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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
Sidra Rehman
and
Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Keywords:
conflict; temperature; precipitation; climate change; weather shock; conflict intensity; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; precipitation shock; Natural disasters; Food security; East Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Somalia highlights National Accounts Statistics Mission. The mission’s purpose was to provide technical assistance to the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) in conducting a comprehensive gross domestic product (GDP) revision to incorporate latest source data and methods and to update the base year from 2017 to 2022. The mission assisted the SNBS to produce updated annual GDP time series up to 2022. New data sources were incorporated and the base year for constant prices updated from 2017 to 2022. There is a continuing need to improve source data. While the GDP compilation system makes good use of the limited available data, the foundation for the national accounts remains weak. SNBS will conduct a Business Census in respect of 2023, with implementation gearing up at the end of 2023. It also plans to conduct the first Population Census since 1985, which will also support improvements, especially if designed to provide measures of the informal sector. To support progress toward objectives, the mission recommended a detailed action plan with the priority recommendations carrying particular weight to make headway in improving the completeness of Somalia’s national accounts statistics.
Keywords:
GDP; GDP by expenditure; GDP at constant prices; rebased; comprehensive revisions; household consumption.; compilation system; SNBS website; GDP data; population census result; IMF surveillance; IMF's statistics department; agriculture census; Somalia GDP estimate; Imports; Household consumption; Consumption
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
This paper reviews the significant macro-fiscal challenges posed by climate change in Djibouti and the costs of mitigation and adaptation policies. The paper concludes that Djibouti is susceptible to climate change and related costs are potentially large. Investing now in adaptation and mitigation has large benefits in terms of reducing the related costs in the future. Reforms to generate the fiscal space are therefore needed and investment for mitigation and adaptation to climate change should be built into the long-term fiscal projections. Finally, concerted international efforts and stepping up regional cooperation could help moderate climate-related macro-fiscal risks.
Keywords:
WP; Djibouti; cost; GDP; government; climate change; inclusive growth; climate warming; mitigation effort; climate change mitigation; World Bank climate change knowledge portal; visions Djibouti; climate adaptation investment; production capacity; climate change challenge; Natural disasters; Climate finance; Fiscal space; Renewable energy; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Djibouti: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) on Djibouti explains past strategies and the PRSP formulation process. Djibouti suffers from a gross lack of reliable health statistics. Available information gives only a fragmented picture of the reality, but globally, it reveals a difficult health situation. The promotion of a coherent and integrated employment policy must be one of the cornerstones of the poverty reduction strategy. Being a new country with few human resources, Djibouti’s governance problems considerably limit the effectiveness of government economic and social programs for the poor.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reform program; regional council; free trade zone; development program; job market; medical treatment; public finance; public transport; Poverty reduction strategy; Global; Africa