Social Science > Emigration and Immigration
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.
Abstract
En un contexto en que la economía mundial está recobrando cierto ímpetu, las economías de América Latina y el Caribe están recuperándose de una recesión a escala regional en 2016. Esta mejora gradual puede interpretarse como una historia de dos ajustes, uno externo y otro fiscal, que están ocurriendo como respuesta a shocks previos. Pero los vientos en contra derivados de shocks de los términos de intercambio y de factores específicos de los países están amainando, y eso está desbrozando el camino para un crecimiento del PIB real de aproximadamente 1 por ciento en 2017. Se prevé que la actividad regional cobre más impulso en 2018, pero a un ritmo más lento de lo que se había previsto, en tanto que se proyecta que el crecimiento a mediano plazo permanezca en un nivel moderado de alrededor de 2,6 por ciento. Las perspectivas responden a cambios fundamentales en el panorama económico y de políticas a escala mundial, en el que el crecimiento lento, la baja productividad y una fuerte desigualdad del ingreso están generando presiones a favor de la adopción de políticas aislacionistas en algunas economías avanzadas. Sin embargo, los fundamentos y los resultados económicos internos seguirán cumpliendo un papel preponderante a la hora de determinar el crecimiento en muchas economías. Al mismo tiempo, los riesgos para el crecimiento regional se han ampliado, en un entorno de mayor incertidumbre en términos de las políticas a nivel mundial. En este contexto externo lleno de desafíos, se requiere apuntalar los ajustes fiscales y externos para preservar y reponer los márgenes de maniobra. La definición de una ruta hacia un crecimiento mayor, sostenible y más equitativo requerirá también de reformas estructurales más vigorosas. Concretamente, cerrar las brechas de infraestructura; mejorar el clima de negocios, la gestión de gobierno y los resultados de educación, y promover la participación de la mujer en la fuerza laboral son medidas necesarias para estimular el crecimiento a mediano plazo y promover la convergencia del ingreso. En otros capítulos de este informe se examinan el ajuste externo en curso ante las variaciones de los términos de intercambio, los factores que determinan los flujos de capital a la región, el papel que desempeña la base inversora y el impacto macroeconómico de la migración y las remesas.
Abstract
With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape—where slow growth, low productivity, and high income inequality are creating pressure for a shift toward inward- looking policies in some advanced economies. Domestic fundamentals and developments, however, will continue to play a significant role in determining growth for the region. At the same time, risks to the outlook have widened in a setting of higher global uncertainty. In this challenging external context, countries should aim for completing fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers. Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require strengthening structural reforms. Specifically, closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes, and encouraging female labor participation are necessary to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. Chapters in this report examine the ongoing external adjustment to terms-of-trade shifts, drivers of capital flows to the region, the role of the investor base, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.
Abstract
Selon l'édition 2016 des Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, la croissance mondiale devrait ralentir à 3,1 % en 2016 avant de remonter à 3,4 % en 2017. Ces prévisions, revues à la baisse de 0,1 point de pourcentage pour 2016 et 2017 par rapport à l'édition d'avril, reflètent des perspectives plus moroses pour les pays avancés à la suite du vote, en juin dernier, en faveur de la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l'Union européenne (Brexit), et en raison d'une croissance inférieure aux attentes aux États-Unis. Cette évolution exerce une pression à la baisse sur les taux d'intérêts mondiaux car la politique monétaire devrait rester accommodante sur une plus longue durée. En dépit d'une réaction des marchés plutôt rassurante à l'annonce du Brexit, l'impact final est très imprévisible car la forme que prendront les dispositions institutionnelles et commerciales entre le Royaume-Uni et l'Union européenne est incertaine. L'attitude des marchés financiers par rapport aux pays émergents s'est améliorée grâce aux baisses de taux d'intérêt attendues dans les pays avancés, à la diminution des inquiétudes suscitées par les perspectives à court terme de la Chine, qui a désormais pris des mesures favorables à la croissance, ainsi qu'à une certaine stabilisation des prix des produits de base. Mais les perspectives varient considérablement entre les pays et les régions : les pays émergents d'Asie, en particulier l'Inde, présentent une croissance robuste, tandis que les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne connaissent un net ralentissement. Dans les pays avancés, la morosité des perspectives, soumises à une incertitude considérable et à des risques à la baisse, pourrait alimenter encore la grogne politique et faire gagner du terrain aux mouvements anti-intégrationnistes. Plusieurs pays émergents ou en développement doivent encore relever des défis immenses pour s'ajuster à la baisse des prix des produits de base. Au vu de ces perspectives préoccupantes, il est plus urgent que jamais d'adopter largement des politiques publiques propices à la croissance et de gérer les vulnérabilités.
Abstract
According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.