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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Bridging the Mobile Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costing under Demographic Change and Urbanization
Mr. Emre Alper
and
Michal Miktus
Digital connectivity, including through the modern cellular network technologies, is expected to play a key role for the Future of Work in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimate the cost of introducing a full-scale 4G network by 2025 in SSA and an operable 5G network by 2040. We adapt the costing model of Lombardo (2019) by accounting for the significant demographic transformation and rapid urbanization in SSA. We use the WorldPop and GADM databases and the UN’s medium-variant population projections to project the population densities at the highest level of administrative division for each SSA country in 2025 and 2040. For full 4G connectivity, the required capital and operational costs stands approximately at US$14 billion by 2025 and for 5G connectivity, costs amount to US$57 billion in 2040, conditional on having the 4G in place by 2025. These costs roughly translate to 8.4 percent of annual subscriber income, on a median basis, by 2025 for 4G and 4.9 percent of subscriber income by 2040 for 5G. Having the infrastructure in place is not sufficient to bridge the mobile Digital Divide. In addition, policies are needed to address affordability and knowledge gaps.
Keywords:
WP; internet access; Digitalization; 5G cellular network; Demographics; Urbanization; SSA economy; SSA population; SSA GDP; technology adoption; aggregate cost estimate; network cost; Infrastructure; Capital spending; Public expenditure review; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digital Connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective
Mr. Emre Alper
and
Michal Miktus
Higher digital connectivity is expected to bring opportunities to leapfrog development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Experience within the region demonstrates that if there is an adequate digital infrastructure and a supportive business environment, new forms of business spring up and create jobs for the educated as well as the less educated. The paper first confirms the global digital divide through the unsupervised machine learning clustering K-means algorithm. Next, it derives a composite digital connectivity index, in the spirit of De Muro-Mazziotta-Pareto, for about 190 economies. Descriptive analysis shows that majority of SSA countries lag in digital connectivity, specifically in infrastructure, internet usage, and knowledge. Finally, using fractional logit regressions we document that better business enabling and regulatory environment, financial access, and urbanization are associated with higher digital connectivity.
Keywords:
WP; digital connectivity; EDAI SSA distribution; account ownership; ICT indicators database; SSA countries lag; Digitalization; unsupervised machine learning; fractional logit model; connectivity index; SSA economy; Information technology in revenue administration; Infrastructure; Machine learning; Income; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
Mr. Paulo Drummond
,
Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
, and
Shu Yu
Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100. The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity, which if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend. We quantify the potential demographic dividend based on the experience of other regions. The dividend will vary across countries, depending on such factors as the initial working age population as well as the speed and magnitude of demographic transition. It will be critical to ensure that the right supportive policies, including those fostering human capital accumulation and job creation, are in place to translate this opportunity into concrete economic growth.
Keywords:
WP; age population; real GDP; Demographic Dividend; Economic Growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Panel Estimates; age share; share matter; GDP growth; working age share; estimation result; Aging; Labor force participation; Demographic change; Africa; Asia and Pacific; North America; Northern Europe