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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Preempting and Mitigating Spillovers
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Fund has a range of modalities and tools to cover spillovers. However, there remains scope to enhance synergies between global and country-specific spillover coverage and to foster cross-country dialogue. Practical guidance and enhanced information-sharing would also allow for more systematic surveillance of spillovers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to continue expanding the research frontier covering new spillovers and channels and developing new tools and data sets. Therefore, filling these remaining gaps in the Fund’s spillover work would allow for a more coordinated and evenhanded surveillance of spillovers.
Keywords:
spillover discussion; WEO spillover chapter; spillover coverage; transparency policy; Policy spillover; Spillovers; COVID-19; International monetary system; Migration; Financial sector stability; Global; Trade tensions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on Venezuelan migration and the labor market. Over 2 million migrants have crossed the border from Venezuela and continue to join Colombia’s labor market—which remains weak overall with rising unemployment and falling participation. There is so far little evidence of displacement effects on account of immigration, however, as the Colombian informal sector has capably absorbed most of the migrant inflow. A more granular view of Colombia’s local labor markets does not show weaker employment outcomes in those that have received the most migrants. However, with many of these workers being highly skilled and attached to the informal sector, evidence of labor misallocation highlights the need to continue integration policies. The government is conducting efforts to accelerate the validation of Venezuelan degrees for easing the integration of professional migrants and high-school educated migrants who wish to continue their university studies in Colombia.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Colombian peso; trading partner; export volume; price effect; oil price shock; dollar export values contract; non-traditional export; Exports; Depreciation; Labor markets; Migration; Labor force participation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the long-run economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom under two distinct assumptions for the post-Brexit relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. These illustrative scenarios entail different degrees of higher trade costs, a more restricted European Union migration regime and reduced foreign inward investment. A standard multicountry and multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to quantify the impact of higher trade barriers. There is substantial sectoral heterogeneity in the impact, and regions with higher concentrations of the more affected sectors are likely to confront greater losses. The empirical analysis suggests the speed of sectoral labor relocation across sectors has been relatively low in the UK. Irrespective of these empirical estimates, policies, such as retraining, would be critical to facilitate faster adjustment of the economy to the post-Brexit equilibrium thereby helping to minimize the associated costs to individuals and in aggregate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; State pension; EU membership; single market; IMF staff calculation; income effect; indexation policy; IMF UK staff; means testing; pension liability; Pensions; Pension spending; Trade barriers; Aging; Wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
El Salvador: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; emigration loss; product; emigration rate; merchandise export; credit growth; export growth El Salvador; credit allocation; Pension spending; Exports; Competition; Migration; Skilled labor; Central America; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific
Cover Departmental Papers
A Work in Progress: Integrating Markets for Goods, Labor, and Capital in the East African Community
Mr. Emre Alper
,
Ms. Wenjie Chen
,
Mr. Jemma Dridi
,
Mr. Herve Joly
, and
Mr. Fan Yang
This paper assesses the extent of economic and financial integration among the East African Community (EAC) along a number of dimensions and, where possible, whether integration has increased in the wake of the major regional integration policy milestones.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; EAC country; country; Uganda; Kenya; Rwanda; EAC Cm scorecard; partner state; EAC citizen; EAC member states; excl. EAC; EAC secretariat; Imports; Migration; Direction of trade; Tariffs; Capital controls; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; North America
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2016
World Economic Outlook, October 2016
Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

Keywords:
WEO; economy; emerging market; inflation expectation; commodity exporter; commodity market development; advanced economy; U.S. dollar; inflation goal; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Imports; Migration; Commodity prices; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; trade growth; trade cost; monetary policy; federal funds rate; trade slowdown; Caribbean; South America; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper aims to provide European Union (EU), while recognizing that the choice of whether to remain in the EU is for U.K. voters to make and that their decisions will reflect both economic and noneconomic factors. The question of EU membership is both a political and an economic issue, and the referendum has sparked a wide-ranging debate on the United Kingdom’s role in the EU. Given the range of plausible alternative arrangements with the EU, the number of channels by which countries could be affected and the range of possible effects on the United Kingdom and other economies are broad.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; EU membership; UK economy; single market; EU country; EU migrant; EU budget; UK-EU trade; EU regulation; EU economy; EU directive; EU immigrant; Exports; Migration; Tariffs; Income; Foreign direct investment; Global; Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2012
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Technology is generating a global convergence. A "big bang" of information—and education as well—is improving human lives. And with global interconnectivity growing by leaps and bounds, we are all witness to a rapid spread of information and ideas. But, as we have seen from the prolonged global financial crisis, our interconnectedness carries grave risks as well as benefits. This issue of F&D looks at different aspects of interconnectedness, globally and in Asia. • Brookings VP Kemal Devis presents the three fundamental trends in the global economy affecting the balance between east and west in "World Economy: Convergence, Interdependence, and Divergence." • In "Financial Regionalism," Akihiro Kawai and Domenico Lombardi tell us how regional arrangements are helping global financial stability. • In "Migration Meets Slow Growth," Migration Policy Institute president Demetrios Papademetriou examines how the global movement of workers will change as the economic crisis continues in advanced economies. • "Caught in the Web" explains new ways of looking at financial interconnections in a globalized world. • IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde provides her take on the benefits of integration and the risks of fragmentation in "Straight Talk." Also in this issue, we take a closer look at interconnectedness across Asia as we explore how trade across the region is affected by China's falling trade surplus, how India and China might learn from each others' success, and what Myanmar's reintegration into the global economy means for its people. F&D's People in Economics series profiles Justin Yifu Lin, first developing country World Bank economist, and the Back to Basics series explains the origins and evolution of money.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; China; financial institution; price; IMF study; IMF staff assessment; globalized economy; shrinking world; IMF staff; Migration; Financial sector stability; Fiscal rules; Exports; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2007
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
IMF research summary on how globalization affects developing countries (by Prachi Mishra and Petia Topalova); country study on Croatia (by Athanasios Vamvakidis); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during June 2007-January 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 54, Issue No. 3 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and listing of recent external publications by IMF staff members.
Keywords:
IRB; pricing growth-Indexed bond; Aid-Receiving Countries; Croatia; remittance; exchange rate fluctuation; emerging markets review; resource Economics; forthcoming publication; monetary policy implementation; Remittances; Migration; Wages; Trade liberalization; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Middle East; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
The external imbalances that accompanied Latvia’s integration into the global economy have generated mixed effects. Stabilizing net foreign liabilities will require an improvement in the goods and services balance. Outward migration from Latvia has raised concerns about social and economic stresses that could intensify in the near future if labor flow increases. Several steps have to be taken to mitigate any adverse consequences of outward migration. The purpose of this paper is to examine macroeconomic and prudential aspects of the rapid growth of lending in Latvia.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Latvia; bank; loan; GDP; GDP growth; current account deficit; labor force; labor productivity; capital-labor ratio; Migration; Current account deficits; Loans; Exports; Bank credit; Global; Eastern Europe; Middle East; East Asia; South Asia; Europe; Africa