling-up scenario; IMF participation; IMF HIPC assistance; IMF quota; IMF-World Bank spring meeting; central bank communications; Migration; Communications in revenue administration; Personal income; Exports; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes macroeconomic fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The paper describes data, along with the estimation technique used to ensure stationarity of the data. The empirical regularities of macroeconomic fluctuations in the ECCU are described, examining the relationship between a set of macroeconomic time series and domestic output, for each of the six IMF members of the ECCU. The paper also explores the determinants of macroeconomic volatility in the ECCU.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECCU country; emigration loss; government; ECCU economy; ECCU government; member government; Migration; Exchange rate arrangements; Fiscal stance; Natural disasters; Caribbean; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United States: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the role of information and communication technology (ICT) in the recent acceleration of labor productivity growth in the United States. The analysis reveals that the increase of total factor productivity (TFP) growth is a broad phenomenon that encompasses non-ICT producing sectors, consistent with the view that ICT is a “general purpose technology.” The paper investigates whether the productivity boom may have dampened employment in recent years. It also assesses the contribution of immigrants to the United State economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; income tax; taxpayer; information and communication technology; Fed official; TFP growth; inflation-output tradeoff; Fed's mandate; WTO membership; Migration; Income and capital gains taxes; Income tax systems; Global; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Staff Report for the 2001 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2001 Article IV Consultation highlights that since early 2001, domestic demand growth has recovered in New Zealand and contributed to sustain GDP growth in the wake of weaker net exports, owing to the economic slowdown in the rest of the world. The sharp rise in economic activity pushed the economy to a high level of resource use, as capacity utilization rates rose markedly in 2001. An improvement in business and consumer confidence in the first months of 2002 suggests that domestic demand is likely to maintain its momentum in the first half of 2002.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; economy; reserve bank of New Zealand; growth potential; economic growth prospect; government; New Zealand dollar; employment growth; wage inflation; Inflation; Exchange rates; Migration; Global; Australia and New Zealand