Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia
,
Mr. Ermal Hitaj
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Arina Viseth
, and
Mustafa Yenice
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
Mr. Ralph Chami
,
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
,
Anjali Garg
, and
Connel Fullenkamp
Using data on the distribution of migrants from Africa, GDP growth forecasts for host countries, and after estimating remittance multipliers in recipient countries, this paper estimates the impact of the global economic crisis on African GDP via the remittance channel during 2009-2010. It forecasts remittance declines into African countries of between 3 and 14 percentage points, with migrants to Europe hardest hit while migrants within Africa relatively unaffected by the crisis. The estimated impact on GDP for relatively remittance-dependent countries is 2 percent for 2009, but will likely be short-lived, as host country income is projected to rise in 2010.
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Ms. Smita Wagh
This paper assesses the impact of the steadily growing remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Though the region receives only a small portion of the total recorded remittances to developing countries, and the volume of aid flows to SSA swamps remittances, this paper finds that remittances, which are a stable, private transfer, have a direct poverty mitigating effect, and promote financial development. These findings hold even after factoring in the reverse causality between remittances, poverty and financial development. The paper posits that formalizing such flows can serve as an effective access point for "unbanked" individuals and households, and that the effective use of such flows can mitigate the costs of skilled out-migration in SSA.
International Monetary Fund
In the last decade Cape Verde has experienced a strong accumulation of emigrant deposits. These deposits have provided much needed foreign exchange to the country, adding support to the exchange rate peg. This paper studies the long-run determinants of emigrant deposits with respect to risk, wealth, and return variables, isolating speculative and altruistic motives underlying the accumulation of flows. The study suggests that the temporary character of recent emigration is responsible for the rise in the share of flows driven by altruism. Finally, the paper discusses policy implications in light of the empirical findings and the recent literature on this topic.
International Monetary Fund
The Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix on Cape Verde review determinants of emigrant deposits (ED). EDs have provided a substantial source of foreign exchange to the Cape Verdean economy, and have been vital in maintaining the fixed exchange rate. Prospects for growth in Cape Verde are improving and immigration legislation abroad is tightening. Both trends argue against further accumulation of ED. Among the developments in favor of ED, of considerable importance is their past stability, the limited convertibility of deposits, the favorable business outlook, and the stable political climate.
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Cape Verde during 1990–96. After a noticeable slowdown during 1989–91, the Cape Verdean economy rebounded in 1992 and continued to expand in 1993–95, prompted by a sustained increase in public spending and the positive effects of a liberalization of economic activities. Real GDP growth averaged 4 percent during 1992–95, but domestic, economic, and financial developments were characterized by increasing imbalances. Total government expenditure increased rapidly, reaching on average 60.1 percent of GDP in 1994–95, far outpacing any growth in domestic revenues and external grants.