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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Syrian Arab Republic x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict
Natalija Novta
and
Evgenia Pugacheva
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.
Keywords:
WP; number; conflict onset; battle; refugee; log GDP; refugee flow; conflict country; GDP decline; refugee status; number of refugee; country well; refugee dynamics; country size; conflict GDP; country population; asylum country; Public expenditure review; Consumption; GDP forecasting; Private consumption; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; conflict; war; growth; trade; migration; destination country population; IMF country expert
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Further Thoughts on a New Quota Formula, and Statistical Appendices I and II
International Monetary Fund
The Board of Governors in a Resolution adopted on September 18 requested that the Executive Board reach agreement on a new quota formula, starting discussions soon after the Annual Meetings in Singapore. According to the Resolution, this work should be completed by the Annual Meetings in 2007, and no later than the IMFC Meeting in the Spring of 2008. The Resolution states that the new formula should provide a simpler and more transparent means of capturing members’ relative positions in the world economy. This new formula would provide the basis for a second round of ad hoc quota increases, as part of the program of quota and voice reform to be completed by the Annual Meetings in 2007, and no later than by the Annual Meetings of 2008. This paper explores key issues related to a new quota formula as background for an informal Board seminar. This seminar is the first opportunity for the Board to discuss the new formula since the adoption of the Resolution. The paper first reviews the broad considerations and principles that should guide the design of a new quota formula, taking as a starting point the roles of quotas in the Fund. The paper also considers more specific issues in that light, such as the selection of variables and possible functional forms for the new formula. In examining these issues, the paper draws on the extensive discussion of the quota formulas in recent years, taking up questions raised both within the Board and in other fora.
Keywords:
PP; IMF document; document; href; body; specification of GDP; average GDP; current receipt; quota formula; Capital flows; International investment position; Purchasing power parity; Market exchange rates; International banking; Africa; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?
Mr. Vivek B. Arora
and
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
This paper empirically examines the extent to which a country's economic growth is influenced by its trading partner economies. Panel estimation results based on four decades of data for over 100 countries show that trading partners' growth and relative income levels have a strong effect on domestic growth, even after controlling for the influence of common global and regional trends. One interpretation is that conditional convergence is stronger, the richer are a country's trading partners. A general implication of the results is that industrial countries benefit from trading with developing countries, which grow rapidly, while developing countries benefit from trading with industrial countries, which have relatively high incomes.
Keywords:
WP; trading partner; GDP; trading partner growth; country's trading partners; International Trade; Economic Growth; trading partners' growth; growth effect; growth performance; trading partner data; Personal income; Terms of trade; Population growth; Direction of trade; Global
Cover Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa
Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. George T. Abed
and
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.

Keywords:
MISC PUBS; Misc.; country; MENA region; MENA country; oil exporter; privatization receipt; oil-producing country; MENA oil country; MENA countries' experience; a number of country; Public sector; Total factor productivity; Population growth; Labor force; Global; East Asia; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover International Comparisons of Government Expenditure Revisited
International Comparisons of Government Expenditure Revisited
The Developing Countries 1975-86: Occa Paper No.69
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This chapter discusses the changes that have taken place in the underlying structural relationships determining government expenditures between 1975 and 1986. The paper describes the methodological problems in analyzing the determinants of government expenditure patterns, and the issues involved in making cross-country expenditure comparisons, and the problems confronting country economists in assessing a country's expenditure profile. The Tait-Heller study concluded that the international expenditure comparison (IEC) framework provided a “starting point” for analysis. In many respects, this conclusion would still appear valid; if anything, the issues associated with using the IEC indices have become more rather than less complex. Data limitations also pose a limiting factor on the usefulness of an analysis of the IEC indices of a country, and even more strongly suggest its use only as complementary to more detailed sectoral and economic analyses of expenditure profiles. The results for the developing countries in the European region are almost identical to those observed in Africa, with the key exception being an increased priority for expenditure on social security and welfare and a decline in the priority attached to education.

Keywords:
OP; app02tab16fn01; expenditure share; app02tab13fn01; comparison indices; aggregate expenditure category; expenditure equation; expenditure structure; Income; Total expenditures; Interest payments; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe; shape expenditure pattern; expenditure category; structure of a country