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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs
Paola Giuliano
and
Antonio Spilimbergo
A growing body of work has shown that aggregate shocks affect the formation of preferences and beliefs. This article reviews evidence from sociology, social psychology, and economics to assess the relevance of aggregate shocks, whether the period in which they are experienced matters, and whether they alter preferences and beliefs permanently. We review the literature on recessions, inflation experiences, trade shocks, and aggregate non-economic shocks including migrations, wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. For each aggregate shock, we discuss the main empirical methodologies, their limitations, and their comparability across studies, outlining possible mechanisms whenever available. A few conclusions emerge consistently across the reviewed papers. First, aggregate shocks impact many preferences and beliefs, including political preferences, risk attitudes, and trust in institutions. Second, the effect of shocks experienced during young adulthood is stronger and longer lasting. Third, negative aggregate economic shocks generally move preferences and beliefs to the right of the political spectrum, while the effects of non-economic adverse shocks are more heterogeneous and depend on the context.
Keywords:
trade shock; inflation experience; effect of shock; economic shock; beliefs to the right; Economic recession; Natural disasters; Migration; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico
Zsoka Koczan
and
Franz Loyola
The poverty-reducing effects of remittances have been well-documented, however, their effects on inequality are less clear. This paper examines the impact of remittances on inequality in Mexico using household-level information on the receiving side. It hopes to speak to their insurance role by examining how remittances are affected by domestic and external crises: the 1994 Mexican Peso crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. We find that remittances lower inequality, and that they become more pro-poor over time as migration opportunities become more widespread. This also strengthens their insurance effects, mitigating some of the negative impact of shocks on the poorest.
Keywords:
WP; center; Gini coefficient; remittance; remittance receipt; No. of elderly; Migration; remittances; inequality; migration opportunity; income distribution migrant; remittances relative; remittance-receiving household; No. of child; determinants of remittance; decile point; migration flow; Income; Income distribution; Income inequality; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries
Giulia Bettin
,
Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
, and
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
This paper examines how international remittances are affected by structural characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, and adverse shocks in both source and recipient economies. We exploit a novel, rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to 107 developing countries over the period 2005-2011. We find that remittances are negatively correlated with the business cycle in recipient countries, and increase in response to adverse exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters or large declines in the terms of trade. Remittances are positively correlated with economic conditions in the source province. Nevertheless, in the presence of similar negative shocks to both source and recipient economies, remittances remain counter-cyclical with respect to the recipient country.
Keywords:
WP; remittance corridor; bilateral remittance; remittances outflow; transfer cost; remittance inflow; Remittances; Shocks; Business cycle; Vulnerability; Gravity model; Migration; Financial sector development; Business cycles; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Technology is generating a global convergence. A "big bang" of information—and education as well—is improving human lives. And with global interconnectivity growing by leaps and bounds, we are all witness to a rapid spread of information and ideas. But, as we have seen from the prolonged global financial crisis, our interconnectedness carries grave risks as well as benefits. This issue of F&D looks at different aspects of interconnectedness, globally and in Asia. • Brookings VP Kemal Devis presents the three fundamental trends in the global economy affecting the balance between east and west in "World Economy: Convergence, Interdependence, and Divergence." • In "Financial Regionalism," Akihiro Kawai and Domenico Lombardi tell us how regional arrangements are helping global financial stability. • In "Migration Meets Slow Growth," Migration Policy Institute president Demetrios Papademetriou examines how the global movement of workers will change as the economic crisis continues in advanced economies. • "Caught in the Web" explains new ways of looking at financial interconnections in a globalized world. • IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde provides her take on the benefits of integration and the risks of fragmentation in "Straight Talk." Also in this issue, we take a closer look at interconnectedness across Asia as we explore how trade across the region is affected by China's falling trade surplus, how India and China might learn from each others' success, and what Myanmar's reintegration into the global economy means for its people. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Justin Yifu Lin, first developing country World Bank economist, and the Back to Basics series explains the origins and evolution of money.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; China; financial institution; price; IMF study; IMF staff assessment; globalized economy; shrinking world; IMF staff; Migration; Financial sector stability; Fiscal rules; Exports; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; China; financial institution; price; IMF study
Cover Finance & Development
Finansy I razvitie, September 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; China; financial institution; price; IMF study
Cover Finance & Development
Finanzas & Desarrollo, septiembre de 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Suscríbase a Finanzas & Desarrollo para mantenerse al día de las últimas corrientes del pensamiento económico en lo que respecta al sistema financiero internacional, la política monetaria, el desarrollo económico, la reducción de la pobreza y otras cuestiones de importancia fundamental. Esta amena revista trimestral ofrece análisis profundos de técnicos del FMI y respetados expertos internacionales sobre estas y otras cuestiones. Los artículos están redactados teniendo en mira al lector no especializado interesado en comprender el funcionamiento de la economía mundial y las políticas y actividades del FMI.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; China; financial institution; price; IMF study
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; China; financial institution; price; IMF study
Cover Finance & Development
Finances & Développement, septembre 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Pour les dernières idées sur le système financier international, la politique monétaire, le développement économique, la lutte contre la pauvreté et d’autres questions importantes, abonnez-vous à Finances & Développement (F&D). Ce trimestriel attrayant présente des analyses approfondies sur ces thèmes et d'autres sujets, rédigées par les membres des services du FMI ainsi que par des experts de renommée internationale. Les articles sont écrits pour les non-spécialistes qui souhaitent enrichir leur compréhension des rouages de l'économie mondiale et des politiques et activités du FMI.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; China; financial institution; price; IMF study
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, June 1999
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; enterprise; government; market; state; transition country; banking crisis; CIS country; state monopoly; enterprise manager; Inflation; Privatization; Migration; Commercial banks; Banking crises; Caribbean; Europe; Baltics; Global; Eastern Europe