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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Labor Force Participation in Romania
Florian Misch
and
Mr. Alexander Pitt
Labor force particiaption (LFP) in Romania is—at 66.8 percent in 2022—significantly lower than the EU average, especially among women and less educated people. With a declining working-age population, rasing LFP could yield signifcant benefits including by boosting long-term growth, mitigating the fiscal impact of an ageing society, and reducing inequality. Key policies to boost LFP include provision of affordabel high-quality childcare, and improving education standards.
Keywords:
Labor force participation; gender gap; demographics; IMF staff calculation; copyright page; rase LFP; policy implication; EU LFP level; Romania's LFP gender gap; Women; Aging; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the reasons for Romania’s low labor force participation (LFP), and outlines policy options to raise it. It provides an overview over Romania’s demographic challenges, analyzes LFP across demographic groups, and identifies possible causes. The paper also outlines policy options that could help raise LFP of specific population groups and presents simple simulations of the impact on overall LFP and potential gross domestic product if LFP of particular groups were to increase. Boosting Romania’s low LFP opens opportunities to mitigate the impact of an ageing society and to support Romania’s convergence to Western European peers. Higher LFP could also help mitigate the fiscal impact of an ageing society. The reasons for the Romania’s underperformance in education are difficult to pinpoint, but public education expenditure is by far the lowest in the EU. Moreover, raising education spending would constitute a significant investment and would need to be coupled with targeted reforms in the education system.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; energy mix; C. climate policy; policy pathway; EU LFP level; Romania team; Greenhouse gas emissions; Renewable energy; Women; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Poverty Reduction Strategy and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. Taking into account the general low level of income and the high incidence of poverty, many citizens of the Republic of Moldova look at cultural opportunities and personal development according to the residual principle. The resources allocated by households to crop-related activities are very small. Cultural infrastructure is in an advanced state of physical degradation, which poses a real problem of accessibility of cultural products. The general and specific development goals which the SND suggests for the perspective of 2030 reflect the aspirations of increasing the welfare of the people of the Republic of Moldova, improving the lives of citizens, Europeanization of state institutions, strengthening democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights, as well as bringing the Republic of Moldova closer to European standards and values, which will ensure the process of accession of our country to the European Union. In the medium to long term, sustainable income growth can be achieved by increasing the competitiveness of firms, raising labor productivity and integrating marginalized people and groups into the processes of economic value creation.
Keywords:
growth strategy; development partner; copyright page; publication service; justice system; Aging; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
assessment of the size; Consumer Goods import; Policy recommendation; regional disparity; policy recommendation; Current account; Current account deficits; Current account balance; External balance assessment (EBA); Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions
Benjamin Hilgenstock
and
Zsoka Koczan
The paper examines the evolution and drivers of labor force participation in European regions, focusing on the effects of trade and technology. As in the United States, rural regions within European countries saw more pronounced declines (or smaller increases) in participation than urban regions. Unlike in the United States, however, trade and technology, captured here using novel measures of initial exposures to routinization and offshoring, did not result in detachment from the workforce in European regions. Instead, regions with high initial exposures to routinization and offshoring experienced so-far larger increases in participation, likely driven by an added second worker effect.
Keywords:
WP; labor force; Labor force participation; exposure to routinization; exposure to offshoring; technology; automation; dependency ratio; cyclical condition; offshoring due; employment-reducing effect; supply chain integration; inactivity rate area; offshoring distribution; effects of automation; Employment; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the extent of corruption in Ukraine compared with other countries. The level of corruption in Ukraine is exceptionally high. This could severely undermine economic growth prospects by hindering private investment. Reducing corruption is therefore essential to speed economic convergence with the rest of Europe. Regional comparisons help identify best practices in reducing corruption. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted key measures that follow some of these best practices. The country is, however, facing several challenges, including the concentration of political and economic power in a small group of people, which may hamper effective anticorruption efforts.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ukraine; NBU Council; pension; pension benefit; pension system; ICRG corruption index; law enforcement agency; corruption effort; Pension spending; Corruption; Aging; Retirement; Inflation targeting; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights Bulgaria’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) sector and to assess its performance in a regional perspective. A detailed and rich firm-level dataset of state-owned and private firms was compiled for this note to compare key performance indicators of SOEs to private firms in the same sector and to similar firms in Croatia and Romania for a regional comparison. In some network industries, such as energy, SOEs are heavily loss-making. Large amounts of debt have been piled up notably in the energy and transport sectors which, to the extent that it is classified outside the general government accounts, can pose significant risk to public finances in the form of contingent liabilities if the SOEs run into financial difficulties. SOE profitability and resource allocation efficiency largely lag private firms in the same sectors, even when isolating SOEs engaged in competitive market activities and hence classified outside of general government. Coupled with comparably poor output quality, these challenges have the potential to impair competitiveness and productivity across the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bond yield; firm; Bulgaria; ECB policy rate; Bulgaria yield regression; currency bond yield; interbank market rate; insolvency process; ECB policy action; interest rate; Solvency; Aging; Public enterprises; Bond yields; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Threats to external stability in the pre-crisis period have now been reduced substantially and foreign non-debt creating flows have declined, sufficient to support external stability. The global economic downturn has raised challenges for evaluating the countries’ fiscal stance and fiscal policy focus should be lowering support to debt sustainability, private sector development, and the currency board stability. The two entity pension funds have been under increasing financial pressures. Putting the public pension systems on a sound footing will encompass a number of complementary steps.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension; current account; FBIH Army Civil Commanders; pension system; RS pension strategy; dependency ratio; voucher-privatized enterprise; labor market; disaggregated CAB; Pension spending; Pensions; Current account deficits; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that it allows the systematic and rapid analysis of different policy options. The model embodies the key principle that, in an inflation-targeting framework, the role of monetary policy is to provide an anchor for inflation and inflation expectations. The development and calibration of this model is an ongoing process.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pay; fertility rate; employment rate; dependency rate; replacement rate; inflation target; retirement age; forecast inflation path; net migration rate; fertility scenario; government wage; Wage adjustments; Wages; Public sector wages; Inflation; Pension spending; Western Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes developments in Croatia’s banking sector since independence in 1991, focusing on the effects of independence, war, transition, and the bank rehabilitation process. Changes in market structure, concentration, and ownership, as well as financial performance are highlighted. The paper reviews the current legal environment governing banking operations and improvements needed to strengthen the legislative framework. Some forward-looking conclusions are presented. The paper also examines selected aspects of Croatia’s export performance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Croatia; bank; wage; expenditure arrears; share; replacement rate; price growth; payment obligation; benefits-to-GDP ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Total expenditures; Exports; Commercial banks; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe