Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 52 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Transforming the Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea
Soo Jung Chang
,
Hamin Lee
,
Sumin Lee
,
Samil Oh
,
Zexi Sun
, and
Xin Cindy Xu
This paper examines the economic impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Korea. Korea is among the global frontrunners in AI adoption, with higher adoption rates among larger, younger, and technologically advanced firms. AI holds the promise for boosting productivity and output, though the effects are more pronounced among larger and mature Korean firms. About half of jobs are exposed to AI, with higher exposures among female, younger, more educated, and higher income workers. Korea’s strong innovation and digital infrastructure highlights its AI readiness, while enhancing labor market flexibility and social safety nets are essential to fully harness AI’s potential.
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; AI; labor market; productivity; growth; E. AI preparedness; profitability regression; preparedness index; AI adoption; B. AI adoption; Aging; Labor market policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
D. pension inequity; convergence success; firm investment trend; B. pension projection; E. pension funds' role; pension benefit; Pension spending; Pensions; Productivity; Aging; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on potential growth and demographic dividend in Philippines. Output and employment in the Philippines were severely impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. While the Philippines recovered strongly after the pandemic, there is some evidence of scarring in output, and labor productivity remains below pre-pandemic trends. A comparison between the Philippines and peer countries along structural areas key to supporting higher growth can inform reform efforts to support higher growth. Strengthening anti-corruption efforts, while enhancing the legal system, regulatory quality, and improving the rule of law would support business certainty. At a structural level, the Philippines is on the cusp of a demographic transition but must close important structural gaps to take advantage of this potential dividend and boost growth. Under current policy settings, potential growth projections are estimated to be between 6.0–6.3 percent in the medium term. An upside scenario, which assumes ambitious and well-sequenced structural reforms, shows that growth could reach 7.0–7.5 percent over a longer time horizon.
Keywords:
supply and demand inflation decomposition; supply and demand food inflation decomposition; inflation volatility; inflation expectation; services inflation decomposition; supply and demand goods inflation decomposition; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Labor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovak Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on drivers and impacts of inflation in Slovakia. High and volatile inflation in Slovakia in recent years seems to be mainly driven by volatile food prices amplified by the larger consumer price index weight of food items. Other drivers include the large impact of imported inflation, elevated profit margins of domestic firms, and higher wage growth. High inflation could erode external competitiveness through higher unit labor costs, but there is no clear evidence of this so far. Domestically, high inflation has had uneven impacts across households and firms. Firms with the largest cost increases experienced a deterioration in their financial situation, and certain categories of households, including those with low-income levels and the elderly, are particularly vulnerable to the rising cost of living. The recent fall in inflation is projected to continue, but strong unit labor cost growth or an increase in profit margins could keep inflation elevated and undermine competitiveness.
Keywords:
price change; unit labor cost; inflation in Slovakia; B. income convergence; D. policy implication; Inflation; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Aging; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
This paper addresses the puzzling decline of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) levels in rapidly growing economies, such as Singapore, despite advancements in technology and high GDP per capita growth. The paper proposes that TFP growth is not negative; instead, standard growth decompositions have underestimated TFP growth by overestimating the contribution of capital, failing to account for the substantial part of capital income directed to urban land rents. This leads to an overestimation of changes in capital stock's contribution to growth and thereby an underestimation of TFP growth. A revised decomposition suggests that TFP growth in economies with high land rents and rapid capital stock growth, such as Singapore, has been considerably underestimated: TFP levels have not declined but increased rapidly.
Keywords:
Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; Capital Stock; Land Rents; Growth Decomposition; Urban Economics; Population Density; Diminishing Returns to Scale; Technological Progress; Singapore; TFP level; re-estimating TFP; land rent; decline of total factor productivity; Capital income; Stocks; Land prices; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Low for (Very) Long? A Long-Run Perspective on r* across Advanced Economies
Josef Platzer
,
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
, and
Robin Tietz
We provide a long-run perspective on neutral interest rates with new estimates for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach. Our estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies. We find that, while cross-country heterogeneity was significant in the past, since the 1980s the decline has been common to many countries. Traditional determinants such as population aging and productivity growth are strongly correlated with the changes in neutral rates, while others like the relative price of capital and inequality exhibit weak relationships with r*. We also find that neutral rates co-vary negatively with public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Keywords:
neutral rate; old-age dependency ratio; time series; neutral interest rates; coefficient estimate; cited estimation approach; estimation procedure; Real interest rates; Capital account; Aging; Output gap; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Constraints, Productivity, and Investment: Evidence from Lithuania
Karim Foda
,
Ms. Yu Shi
, and
Maryam Vaziri
This paper studies the relation between firms' access to finance, labor productivity and investment using Lithuanian firm-level data from 2000–2018. To do so, we construct a measure of financial constraints. We estimate that, given firm characteristics, removing these constraints can improve average productivity and investment of firms in Lithuania by 0.51 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. Our results further suggest that policies targeting firm age and size together will be more effective in mitigating the impact of financial constraints as the relationship between firm age and size with financial constraints exhibits non-linearities.
Keywords:
Financial Constraints; Productivity; Investment; SMEs; Transition Economies; financing constraint; firm age; evidence from Lithuania; firm's age distribution; balance sheet information; Labor productivity; Aging; Financial statements; Global