Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 586 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Real sector x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Departmental Papers
Long-Term Spending Pressures in Europe
Stephanie Eble
,
Alexander Pitt
,
Irina Bunda
,
Oyun Erdene Adilbish
,
Nina Budina
,
Gee Hee Hong
,
Moheb T Malak
,
Sabiha Mohona
,
Alla Myrvoda
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries face high, rising, and long-lasting spending pressures, calling for a renewed focus on fiscal policy and comprehensive structural reforms to prepare their economies for the future. On top of existing fiscal consolidation needs, spending pressures in five key areas are imminent and growing in Europe: pensions and healthcare/long-term care driven by population aging; climate transition; increased defense spending; and higher borrowing costs. Some pressures are immediate, others will build up over time. Projections indicate that additional expenditures could reach 5¾ percent of GDP annually by 2050 in Advanced Europe and 8 percent in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Addressing these challenges will require extensive efforts, including enhancing institutional capacity and implementing deep structural reforms to manage spending, ensure adequate revenue, and meet environmental, social, and security objectives. Policymakers must also consider the distributional impacts of reforms, particularly on vulnerable households. A broad reform agenda tailored to country circumstances is essential, with urgent actions needed in many countries to ensure the sustainability of pension systems and to combat climate change through fiscal instruments like carbon pricing. Increased revenue mobilization, particularly in CESEE, and the reduction of inefficient spending are critical for creating fiscal space for priority expenditures. Strengthening the EU's fiscal capacity to provide common public goods such as climate, defense, energy security, and R&D and implementing structural reforms to enhance growth potential are also vital. However, raising awareness of these issues and implementing the necessary reforms will be challenging. A well-designed fiscal framework that incorporates long-term spending pressures, supported by comprehensive analysis and data, is crucial for informing public debate and guiding national decision-making to ensure that spending pressures are adequately addressed. Ultimately, inaction is not an option, as it risks fiscal sustainability and the fulfillment of priority spending needs.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; structural reforms; climate; defense; demographics; aging; health; public debt; fiscal institutions; spending pressure; member states; EU climate goal; increase EU resilience; emissions trading system; EU financing; EU rule; carbon border adjustment mechanism; EU budget; EU country; climate goal; spending needs; Pension spending; Defense spending; Pensions; Europe; priority spending needs; data from European Union; inefficient spending; long-term spending pressure
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Transforming the Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea
Soo Jung Chang
,
Hamin Lee
,
Sumin Lee
,
Samil Oh
,
Zexi Sun
, and
Xin Cindy Xu
This paper examines the economic impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Korea. Korea is among the global frontrunners in AI adoption, with higher adoption rates among larger, younger, and technologically advanced firms. AI holds the promise for boosting productivity and output, though the effects are more pronounced among larger and mature Korean firms. About half of jobs are exposed to AI, with higher exposures among female, younger, more educated, and higher income workers. Korea’s strong innovation and digital infrastructure highlights its AI readiness, while enhancing labor market flexibility and social safety nets are essential to fully harness AI’s potential.
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; AI; labor market; productivity; growth; E. AI preparedness; profitability regression; preparedness index; AI adoption; B. AI adoption; Aging; Labor market policy; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Taking Stock of Infrastructure in Malta
Alexander Pitt
Malta’s rapid growth over the past two decades has gone hand in hand with a significant expansion of the population. This has created bottlenecks in infrastructure, which will need to be addressed. While capacity in energy and water supply is currently adequate, investments in wastewater treatment and solid waste disposal are needed, as well as measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In transport, need for action to ease congestion is urgent, while the costs for a sustainable solution are high and implementation would take time.
Keywords:
Malta; infrastructure; energy; water supply; desalination; congestion; solid waste disposal; Malta's rapid growth; copyright page; RO plants; EU standard; Water resources; Population growth; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK
Rodrigo Barrela
,
Pragyan Deb
,
Gloria Li
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Faced with fiscal pressures and labor shortages from ageing populations, Advanced Economies need to ease obstacles to longer working lives. In this paper, we discuss recent developments in employment and activity of workers aged 55 and above in Spain and the UK—two countries that differ widely on historical and recent employment rate patterns as well as institutional settings. We then explore themes related to their labor market decisions, including flows into and out of the labor force, health, working arrangements, and unemployment benefits systems. The differences and commonalities between the two countries highlight the diversity of obstacles to longer working lives and the need for policies to act upon all of them. Policy priorities include addressing worsening health, improving accessibility for older workers with physical limitations, providing incentives to return to employment for the long-term unemployed, and greater flexibility in hours and working arrangments for those who have family caring duties or want to gradually transition out of work.
Keywords:
Ageing; Older Workers; Retirement; Labor Force Participation; policy priority; labor market decision; IMF working paper 2025/30; older worker; job search; early retirement; Aging; Labor markets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
Bruno R. Delalibera
,
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira
, and
Rafael Machado Parente
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector. As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems. We develop a general equilibrium life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, three sectors - private formal, private informal and public - and endogenous retirement. We quantitatively assess the long-run effects of reforms being discussed and implemented around the world. Among them, we study the unification of pension systems and increasing the minimum retirement age. We calibrate our model to Brazil, where several of the retirement conditions resemble those of other countries. We find that these reforms lower the likelihood of individuals to apply to a public job and increase the profile of savings over the life cycle. In the long run, these reforms lead to higher output and capital, reduced informality, and average welfare gains. They also drastically reduce the social security deficit.
Keywords:
Social security reform; Public employment; Public deficit; Informality; reform experiment; retirement condition; social security deficit; retirement decision; Retirement; Aging; Public sector; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market downturn, both locally and in Mainland China. The territory’s integration with Mainland China, including in the context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative, has significantly increased in recent years, but rising regional competition has put pressure on some of its traditional growth engines, prompting the authorities to pursue new sources of growth, including from innovative, technology-driven sectors.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malta: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
gender income gap; labor market exposure; AI Preparedness; AI technology; use of artificial intelligence; Gender inequality; Women; Income inequality; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
D. pension inequity; convergence success; firm investment trend; B. pension projection; E. pension funds' role; pension benefit; Pension spending; Pensions; Productivity; Aging; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Polish economy is recovering, driven by a rebound in domestic demand. Private consumption growth is being driven by rising nominal and real wages, and lower inflation; still, inflation remains well above target against a tight labor market. The current account surplus has diminished in 2024 as imports increased, while exports are contained by the subdued growth in the Euro Area. Fiscal pressures remain high, in part due to elevated defense spending.
Keywords:
currency of Poland; IMF staff calculation; consultation cycle; holdings of SDR; Policy recommendation; Inflation; Credit; Labor markets; Aging; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe