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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
How to Get Back on the Fast Track
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 1½ percent from 4¼ percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.

Keywords:
REO; country; CIS economy; CESEE country; inflation; CESEE economy; investment rate; monetary policy autonomy; CESEE region; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Minimum wages; Income; Domestic savings; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Greece: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the growth prospects of the Greek economy. It is estimated that exceptional factors boosted growth by 1 percentage point per year in recent years and, under current trends and policies, growth is likely to drop to about 3 percent by the end of the decade. The paper places the recent strong growth performance of the Greek economy in a historical and international context. It also assesses the impact of exceptional factors on growth, and presents statistical estimates of potential growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension benefit; TFP growth; GDP growth; labor force; pension expenditure; participation rate; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Migration; Total factor productivity; Eastern Europe; Europe; publication policy; pension deficit; reader comment; evolution of pensioner; Social security contributions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper presents an empirical comparison of New Zealand’s growth performance with that of Australia during the post-reform period. The paper shows that most of the divergence in income per capita between the two countries has been the result of lower accumulation of capital per hour worked, and to a lesser extent, lower efficiency in utilizing resources in New Zealand. The paper also examines how migration has affected the income and welfare of New Zealand nationals.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; price; pass-through; import price; exchange rate pass-through; wage difference; error correction model; household portfolio; Migration; Import prices; Exchange rates; Inflation; Exchange rate pass-through; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
El Salvador: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper analyzes economic developments in El Salvador during 1990–97. The paper assesses the prospects of the Salvadoran economy in facing the new challenges coming from its reinsertion into the global economy. The paper describes the evolution of trade competitiveness and evaluates the divergence from equilibrium of the real effective exchange rate. It concludes that the exchange rate behavior in the last decade appears to have followed roughly the path predicted by a long-term equilibrium exchange rate model consistent with a current account deficit of about 2 percent of GDP.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector investment; trade competitiveness; INSEPRO incident; remittances model; accumulated exchange rate appreciation; emigration data; equilibrium exchange rate; maquila export; Exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Remittances; Total factor productivity; Outward remittances; Western Hemisphere; Central America; Global