Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework
Diogo Baptista
,
John A Spray
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous house-holds and multiple locations to study households’ vulnerability to food insecurity from cli-mate shocks. In the model, households endogenously respond to negative climate shocks by drawing-down assets, importing food and temporarily migrating to earn additional income to ensure sufficient calories. Because these coping strategies are most effective when trade and migration costs are low, remote households are more vulnerable to climate shocks. Food insecure households are also more vulnerable, as their proximity to a subsistence requirement causes them to hold a smaller capital buffer and more aggressively dissave in response to shocks, at the expense of future consumption. We calibrate the model to 51 districts in Nepal and estimate the impact of historical climate shocks on food consumption and welfare. We estimate that, on an annual basis, floods, landslides, droughts and storms combined generated GDP losses of 2.3 percent, welfare losses of 3.3 percent for the average household and increased the rate of undernourishment by 2.8 percent. Undernourished households experience roughly 50 percent larger welfare losses and those in remote locations suffer welfare losses that are roughly two times larger than in less remote locations (5.9 vs 2.9 percent). In counterfactual simulations, we show the role of better access to migration and trade in building resilience to climate shocks.
Keywords:
Agriculture; Food Security; Trade, Migration; Climate change; Climate shocks; welfare loss; food consumption; migration cost; loss from climate; losses from climate change; Consumption; Migration; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses interactions between external risks and the New Zealand economy. The current set of external risks has the potential to be extremely damaging to New Zealand, but two factors would likely mitigate the economic impact. First, the flexible exchange rate regime is a reliable shock absorber and automatic stabilizer from the perspective of GDP, although it leads to a rebalancing between the domestic and external sectors in the economy. Second, net migration flows can reduce the negative impact of lower external demand under some circumstances, such as a growth slowdown in Australia. Fiscal policy could also offset some of the short-term costs of adjustment. Fiscal policy can provide stimulus at relatively small and manageable cost to the already-low government debt to GDP ratio. Moreover, at the current juncture, fiscal policy might need to provide the bulk of policy support against negative shocks, as monetary policy might be ineffective if has become constrained by an effective lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; price; welfare advantage; Consumption-equivalent welfare index; wellbeing indicator; income growth; living standard framework; Financial sector stability; Consumption; Macroprudential policy; Income; Migration; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration and Remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean: Engines of Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilizers?
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Ms. Svetlana Cerovic
,
Misael Galdamez
,
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Franz Loyola
,
Zsoka Koczan
,
Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik
,
Mr. Jan Kees Martijn
,
Ms. Yulia Ustyugova
, and
Joyce Wong
Outward migration has been an important phenomenon for countries in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC), particularly those in Central America and the Caribbean. This paper examines recent trends in outward migration from and remittances to LAC, as well as their costs and benefits. For the home country, the negative impact from emigration on labor resources and productivity seems to outweigh growth gains from remittances, notably for the Caribbean. However, given emigration, remittance flows play key financing and stabilizing roles in Central America and the Caribbean. They facilitate private consumption smoothing, support financial sector stability and fiscal revenues, and help reduce poverty and inequality, without strong evidence for harmful competitiveness effects through shifts in the real exchange rate.
Keywords:
WP; remittance inflow; economic migration; cost of remittance; remittance flow; remittances emigrant; International Migration; Remittances; Latin America; Caribbean; GDP ratio; remittances-recipient country; remittance sender; remittance transaction; remittance corridor; Gini coefficient; Migration; Income; Consumption; South America; Central America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes household balance sheet structure in Denmark and sensitivity to rising rates. Households in Denmark have gotten considerably wealthier in recent decades. High household assets, in particular in the mandatory pension system and housing, provide stability by funding future consumption and protecting against shocks. The high, but mostly illiquid, assets have a counterpart, however, in the high household debt, as households often need to borrow to consume or buy property. The resulting combination of large assets and liabilities on household balance sheets make the Danish economy sensitive to interest-rate changes. Sudden increases in interest rates can create macroeconomic instability via their impact on the debt service of households and knock-on effects on consumption.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; migrant; firm; employment probability; integration outcome; demand condition; sales growth; migrants to Denmark; Migration; Consumption; Disposable income; Income; Europe; Global; Northern Europe
Cover Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
How to Get Back on the Fast Track
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 1½ percent from 4¼ percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.

Keywords:
REO; country; CIS economy; CESEE country; inflation; CESEE economy; investment rate; monetary policy autonomy; CESEE region; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Minimum wages; Income; Domestic savings; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia investigates the macroeconomic impact of remittances on long-run external sustainability and growth. The paper presents stylized facts pertaining to the characteristics of remittances in Macedonia, highlighting their countercyclicality and importance in sustaining the purchasing power of domestic agents. The paper reviews to help set up a theoretical framework for assessing their macroeconomic impact, highlighting the possible risk of “Dutch disease” developments. The paper uses a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model to empirically investigate both hypotheses of countercyclicality and Dutch disease effects and puts forward a few policy options that may be explored to better harness remittances to support investment and long-term growth. The paper suggests that strong political engagement in support of diaspora projects is a key point. The mobilization of diaspora savings for private and public investment would maximize the long-term benefits of remittances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remittance; GDP; Macedonia; financing; exchange rate; exogenous remittance; remittance transfer; central bank; workers' remittance; foreign currency; remittance shock; small business; FYR Macedonia; interest rate; excess demand; bond feature; Remittances; Outward remittances; Real exchange rates; Migration; Bonds; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Microeconomic Implications of Remittances in an Overlapping Generations Model with Altruism and Self-Interest
Tigran A. Melkonyan
and
Mr. David A. Grigorian
The paper explicitly models the dynamic strategic aspects of the interaction between the migrant and the remittance-receiving relative(s), with the migrant behaving as a Stackelberg leader. It is also different from other formalizations of remittance behavior in its treatment of the two parties' interaction to realize potential gains from exchange. We demonstrate that when the migrant and the relative(s) cooperate to maximize the joint utility of the household, this leads to higher level of remittances as well as investment and hours worked by the relative(s). We use data from Armenia to test our predictions regarding implications of remittances flows on behavior of receiving households. Consistent with our predictions, remittance-receiving households work fewer hours and spend less on the education of their children. While saving more, these households are not leveraging their savings to borrow from the banking system to expand their business activities. This evidence suggests that the benefits of remittances might be overstated and emphasizes the importance of measuring their impact in a general- rather than a partial-equilibrium context.
Keywords:
WP; utility function
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the effect of international migration on unemployment in New Zealand. The empirical results in this paper suggest that net migration inflows give rise to a fall in the unemployment rate. The paper estimates a system of equations including the unemployment rate, real wage, net migration rate, and labor force participation rate, taking into account the interdependence of the variables. It also examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on export firms’ decisions to hedge foreign exchange exposure.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; OECD labor market Data.; interest rate; consumer spending; productivity; migration inflow; OECD labor market data; boosting productivity; household debt; OECD standard; Migration; Aging; Exchange rates; Consumption; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Burden and Migration: A Political Economy Perspective
Efraim Sadka
and
Assaf Razin
The extent of taxation and redistribution policy is generally determined at a political-economy equilibrium by a balance between those who gain and those who lose from a more extensive tax-transfer policy. In a stylized model of migration and human capital formation, we find, somewhat against conventional wisdom, that low-skill migration may lead to a lower tax burden and less redistribution than no migration, even though the migrants join the pro-tax coalition.
Keywords:
WP; math; mover accent; migration quota; tax-transfer policy; equilibrium tax rate; equilibrium migration condition; income gap; low-skill migrant; Migration; Consumption; Tax incidence