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Social Science > Demography

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Bulgarian pension system. The paper provides an overview of the pension system and describes measures taken in the last decade to increase its financial sustainability. It highlights how the measures taken during and after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic structurally affect the financial sustainability of the pension system. The paper also shows that the recent measures compound the long-term pressure related to an aging population. It also details policies that could contain the projected increase in pension spending. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
GVC Integration; IMF staff calculation; return on assets; GVC participation; EU country; current ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Exports; Public enterprises; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows
Cem Cakmakli
,
Selva Demiralp
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
,
Sevcan Yesiltas
, and
Muhammed A. Yildirim
We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages.
Keywords:
WP; stimulus package; open economy; inflation rate; COVID-19; Debt Monetisation; External Finance; SIR; Input-Output Tables; Emerging Markets; economic cost; monetary policy; foreign currency; debt monetization; supply and demand; total output; utility function; swap line; Demand elasticity; Global; closed economy; Unconventional monetary policies
Cover Departmental Papers
Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe
Cristina Batog
,
Ernesto Crivelli
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Zoltan Jakab
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
,
Anvar Musayev
,
Iva Petrova
,
Mr. Alasdair Scott
,
Ms. Anna Shabunina
,
Andreas Tudyka
,
Xin Cindy Xu
, and
Ruifeng Zhang
The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; CESEE country; labor market; public spending; current account; workforce aging; labor force; retirement age; IMF staff calculation; CESEE economy; CESEE workforce; baseline labor force scenario; EU country; per capita income; CESEE population; physical capital; workforce cohort; Aging; Labor force; Total factor productivity; Western Europe; Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic Challenges
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu
,
Nicoletta Batini
,
Mr. Helge Berger
,
Ms. Enrica Detragiache
,
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin
,
Ms. Linda Kaltani
,
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
,
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
, and
Petia Topalova
Against the background of political turmoil in the Middle-East, Europe faces an unprecedented surge in asylum applications. In analyzing the economic impact of this inflow, this paper draws from the experience of previous economic migrants and refugees, mindful of the fact that the characteristics of economic migrants can be different from refugees. In the short-run, additional public expenditure will provide a small positive impact on GDP, concentrated in the main destination countries of Germany, Sweden and Austria. Over the longer-term, depending on the speed and success of the integration of refugees in the labor market, the increase in the labor force can have a more lasting impact on growth and the public finances. Here good policies will make an important difference. These include lowering barriers to labor markets for refugees, for example through wage subsidies to employers, and, in particular, reducing legal barriers to labor market participation during asylum process, removing obstacles to entrepreneurship/self-employment, providing job training and job search assistance, as well as language skills. While native workers often have legitimate concerns about the impact of immigrants on wages and employment, past experience indicates that any adverse effects are limited and temporary.
Keywords:
SDN; pay; immigrant; asylum seeker; refugee; displaced people; entry wage; Euro Area; Migration; Refugees; Labor Market; unemployment rate; subsidy program; wage subsidy; EU country; labor force; wage gap; private sector; aggregate demand; wage assimilation; labor market integration; Labor markets; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 4
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In this issue, John T. Cuddington and Daniel Jerrett from the Colorado School of Mines examine whether metals prices are in a "super cycle" upswing driven by intensive economic growth in China, in particular. Using evidence from U.S. Social Security records, James E. Duggan, Robert Gillingham, and John S. Greenlees look at the empirical relationship between mortality and lifetime income. Pär Österholm and Jeromin Zettelmeyer analyze the effect of external conditions on growth in Latin America, while Junko Koeda presents a debt overhang model for low-income countries. The issue also includes a comprehensive index for Volume 55 (2008) by author, subject, and title.
Keywords:
SP; SBA; global economy model; commodity price; oil price movement; lifetime earnings; iteration method; oil price; price series; Wages; Income; Metal prices; Aging; Global; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Further Thoughts on a New Quota Formula, and Statistical Appendices I and II
International Monetary Fund
The Board of Governors in a Resolution adopted on September 18 requested that the Executive Board reach agreement on a new quota formula, starting discussions soon after the Annual Meetings in Singapore. According to the Resolution, this work should be completed by the Annual Meetings in 2007, and no later than the IMFC Meeting in the Spring of 2008. The Resolution states that the new formula should provide a simpler and more transparent means of capturing members’ relative positions in the world economy. This new formula would provide the basis for a second round of ad hoc quota increases, as part of the program of quota and voice reform to be completed by the Annual Meetings in 2007, and no later than by the Annual Meetings of 2008. This paper explores key issues related to a new quota formula as background for an informal Board seminar. This seminar is the first opportunity for the Board to discuss the new formula since the adoption of the Resolution. The paper first reviews the broad considerations and principles that should guide the design of a new quota formula, taking as a starting point the roles of quotas in the Fund. The paper also considers more specific issues in that light, such as the selection of variables and possible functional forms for the new formula. In examining these issues, the paper draws on the extensive discussion of the quota formulas in recent years, taking up questions raised both within the Board and in other fora.
Keywords:
PP; IMF document; document; href; body; specification of GDP; average GDP; current receipt; quota formula; Capital flows; International investment position; Purchasing power parity; Market exchange rates; International banking; Africa; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Georgia: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Progress Report
International Monetary Fund
This report is based on the progress of the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Program (EDPRP) in Georgia. It highlights the status of measures intended for rapid and sustainable economic development in the country through further fine-tuning of administrative mechanisms, increase of transparency, improvement of the business climate, and liberalization of the economy. It explains the ongoing and planed reforms in the sectoral spectrum and rehabilitation of post-conflict zones. Economic processes have developed positively resulting in acceleration of the economic growth rate in the country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; poverty level; motor transport; State budget allocation; air transportation; awarded state voucher; executive authorities; government of Georgia; international airport; management system; State sector priority; State budget; State curriculum; State program; deregulation reform; communication company; Global
Cover IMF Survey
Turquía: De la crisis a la recuperación
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; country; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
Turquie: Le rebond après la crise
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; country; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 33, Issue 17
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For a few months in late 2000 and early 2001, Turkey hovered on the brink of economic collapse. High inflation, a large public debt, a growing current account deficit, and delays in restructuring the economy triggered a loss of confidence among investors and caused a run on the country’s banks. To deal with the crisis, the government undertook a sharp fiscal correction, floated the exchange rate, and initiated wide-ranging structural reforms as part of an ambitious package supported by the IMF. Three years later, Turkey is on its way to becoming a new tiger economy. But it has faltered before. Will it manage to stay the course this time? Michael Deppler and Reza Moghadam—respectively Director and Assistant Director in the IMF’s European Department—spoke with Camilla Andersen of the IMF Survey about the country’s prospects.
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; country; Rodrigo de Rato; fund Facility; IMF survey; equivalent amount; growth Facility; IMF purchase; Aging; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Demographic change; Global; Africa; Asia and Pacific; South America; Sub-Saharan Africa