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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 44 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
How Widespread is FDI Fragmentation?
Joanne Tan
This paper examines the extent to which FDI has fragmented across countries, the ways it has done so, using a modified gravity approach. The paper finds that FDI fragmentation is, for now, not a widespread phenomenon. Instead, fragmentation is circumscribed in two ways. First, the paper finds that geo-economic fragmentation has occurred only for certain industries that likely have strategic value, including computer manufacturing, information and communications, transport, as well as professional, scientific and technical services. Secondly, fragmentation appears to be more pronounced for outward FDI from the US, notably in a shift of US FDI from China to advanced Europe and the rest of Asia. This shift appears to be driven by both the intensive and extensive margin. Fragmentation is also more pronounced for immediate rather than ultimate FDI, with evidence of ultimate parent companies aligning the geopolitical mix of their intermediaries more closely to that of their final FDI host destinations. Overall, the results suggest that fragmentation, where found, may be a response to targeted policies that have placed curbs on certain types of FDI on national security grounds, rather than an indiscriminate breakup of investment links between non-ally countries.
Keywords:
Fragmentation; Foreign Direct Investment; FDI fragmentation; host destination; FDI from the US; FDI from China; FDI host destination; Exchange rates; Manufacturing; Trade agreements; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Bulgarian pension system. The paper provides an overview of the pension system and describes measures taken in the last decade to increase its financial sustainability. It highlights how the measures taken during and after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic structurally affect the financial sustainability of the pension system. The paper also shows that the recent measures compound the long-term pressure related to an aging population. It also details policies that could contain the projected increase in pension spending. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
GVC Integration; IMF staff calculation; return on assets; GVC participation; EU country; current ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Exports; Public enterprises; Global; Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, June 2023
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
In this issue, we focus on the forces disrupting the established international trade order, such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and geopolitical fragmentation. We also look at how global trade is being reshaped by technology and policy priorities, such as climate change and equality.
Keywords:
commonwealth member; trade openness; policy choice; trade volume; commonwealth nation; Aging; Exports; Export restrictions; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Poverty Reduction Strategy and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. Taking into account the general low level of income and the high incidence of poverty, many citizens of the Republic of Moldova look at cultural opportunities and personal development according to the residual principle. The resources allocated by households to crop-related activities are very small. Cultural infrastructure is in an advanced state of physical degradation, which poses a real problem of accessibility of cultural products. The general and specific development goals which the SND suggests for the perspective of 2030 reflect the aspirations of increasing the welfare of the people of the Republic of Moldova, improving the lives of citizens, Europeanization of state institutions, strengthening democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights, as well as bringing the Republic of Moldova closer to European standards and values, which will ensure the process of accession of our country to the European Union. In the medium to long term, sustainable income growth can be achieved by increasing the competitiveness of firms, raising labor productivity and integrating marginalized people and groups into the processes of economic value creation.
Keywords:
growth strategy; development partner; copyright page; publication service; justice system; Aging; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband
Edward Oughton
,
Mr. David Amaglobeli
, and
Mr. Mariano Moszoro
We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.
Keywords:
Broadband; Digital Infrastructure; Public Investment; Sustainable Development Goals; cost decrease; investment requirement; infrastructure investment; cost sensitivity; data consumption; policy assessment; estimation metrics; cost driver; data traffic; infrastructure cost modeling; Digitalization; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Caribbean; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Asia and Pacific
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Future of Saving: The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World
Mr. David Amaglobeli
,
Hua Chai
,
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Kamil Dybczak
,
Mauricio Soto
, and
Alexander F. Tieman
This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables.
Keywords:
SDN; private saving; saving rate; aggregate saving; panel regression; household saving; Aging; Demographics; Saving; Pension Spending; public saving; saving behavior; pension saving; retirement age; national saving; saving decision; C. saving projection; saving instrument; Private savings; Pensions; Demographic change; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
,
Lone Engbo Christiansen
,
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Mr. Nadeem Ilahi
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Mr. Gil Mehrez
,
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Ms. Faezeh Raei
,
Ms. Alaina P Rhee
, and
Ms. Daria V Zakharova
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Keywords:
SDN; CESEE country; CESEE emigration; labor force; CESEE emigrant; migration flow; Emigration; remittances; growth; convergence; Eastern Europe; EU migration scenario; remittance inflow; Migration; Income; Labor force participation; Baltics; Western Europe; Europe; EU policy scenario; UN migration scenario; income convergence; impact of emigration; emigration from CESEE; Skilled labor
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Kyrgyz Republic: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper on Kyrgyz Republic highlights that the period 2009 through filled with symbolic events marked a new milestone in the Kyrgyz Republic development and will enter the country’s history as the period of strength test for the Kyrgyz statehood and entire public administration system including socio-political, economic, environmental, financial and other areas of development management. The country development background during that period included the world financial crisis and growing uncertainty on world markets which created risks for all market actors including the Kyrgyzstan’s key trade partners such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. The government officially declared the country’s sustainable development-oriented policy. For Kyrgyzstan as a country with its still high poverty level, particularly in rural areas, and limited natural and financial resources, the sustainable development policy seems today’s logically and politically justified choice. The sustainable development model itself suggests striving for systemic, comprehensiveness, and balance in development. Transition to sustainable development suggests considering economic growth through the prism of human values and reasonable use of natural resources.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyz Republic government; staff training; community development; customs union; education system; feasibility study; foreign trade; government regulation; labor market; national budget; sustainable development; value chain; economic system; civil society; risk management; Sustainable development; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation
Frank Eich
,
Mauricio Soto
, and
Ms. Charleen A Gust
Pension reform is a key policy challenge in Russia. This paper examines how pension spending could increase in Russia in the absence of reforms, quantifies the impact of some recent proposals, and suggests some alternatives that would ensure public pension benefits - relative to wages - not fall from current levels while containing spending.
Keywords:
WP; pension; disability pension; retirement age; pension system; Russia; pension reform; fiscal policy; pension spending; B. reducing pension eligibility; contribution pension; pension formula; pension age; pension finances; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Retirement; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Medium-Term Development Program: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; budget deficit; civil society; poverty level; customs union; development program; public-private partnership