Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Financial sector policy and analysis x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
Patrick A. Imam
and
Christian Schmieder
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
Keywords:
Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability; IMF working paper No. 24/118; tail risk; risk preference; stability risk; solvency profile; bank assets; Commercial banks; Bank soundness; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes
Mr. Pragyan Deb
,
Davide Furceri
,
Daniel Jimenez
,
Siddharth Kothari
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Nour Tawk
This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations; containment measures.; vaccine rollout; vaccine deployment; vaccine acceptance; vaccine procurement; vaccination rollout; Infrastructure; Spillovers; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritius: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Mauritius; GDP; saving; saving rate; private saving; statistics Mauritius; export basket; constructed FCIs; Private savings; Income; Aging; Exports; Financial conditions index; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Bulgarian economy is performing well. Growth has been on an upward trend and is estimated to reach 3.8 percent in 2017 and 2018, driven by strong exports, easier financial conditions, and growing confidence. The current account remained in surplus in 2017, despite rapid wage growth. The economy shows signs of a closing output gap. Headline inflation turned positive in 2017 and inflationary pressure is rising. Fiscal outcomes have been stronger than budgeted in recent years, reflecting mainly revenue overperformance and under-execution of capital spending. The main challenge is to translate this recent recovery into sustained and inclusive growth and convergence with other European Union countries.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bulgaria; government; GDP; finances; public goods; EU average; Bulgarian authorities; BNB legislation; per capita income; Wages; Income; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper outlines that the banking sector remains healthy, backed by high capital, liquidity, provisioning and profitability ratios. Sector-wide nonperforming loans (NPLs) have increased slightly (to 2 percent in 2017:Q1), due largely to stresses in the Oil and Gas (O&G) services sector. Banks have responded by increasing provisions (using forward-looking measures of impairment) and restructuring their loans. Overall, the banking sector is well-positioned to withstand shocks. Capital and liquidity positions are sufficiently strong and well above regulatory requirements. Capital and liquidity positions of the local banking groups remain strong. Liquidity coverage ratios (LCR) of all three major banks remained high and rose in 2016:Q4, remaining well above the regulatory limits. The turnaround in bank’s profitability (especially the strong performance in 2017:Q1) is attributed to two factors: an acceleration in credit growth and increases in fee income from wealth management services. Local banks have been a key factor behind the wealth management sector’s growth and its main beneficiary.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Singapore; private sector; bank; private saving; saving rate; wealth management; property market stability; housing affordability; Private savings; Income; Capital flows; Aging; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Greece: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes insolvency and enforcement issues in Greece. The Greek insolvency and creditor rights framework has improved since the onset of the crisis as a result of successive reforms. Nonetheless, it remains underutilized, fragmented, and distortive, and is not supported by an adequate institutional setting. This is because many of the reforms undertaken in recent years were not part of a coordinated and comprehensive nonperforming loan resolution strategy, but were instead piecemeal and taken without proper stakeholder consultation and impact analysis. Also, the frequent and uncoordinated reforms have undermined legal predictability and certainty. This situation of distress, if left unaddressed, affects enterprises, households and financial and public creditors by preventing investment, credit, and consumption from recovering.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension; debt; tax; tax debt; NICs; pension benefit; business insolvency regime; pension provision; SSC debt; targeted pension; Pension spending; Pensions; Tax arrears management; Solvency; Tax administration core functions; Europe; Southern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights Bulgaria’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) sector and to assess its performance in a regional perspective. A detailed and rich firm-level dataset of state-owned and private firms was compiled for this note to compare key performance indicators of SOEs to private firms in the same sector and to similar firms in Croatia and Romania for a regional comparison. In some network industries, such as energy, SOEs are heavily loss-making. Large amounts of debt have been piled up notably in the energy and transport sectors which, to the extent that it is classified outside the general government accounts, can pose significant risk to public finances in the form of contingent liabilities if the SOEs run into financial difficulties. SOE profitability and resource allocation efficiency largely lag private firms in the same sectors, even when isolating SOEs engaged in competitive market activities and hence classified outside of general government. Coupled with comparably poor output quality, these challenges have the potential to impair competitiveness and productivity across the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bond yield; firm; Bulgaria; ECB policy rate; Bulgaria yield regression; currency bond yield; interbank market rate; insolvency process; ECB policy action; interest rate; Solvency; Aging; Public enterprises; Bond yields; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines social spending reform and fiscal savings in Slovenia. Rising expenditure has been at the root of Slovenia’s fiscal deterioration since the onset of the crisis. The paper explores reform options to reduce Slovenia’s social spending over the medium and long term. It discusses key features of the pension system, and analyzes the evolution of pension spending in the absence of reforms. The paper also examines the health and education spending and provides a framework to assess their efficiency relative to other countries.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; insolvency; Slovenia; GDP; business regulation; insolvency proceeding; insolvency legislation; restructuring proceeding; debt ratio; insolvency regime; GDP impact; insolvency restructuring proceeding; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Solvency; Retirement; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Spain: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes household savings ratio in Spain. The household savings ratio has fallen to its lowest historical rate in 2012, as households cut back savings to support consumption in response to negative income shocks. Household savings fell across all households, but the declines were likely more material among lower income and highly indebted groups. Declining household income and savings slowed deleveraging and put household balance sheets under pressure. Looking ahead, households may need to restrain consumption further to free resources for repaying debt. Household savings rates will likely stay below historical levels for some time then slowly increase.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; insolvency; saving; Spain; household saving; AIReF; insolvency regime; financial market spillover; AIReF staffing; AIReF president; Solvency; Disposable income; Pension spending; Fiscal law; Personal income; Global; Europe; North America; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Israel: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper states that Israel’s growth performance is impressive, with real GDP growing at a faster pace than many other OECD countries. The secular Jewish population enjoys a high level of living standards, whereas most Arab and Haredi people are poor, with poverty incidence reaching 60 percent for both groups. Low employment in Arab and Haredi communities is mainly accounted for by the low employment rate of Arab women and Haredi men.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; central bank; inflation targeting; inflation; employment rate; graduation rate; OECD average; defense investment; Haredim men; bank publication; monetary policy; Employment rate; Financial sector stability; Global