Social Science > Demography

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Lisa L Kolovich
,
Monique Newiak
,
Diego B. P. Gomes
,
Jiajia Gu
,
Vivian Malta
, and
Jorge Mondragon
As governments design policy packages to address the main macroeconomic questions of our times, putting a gender lens on macroeconomics can amplify reform impact. In this note, IMF staff’s analysis has called for attention to strengthening legal rights, gendered aspects of fiscal policy, and enhancing women’s work–life choices, including through structural reforms. Capacity development to assist member countries in their reform efforts has grown and, so far, has centered on integrating gender into public financial management systems through gender budgeting.
Kohei Asao
,
Danila Smirnov
, and
TengTeng Xu
Japan’s fertility has declined in the past three decades. Raising Japan’s fertility rate is a key policy priority for the government. Using cross-country analysis and case studies, this paper finds that the most successful measure to support the fertility rate is the provision of childcare facilities, particularly for children aged 0-2. Offering stronger incentives for the use of paternity leave can alleviate the burden of childcare on mothers, supporting fertility. On the other hand, there is limited evidence that cash transfers are effective in supporting fertility, based on international experience.
Jaijai Gu
,
Lisa L Kolovich
,
Jorge Mondragon
,
Monique Newiak
, and
Michael Herrmann
Two broad contrasting demographic trends present challenges for economies globally: countries with aging populations, often advanced economies and increasingly emerging markets, anticipate a significant shrinking of the labor force, with implications for growth, economic stability, and public finances. Economies with rapidly growing populations, as is the case in many low-income and developing countries, will face a burgeoning young population entering the labor market in the next decades—a large potential to reap the demographic dividend if the right skills and economic and social conditions are in place. This note highlights how gender equality, in both cases, can serve as a stabilizing factor to rebalance demographic trends. As decisions regarding fertility, human capital investment, and labor force participation are interlinked, policies should aim at relaxing households’ time and resource constraints that condition these choices. This means that, in general, in advanced economies and emerging markets, policies should facilitate women’s work–life choices and boost female participation in the labor market, whereas policies in low-income and developing countries should focus on reforms that narrow gender gaps in opportunities and support human capital accumulation.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the main drivers of persistent gender gaps in leadership in Japan and identifies public policies that can play a role in closing these gaps. Despite its economic relevance, analysis on the drivers of women leaders and managers in Japan is limited. There are a few existing studies, such as Yamaguchi (2013), that use firm level or survey-based data to identify the key constraints to women’s career advancement. Women are also underrepresented in policy-making positions. The availability of public childcare facilities has improved, and is positively associated with the share of female managers. As witnessed in the case of Japan, increasing female labor force participation is not sufficient to ensure that women have good jobs and good careers. In order to foster the advancement of women into managerial and leadership positions, policy efforts need acceleration. Reforming current employment practices and policies are essential for improving women’s quality of jobs. This will also help increase productivity, wages and advance an equal society. First, further progress should be made on work-style reforms, such as encouraging the use of flexible working schedules and teleworking options.
Diva Astinova
,
Romain A Duval
,
Niels-Jakob H Hansen
,
Ben Park
,
Ippei Shibata
, and
Frederik G Toscani
Three years after the COVID-19 crisis, employment and total hours worked in Europe fully recovered, but average hours per worker did not. We analyze the decline in average hours worked across European countries and find that (i) it is not cyclical but predominantly structural, extending a long-term trend that predates COVID-19, (ii) it mainly reflects reduced hours within worker groups, not a compositional shift towards lower-hours jobs and workers, (iii) men—particularly those with young children—and youth drive this drop, (iv) declines in actual hours match declines in desired hours. Policy reforms could help involuntary parttimers and women with young children raise their actual hours towards desired levels, but the aggregate impact on average hours would be limited to 0.5 to 1.5 percent. Overall, there is scant evidence of slack at the intensive margin in European labor markets, and the trend fall in average hours worked seems unlikely to reverse.
Florian Misch
and
Mr. Alexander Pitt
Labor force particiaption (LFP) in Romania is—at 66.8 percent in 2022—significantly lower than the EU average, especially among women and less educated people. With a declining working-age population, rasing LFP could yield signifcant benefits including by boosting long-term growth, mitigating the fiscal impact of an ageing society, and reducing inequality. Key policies to boost LFP include provision of affordabel high-quality childcare, and improving education standards.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the reasons for Romania’s low labor force participation (LFP), and outlines policy options to raise it. It provides an overview over Romania’s demographic challenges, analyzes LFP across demographic groups, and identifies possible causes. The paper also outlines policy options that could help raise LFP of specific population groups and presents simple simulations of the impact on overall LFP and potential gross domestic product if LFP of particular groups were to increase. Boosting Romania’s low LFP opens opportunities to mitigate the impact of an ageing society and to support Romania’s convergence to Western European peers. Higher LFP could also help mitigate the fiscal impact of an ageing society. The reasons for the Romania’s underperformance in education are difficult to pinpoint, but public education expenditure is by far the lowest in the EU. Moreover, raising education spending would constitute a significant investment and would need to be coupled with targeted reforms in the education system.
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
, and
Jay Rappaport
Labor markets in the UK have been characterized by markedly widening wage inequality for lowskill (non-college) women, a trend that predates the pandemic. We examine the contribution of job polarization to this trend by estimating age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment in different occupations and the wages earned therein over 2001-2019. For recent generations of women, cohort effects indicate a higher likelihood of employment in low-paying manual jobs relative to high-paying abstract jobs. However, cohort effects also underpin falling wages for post-1980 cohorts across all occupations. We find that falling returns to labor rather than job polarization has been a key driver of rising inter-age wage inequality among low-skill females. Wage-level cohort effects underpin a nearly 10 percent fall in expected lifetime earnings for low-skill women born in 1990 relative to those born in 1970.
Samuel Pienknagura
and
Christopher Evans
Chile’s pension system came under close scrutiny in recent years. This paper takes stock of the adequacy of the system and highlights its challenges. Chile’s defined contribution system was quite influential when introduced, and was taken as an example by other countries. However, it is now delivering low replacement rates relative to OECD peers, as its parameters did not adapt over time to changing demographics and global returns, while informality persists in the labor market. In the absence of reforms, the system’s inability to deliver adequate outcomes for a large share of participants will continue to magnify, as demographic trends and low global interest rates will continue to reduce replacement rates. In addition, recent legislation allowing for pension savings withdrawals to counter the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, is projected to further reduce replacement rates and increase fiscal costs. A substantial improvement in replacement rates is feasible, via a reform that raises contribution rates and the retirement age, coupled with policies that increases workers’ contribution density.