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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications
Francesca Caselli
,
Huidan Huidan Lin
,
Frederik G Toscani
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023. The recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand, with around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 filled by non-EU citizens, while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows. Ukrainian refugees also appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries. The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area (of around 2 million workers) is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—slightly less than half the euro area’s annual potential GDP growth at that time—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives. This highlights the important role immigration can play in attenuating the effects of the Europe’s challenging demographic outlook. On the flipside, the large inflow had initial fiscal costs and likely led to some congestion of local public services such as schooling. Policy efforts should thus seek to continue to integrate migrants into the labor force while making sure that the supply of public services and amenities (including at the local level) keeps up with the population increase.
Keywords:
Migration; Labor Markets; European Union; migration perception; net migration; integration policy; EU citizen; migration development; Labor shortages; Aging; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Why U.S. Immigration Matters for the Global Advancement of Science
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Patrick Gaulé
, and
Geoff Smith
This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.
Keywords:
Immigration; Science; Talent; Universities; WP; IMO medalist; migrants to the U.S.; IMO participant; productivity regression; IMO point; Migration; Productivity; Income; Global
Cover Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
How to Get Back on the Fast Track
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 1½ percent from 4¼ percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.

Keywords:
REO; country; CIS economy; CESEE country; inflation; CESEE economy; investment rate; monetary policy autonomy; CESEE region; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Minimum wages; Income; Domestic savings; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the prospects for Latvia continuing to rapidly reduce its distance from the productivity frontier. It looks at the empirical record of countries that have in the past attained a similar relative level of income to that of Latvia at present, to gauge the plausibility of the forecast for Latvia’s medium term GDP growth of about 4 percent per year. It highlights that more than one-third of the countries reaching a similar stage of development managed to sustain higher subsequent growth. The paper also confirms the importance of investment and structural reforms for Latvia’s future convergence, using a sector-level analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; employment ratio; growth decomposition; multifactor productivity convergence; employment growth; extent emigration; productivity frontier; Migration; Productivity; Labor productivity; Employment; Eastern Europe; Europe; Africa; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines migration patterns in Norway and their implications for estimates of potential output. It applies a new methodology proposed by Borio and others (2013) to estimate potential output by drawing on information about immigration and oil price movements. The paper also provides an overview of the recent trend in immigration in Norway and discusses various estimates of potential output using standard approaches. The results indicate that immigration plays a small but statistically significant role in the estimation of potential output for Norway. The data show that immigration inflows into Norway vary across source countries. The largest share of immigrants is from Poland, accounting for 15 percent of the total in 2012. Immigration patterns in Norway contain both cyclical and structural elements, but the latter seems dominant at least for now. Empirical results also suggest that immigration plays some role in determining potential output, however, its impact is quite small, consistent with the view that the recent immigration patterns are structural.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; enterprise; HP filter; output gap estimate; mainland GDP output gap; autoregressive output gap term; telecom company; Productivity; Migration; Potential output; Personal income; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United States: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the role of information and communication technology (ICT) in the recent acceleration of labor productivity growth in the United States. The analysis reveals that the increase of total factor productivity (TFP) growth is a broad phenomenon that encompasses non-ICT producing sectors, consistent with the view that ICT is a “general purpose technology.” The paper investigates whether the productivity boom may have dampened employment in recent years. It also assesses the contribution of immigrants to the United State economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; income tax; taxpayer; information and communication technology; Fed official; TFP growth; inflation-output tradeoff; Fed's mandate; WTO membership; Migration; Income and capital gains taxes; Income tax systems; Global; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Convergence of Per Capita Output Levels Across Regions of Bangladesh, 1982-97
Mr. Akhtar Akhtar Hossain
This paper has examined the phenomenon of convergence of per capita output levels across regions of Bangladesh during 1982–97. The main finding is that most of the regions of Bangladesh experienced strong convergence of per capita output levels during 1982–91. There are two other findings within the domain of convergence. First, a few poorer regions of the country did not demonstrate any output convergence for the full or part of the sample period. Second, no evidence has been found for regional convergence of per capita output levels during 1991–97 that coincided with opening up the economy.
Keywords:
WP; output level; regression equation; Bangladesh economy; country map; Gulf country; beta convergence; per capita income; standard deviation; lagging country; Personal income; Production growth; Population growth; Migration; East Asia; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Global