Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Econometric analysis x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Boileau Loko
,
Nelie Nembot
, and
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.
Keywords:
Private Savings; Sub-Saharan Africa; COVID-19; Economic Growth; savings determinants in SSA; pandemic impact; preventive measure; SSA economy; robustness check; Income; Estimation techniques; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
Robert C. M. Beyer
,
Yingyao Hu
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Keywords:
Nighttime lights; economic measurement; quarterly GDP; national accounts; COVID-19.; GDP growth; Summary statistics; light growth; growth measure; GDP measure; COVID-19; GDP measurement; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reexamining the National Savings-Investment Nexus Across Time and Countries
Mr. Antonio David
,
Carlos Goncalves
, and
Alejandro M. Werner
Domestic savings and investment are positively correlated across countries and through time, as Feldstein-Horioka (FH) unveiled 40 years ago. We argue that an interpretation of this correlation based on market failures is more consistent with data patterns than alternative hypotheses. Moreover, resorting to instrumental variables techniques, we conclude that the relationship is causal: an exogenous rise in savings increases investment. This result holds in the full sample of countries and for emerging and developing economies, but there is evidence that the positive association in advanced economies is due to endogeneity bias. The core of our identification strategy relies on the idea that population age structure influences savings, but not total investment directly. Specifically, we use the share of adults in the [35-49] years of age bracket as an instrument for savings. Our estimates pass weak-instruments robust inference.
Keywords:
WP; saving; investment; investment rate; savings-investment correlation; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Investment; Savings; Causality; savings rate; labor-saving technology; saving variable; Domestic savings; Capital account; Estimation techniques; Income; Global; population share affect investment
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Matters for Financial Development and Stability?
Raja Almarzoqi
,
Samy Ben Naceur
, and
Akshay Kotak
This study aims to identify policies that influence the development of financial institutions as measured across three dimensions: depth, efficiency, and stability. Applying the concept of the financial possibility frontier, developed by Beck & Feyen (2013) and formalized by Barajas et al (2013a), we determine key policy variables affecting the gap between actual levels of development and benchmarks predicted by structural variables. Our dynamic panel estimation shows that inflation, trade openness, institutional quality, and banking crises significantly affect financial development. Our analysis also helps identify potential complementarities and trade-offs for policy makers, based on the effect of the policy variables across the different dimensions of financial development.
Keywords:
WP; d GMM; s GMM; banking sector; standard deviation; real GDP; financial development; financial stability; financial possibility frontier; difference GMM estimator; system GMM estimator; system GMM estimation; Estimation techniques; Financial sector development; Banking crises; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Valuation Effects of Geographic Diversification: Evidence From U.S. Banks
Mr. Luc Laeven
,
Mr. Martin R. Goetz
, and
Mr. Ross Levine
This paper assesses the impact of the geographic diversification of bank holding company (BHC) assets across the United States on their market valuations. Using two novel identification strategies based on the dynamic process of interstate bank deregulation, we find that exogenous increases in geographic diversity reduce BHC valuations. These findings are consistent with the view that geographic diversity makes it more difficult for shareholders and creditors to monitor firm executives, allowing corporate insiders to extract larger private benefits from firms.
Keywords:
WP; BHC diversity; bank deregulation; BHC valuation; BHC assets; gravity-deregulation model; Geographic Corporate diversification; Agency problems; Economies of scope; Corporate insiders; Corporate valuation; BHC asset diversification; BHC diversification increase; Estimation techniques; Personal income; Asset valuation; Gravity models; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
The Savings Working Group in New Zealand presented recommendations in February 2011, and suggested raising national saving by 2–3 percent of GDP. The increase in net public saving in the country explains part of the reason for lower net private saving in New Zealand. Net public saving of the country is about 3 percent of GDP above the average of advanced countries for the past 15 years. Financial liberalization also appears to have played a role in saving behavior.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Australia; saving; GDP; national saving; saving rate; commodity price; public saving; business cycle; Private savings; Spillovers; Terms of trade; Vector autoregression; Commodity prices; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Spending, Legislature Size, and the Executive Veto
Reza Baqir
Recent work on the political economy of fiscal policy has asked how budgetary institutions affect fiscal outcomes. But what determines the budgetary institutions? In this paper I consider one such institution: the executive veto. A simple theoretical framework predicts that jurisdictions with more political actors spending from a common pool of tax resources will choose to empower their executives. Using an econometric framework to identify the exogenous variation in the number of districts, I present evidence from a cross-section of local governments in the United States that jurisdictions with more electoral districts are likely to have executives with veto powers.
Keywords:
WP; government spending; city manager; political institutions; executive veto; council size; veto authority; mayor-council city; state indicator; city government; Personal income; Budget planning and preparation; Probit models
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Trade Agreements Versus Broad Liberalization: Which Path Leads to Faster Growth? Time-Series Evidence
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
Should a closed economy open its trade to all countries or limit itself to participation in regional trade agreements (RTAs)? Based on time-series evidence for a data set for 1950-92, this paper estimates and compares the growth performance of countries that liberalized broadly and those that joined an RTA. The comparisons show that economies grew faster after broad liberalization, both in the short and long run, but slower after participation in an RTA. Economies also had higher investment shares after broad liberalization, but lower ones after joining an RTA. The policy implications support broad liberalization.
Keywords:
WP; trade share; RTA dummy; Years before; open economy; Economic Growth of Open Economies; RTAs lead; investment share; liberalization case; Trade policy; Trade liberalization; Population growth; Trade barriers; Logit models; Global