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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Emigration, Business Dynamics, and Firm Heterogeneity in North Macedonia
Ninghui Li
and
Thomas Pihl Gade
High emigration rates are a challenge in the Western Balkans. High emigration rates might lead to inadequate skilled labor and affect firm creation, capital formation, and economic convergence. The 2021 North Macedonia census reveals that more than 12.4% of North Macedonians live abroad. To assess the consequences, we estimate the impact of emigration on the number of firms and capital formation. Business dynamics can affect emigration reversely. To alleviate the endogeneity bias, we use a shift-share instrument with the historical diaspora networks and destination countries’ GDP growth rate as a source of exogenous variations. Our results show that (1) In the short run, a 1 percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 2.91% decrease in the number of firms in the area of origin; (2) The long-run effects of emigration on the number of firms are less negative than the short-run impacts; (3) Emigration mainly reduces the number of micro and small firms; (4) Emigration affects the number of firms and capital formation more in the industrial sector than the other sectors, through the skilled labor shortage channel. This paper contributes to the literature on emigration and provides implications and policy considerations for developing countries, where high emigration rates are prevalent.
Keywords:
Emigration; Labor market; Firm dynamics; Capital formation; North Macedonia; Panel data.; emigration rate; business dynamics; firm Heterogeneity; emigration challenge; emigration effect; Migration; Unemployment rate; Industrial sector; Labor markets; Labor shortages; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of International Migration on Inclusive Growth: A Review
Zsoka Koczan
,
Magali Pinat
, and
Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov
International migration is an important channel of material improvement for individuals and their offspring. The movement of people across country borders, especially from less developed to richer countries, has a substantial impact in several dimensions. First, it affects the migrants themselves by allowing them to achieve higher income as a result of their higher productivity in the destination country. It also increases the expected income for their offspring. Second, it affects the destination country through the impact on labor markets, productivity, innovation, demographic structure, fiscal balance, and criminality. Third, it can have a significant impact on the countries of origin. It may lead to loss of human capital, but it also creates a flow of remittances and increases international connections in the form of trade, FDI, and technological transfers. This paper surveys our understanding of how migration affects growth and inequality through the impact on migrants themselves as well as on the destination and origin countries.
Keywords:
International Migration; Inequality; Economic growth; complementarity effect; consequences of migration; E. country case; origin country; wage effect; Migration; Remittances; Labor markets; Wages; Income; Global; Eastern Europe; costs of emigration; impact of migration; wage effect of migration
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quantum Computing and the Financial System: Spooky Action at a Distance?
Mr. Michael Gorbanyov
,
Majid Malaika
, and
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
The era of quantum computing is about to begin, with profound implications for the global economy and the financial system. Rapid development of quantum computing brings both benefits and risks. Quantum computers can revolutionize industries and fields that require significant computing power, including modeling financial markets, designing new effective medicines and vaccines, and empowering artificial intelligence, as well as creating a new and secure way of communication (quantum Internet). But they would also crack many of the current encryption algorithms and threaten financial stability by compromising the security of mobile banking, e-commerce, fintech, digital currencies, and Internet information exchange. While the work on quantum-safe encryption is still in progress, financial institutions should take steps now to prepare for the cryptographic transition, by assessing future and retroactive risks from quantum computers, taking an inventory of their cryptographic algorithms (especially public keys), and building cryptographic agility to improve the overall cybersecurity resilience.
Keywords:
quantum computing; quantum-safe encryption; cybersecurity; fintech.; fintech; functioning quantum computer; computing technology; quantum machine; encryption standard; hardware capability; cloud service; Computer science; Migration; Financial sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Labor Mobility in Spain
Lucy Qian Liu
This paper studies the main factors that explain the low regional mobility in Spain, with a view to identifying policy options at the regional and central level to promote labor mobility. The empirical analysis finds that house prices, labor market conditions, and the pervasiveness of labor market duality at the regional level are the main determinants for Spain’s regional mobility, while labor market institutions and policies play an important role at the national level. Policies that facilitate wage setting flexibility and reduce labor market duality could help enhance the functioning of the labor market, thereby promoting labor mobility. There may be also room for policies to incentivize people to move and provide support through targeted active labor market policies.
Keywords:
Labor mobility; interregional migration; regional labor market; gravity; labor market variable; migration flow; labor market duality; protection benefit; labor market condition; duality issue; labor market indicator; migration outflow; Labor markets; Migration; Labor force; Unemployment rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
China’s Labor Market in the “New Normal”
Mr. Waikei R Lam
,
Xiaoguang Liu
, and
Mr. Alfred Schipke
As China implements reforms under the “new normal,” maintaining stability in the labor market is a priority. The country’s demography and labor dynamics are changing, after benefitting in past decades from ample cheap labor. So far, the labor market appears to be resilient, even as growth slows, driven in part by expansion of the services sector. Migrant flows and possible labor hoarding in overcapacity sectors may also help explain this. Yet, while the latter two factors help serve as shock absorbers— contributing to labor market stability in the short term—if they persist, they may delay the needed adjustment process, contributing to an inefficient allocation of resources and curtailing productivity gains. This paper quantifies to what extent structural trends and the reform pace affect employment growth under the new normal. Delays in reform implementation would weaken growth prospects in the medium term, running the risk that job creation will fall below policy targets, leading to labor market pressures in the future. In contrast, successful transition might require faster reforms, including in the overcapacity and state-owned enterprise sectors, supported by well targeted social safety nets.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; labor market condition; China; Labor Markets; Unemployment; Migration; Mobility; growth rate; productivity gain; labor market resilience; labor market mobility; per capita income; Employment; Services sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Afford to Grow Old?
Mr. Hunter K Monroe
The demographic transition in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) now underway is rapid compared with international experience, and emigration is playing a particularly large role. This paper describes and quantifies several factors which could magnify the challenge of pension reform. First, for some ECCU countries, continued emigration at historical rates would considerably advance the projected date at which pension scheme assets are depleted. Second, there is a significant risk that assets will underperform, given the large exposures to the highly-leveraged public sector and to a lesser extent the record with private sector investments. Third, portfolio diversification away from the public sector could be complicated by age-related pressure for greater central government health spending.
Keywords:
WP; ECCU emigration rate; rate; ECCU member; OECD census data; ECCU pension reform; Pension systems; migration; ECCU pension schemes; Pensions; Pension spending; Public sector; Health care spending; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Increases in core inflation owing to the VAT hike were smaller than expected, initially constituting a puzzle and leading to speculation about delayed increases or competitive pressures. Given Germany’s large size and openness, spillover interactions appear to have increased over time. In the midst of a strong recovery, Germany is facing shortages of labor, the emigration of high-skilled labor, and a reduction in immigration. Germany’s traditionally insider-dominated corporate governance system has undergone substantial reforms, leading to a pronounced strengthening of control by outsiders.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; price; EU member states; durable goods; rate; life-cycle earnings dynamics; immigration restriction; VAT hike; emigration survey; Value-added tax; Inflation; Migration; Corporate governance; Skilled labor; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines inflation dynamics over the past five years for Lithuania. A decomposition of inflation into its components provides clues to its main causes. It shows that energy price increases and convergence to European Union (EU)-wide price levels have been important factors driving inflation, but domestic demand pressures—and wage growth, in particular—have also contributed to inflation. The types of possible efficiency gains are illustrated in the context of health care and social assistance. The paper also examines migration and its long-term fiscal implications.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; labor market; inflation development; demand pressure; decomposition of inflation; migration rate; emigration incentive; Inflation; Migration; Informal economy; Health care; Eastern Europe; Baltics
Cover Migration and Remittances in Moldova
Migration and Remittances in Moldova
Mr. Milan M Cuc
,
Mr. Erik J. Lundback
, and
Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

Labor migration and remittances, which have increasingly become a part of the global landscape, have profound economic and social consequences. Moldova, a small low-income country where an estimated one-third of the economically active population has been working abroad, is an interesting illustration of this trend. Drawing on household survey data, this Special Issues paper explains why Moldovan workers go abroad and how their remittances are used. With this background, it provides insights into policy challenges of coping with, and maximizing benefits from, international labor mobility and the large inflows of remittances.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; IMF staff estimate; remittance; migrant; Moldovan migrant; social indicator; labor migration literature; workers' remittance; Migration; Remittances; Outward remittances; Business environment; Western Europe; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Global; emigration trend; labor migration; remittance flow
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of workers’ remittances on Moldova. The paper focuses on Moldova’s labor emigration since the late-1990s using survey data designed to shed light on the economic and social consequences of migration. The survey results are broadly consistent both with the findings from balance-of-payments data and with the stylized facts in the labor migration literature. The paper also examines various indicators to assess the appropriateness of the current exchange rate level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; enterprise; government; migrant; privatization program; Moldovan migrant; enterprise privatization; remittances inflow; workers' remittance; Migration; Corporate income tax; Remittances; Privatization; Budget planning and preparation; Western Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global