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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • South Sudan, Republic of x
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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-The Cost of Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Human Capital and Infrastructure Development
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The mission estimates that making substantial progress in critical SDG sectors in Uganda would require additional annual spending of about 18.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Relative to low-income developing countries (LIDCs), additional spending in Uganda is higher in the social sectors and lower in the infrastructure sectors (Figure). Overall, Uganda’s additional spending is above the median LIDC and similar to the median Sub-Saharan African (SSA) country. (This analysis is an assessment of the spending to achieve a high performance in selected SDGs in Uganda and does not include an examination of options to finance the spending needs.) • Health—expanding the supply of medical staff. Total health care spending is low (4.2 percent of GDP) relative to peers, and there is substantial room to increase the efficiency of spending: health outcomes are below those of several other countries with similar spending. Overall, we estimate that total health care spending would have to gradually increase by an additional 7.4 percent of GDP in 2030 relative to today’s spending, to deliver superior health care outcomes. A major contributor to the additional cost is the need to substantially increase the supply of doctors—more than 16-fold—and to nearly triple the number of other health personnel. • Education—strengthening both quality and quantity of services. Uganda’s young population—60 percent are school-aged, a higher share than in the East African Community (EAC) and LIDC peers—combined with a relatively low enrollment rate, means that the country needs to invest in getting its children into schools. However, just as important is improving the currently low level of educational quality. Toward this goal, class sizes need to fall by hiring more teachers, thus bringing the student-teacher ratio down from 28 to 19. Public spending, currently well below LIDC and EAC averages, would need to triple as a share of GDP to help deliver on these goals. We estimate that Uganda’s total expenditures on education would need to increase by an additional 6.7 percent of GDP from its current level of 7.1 percent of GDP. • Water and sanitation—aiming at safely managed water and sanitation for all. Uganda is below regional and income-group peers in water and sanitation standards. In particular, while there has been progress in water provision, sanitation services have hardly improved in the past two decades, and its provision is lower than most countries in the subregion. Closing the water and sanitation gaps will require an additional annual spending of 1.1 percent of GDP, including maintenance costs to counteract depreciation. The bulk of the cost burden comes from safely managed water in rural areas, given the relatively high unit cost of such facilities and the large rural population unserved by this type of facility. • Electricity—investing in transmission and distribution networks to increase access. The vast majority of Uganda’s electricity is generated by renewable energy (hydropower). Overall electricity consumption per capita, at 83kilowatt-hour (kWh), strongly lags LIDCs and is below what would be expected given its level of GDP per capita. Transmission and distribution networks need to catch up with installed capacity, which, at 1,347 megawatts (MW), is far ahead of peak demand at 793 MW. We estimate that expanding current access, serving the future population through 2030, and increasing consumption in line with economic growth, will require annual investments reaching 0.4 percent of GDP in 2030. • Roads—gradually increasing rural access. Raising access to roads from its current level of 53 percent of the rural population to 75 percent by 2030 will require about 20.4 thousand additional kilometers of all-weather roads. While rural road access is higher than LIDCs, road quality lags subregional peers, thus the expansion of access will also need to include upgrading of roads in that are in poor condition. We estimate that this will require annual investments of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2030.
Keywords:
Uganda; Sustainable Development Goals; Social Spending; Infrastructure Spending.; EU-International Monetary Fund; IMF resident Representative; IMF team; FAD department; SDG index; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Nations Become Fragile: An AI-Augmented Bird’s-Eye View (with a Case Study of South Sudan)
Tohid Atashbar
In this study we introduce and apply a set of machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques to analyze multi-dimensional fragility-related data. Our analysis of the fragility data collected by the OECD for its States of Fragility index showed that the use of such techniques could provide further insights into the non-linear relationships and diverse drivers of state fragility, highlighting the importance of a nuanced and context-specific approach to understanding and addressing this multi-aspect issue. We also applied the methodology used in this paper to South Sudan, one of the most fragile countries in the world to analyze the dynamics behind the different aspects of fragility over time. The results could be used to improve the Fund’s country engagement strategy (CES) and efforts at the country.
Keywords:
Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; Fragility Trap; Fragility Syndrome; Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence; AI technique; fragility data; Bird's-Eye View; artificial intelligence technique; aggregate fragility; Artificial intelligence and machine learning; Global; Middle East; North Africa; South Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Perspectives économiques régionales, avril 2015
Perspectives économiques régionales, avril 2015
Afrique subsaharienne
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

La chute des cours du pétrole et d'autres produits de base a nui à l'Afrique subsaharienne. La région devrait toutefois connaître une année supplémentaire de bons résultats économiques. La croissance devrait toutefois rester atone en Afrique du Sud, tandis qu'en Guinée, au Libéria et en Sierra Leone, l'épidémie d'Ebola continue d'avoir de lourdes conséquences économiques et sociales. Ce rapport examine également le profit que l'Afrique subsaharienne pourrait tirer du dividende démographique causé par une hausse sans précédent de la population en âge de travailler et étudie le niveau d'intégration de la région dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales.

Keywords:
REO; background color; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa
Navigating Headwinds
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The sharp decline in oil and other commodity prices have adversely impacted sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the region is projected to register another year of solid economic performance. In South Africa, however, growth is expected to remain lackluster, while in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone the Ebola outbreak continues to exact a heavy economic and social toll. This report also considers how sub-Saharan Africa can harness the demographic dividend from an unprecedented increase in the working age population, as well as the strength of the region's integration into global value chains.

Keywords:
REO; background color; Sub-Saharan Africa; fragile country; oil exporter; MDRI country; Zimbabwe dollar; oil price; age population; Aging; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Global value chains; Africa; Global; East Asia; Southern Africa; dividend sub-Saharan Africa; demographic transition; trade openness; exports consist; medium-fertility scenario; Labor force participation; Caribbean