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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 16 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Housing Supply and Markets x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market downturn, both locally and in Mainland China. The territory’s integration with Mainland China, including in the context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative, has significantly increased in recent years, but rising regional competition has put pressure on some of its traditional growth engines, prompting the authorities to pursue new sources of growth, including from innovative, technology-driven sectors.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers and Effects of Residence and Citizenship by Investment
Sofronis Clerides
,
Maria Delgado Coelho
,
Alexander D Klemm
, and
Christos Kotsogiannis
This paper discusses under what circumstances residence and citizenship by investment (RBI or CBI) schemes could be used by individuals engaging in tax avoidance or evasion. It describes the market for CBI and RBI and how features of the offered programs might reveal the underlying motivations of governments offering them. The paper then presents empirical evidence on the conditions under which such schemes are offered. Finally, the paper estimates the impact of such schemes on investment, house prices, and public revenues.
Keywords:
Residence by Investment; Citizenship by Investment; Tax Evasion.; house price growth; CRBI scheme; investment requirement; CRBI program; CRBI data; CBI program; Housing prices; Personal income tax; Tax evasion; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines macroeconomic impact of migration in Australia. Migration in Australia has historically been a significant source of population growth, with a third of the population born overseas. Migration is set to become even more important as the population natural growth rate declines. Australia attracts some of the best-educated migrants to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries who are mostly skilled workers and students, with high labor force participation rates and low unemployment. Disentangling macroeconomic effects of migration from drivers of migration is challenging, but within Australia, migration surges have historically been associated with higher growth and favorable labor market outcomes, with negligible price pressures except in the housing market. Cross-country analysis using instrumental variables confirms a positive impact of migration on macroeconomic outcomes—output, employment, and productivity—without significant inflationary impact. While housing affordability is impacted at the margin, this could represent structural supply shortages and would be best addressed by boosting supply.
Keywords:
inflow shock; labor market outcome; I. Effects of Migration shock; macroeconomic outcome; labour outcome; Migration; Labor force participation; Population growth; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Flattening the Curve and the Flight of the Rich: Pandemic-Induced Shifts in US and European Housing Markets
Nina Biljanovska
and
Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
The pattern of increasing suburban house prices relative to urban centers initiated during the pandemic continues to hold across the top 30 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). In contrast, European countries such as Denmark, France, and the United Kingdom did not experience a similar shift in valuations. We posit and find supporting evidence that these divergent patterns partially due to differences in the characteristics of suburban areas, particularly in terms of household income and property sizes; with European suburbs being relatively poorer and characterized by smaller housing units. We show that, in the US, MSAs with suburban features more akin to those in European cities generally experienced little to no increase in suburban housing prices compared to their urban centers. Finally, our findings indicate that migration patterns of the high-income population might have partially influenced the urban-suburban revaluation in the US.
Keywords:
Property prices; House price gradient; City structure; High-income population mobility; population mobility; price gradient; housing unit; income gap; Housing prices; Income; Real estate prices; Inflation; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities
Ms. Yuko Hashimoto
,
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
, and
Xiaoxiao Zhang
How does a shrinking population affect the housing market? In this study, drawing on Japan’s experience, we find that there exists an asymmetric relationship between housing prices and population change. Due to the durability of housing structures, the decline in housing prices associated with population losses is estimated to be larger than the rise in prices associated with population increases. Given that population losses have been and are projected to be more acute in rural areas than urban areas in Japan, the on-going demographic transition in Japan could worsen regional disparities, as falling house prices in rural areas could intensify population outflows. Policy measures to promote more even population growth across regions, and avoid the over-supply of houses, are critical to stabilize house prices with a shrinking population.
Keywords:
WP; house price; price; house; housing price; price appreciation; condominium price; price dynamics; price decline; price change; Housing prices; Housing; Population growth; Inflation; population change; house prices; durable housing model; akiya (vacant houses); regional disparity
Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US
Mr. Damien Puy
,
Mr. Anil Ari
, and
Ms. Yu Shi
We test whether foreign demand matters for local house prices in the US using an identification strategy based on the existence of “home bias abroad” in international real estate markets. Following an extreme political crisis event abroad, a proxy for a strong and exogenous shift in foreign demand, we show that house prices rise disproportionately more in neighbourhoods with a high concentration of population originating from the crisis country. This effect is strong, persistent, and robust to the exclusion of major cities. We also show that areas that were already expensive in the late 1990s have experienced the strongest foreign demand shocks and the biggest drop in affordability between 2000 and 2017. Our findings suggest a non-trivial causal effect of foreign demand shocks on local house prices over the last 20 years, especially in neighbourhoods that were already rather unaffordable for the median household.
Keywords:
WP; time series; house price; housing boom; foreign demand shocks; interaction term; housing affordability; Housing prices; Foreign currency exposure; Housing; Real estate prices; Global; House Prices; Political Risk; Capital Flows
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper assesses the relationship between demographic trends and housing prices in Japan. Among various issues in the context of regional disparities, the paper focus on regional differences in population dynamics to try and understand to what extent demographic trends have influenced housing market prices in Japan in the past twenty years. Large cities, notably the Greater Tokyo area, are experiencing net migration inflows, while other regions are experiencing net migration outflows. Due to the durability of housing compared to other forms of investment, the magnitude of house price declines associated with population losses is larger than that of house price increases associated with population gains. These model-based predictions are likely to underestimate the actual fall in house prices associated with future population losses, as expectations of lower housing prices in the future could trigger more population outflows and disposal of houses, especially in rural areas. The paper suggests policy measures to help close regional disparities and avoid potential over-investment by taking account of demographic trends for housing supply.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Japan; fertility rate; income; income balance; fertility rate relationship; IMF staff calculation; Japan's fertility rate; GDP shock; Personal income; Housing prices; Price stabilization; Tourism; Inflation; Global; Middle East; Europe; North America; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries
Remi Jedwab
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
, and
Anthony Yezer
It is obvious that holding city population constant, differences in cities across the world are enormous. Urban giants in poor countries are not large using measures such as land area, interior space or value of output. These differences are easily reconciled mathematically as population is the product of land area, structure space per unit land (i.e., heights), and population per unit interior space (i.e., crowding). The first two are far larger in the cities of developed countries while the latter is larger for the cities of developing countries. In order to study sources of diversity among cities with similar population, we construct a version of the standard urban model (SUM) that yields the prediction that the elasticity of city size with respect to income could be similar within both developing countries and developed countries. However, differences in income and urban technology can explain the physical differences between the cities of developed countries and developing countries. Second, using a variety of newly merged data sets, the predictions of the SUM for similarities and differences of cities in developed and developing countries are tested. The findings suggest that population is a sufficient statistic to characterize city differences among cities within the same country, not across countries.
Keywords:
WP; per capita income; economic development; density function; low income; Urbanization; Cities; Urban Giants; Population; Standard Urban Model; Measurement; Urban Technology; Building Heights; Sprawl; Housing; Transportation; income elasticity; building height; Income; Wages; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
and
Jelle Barkema
Using bilateral data on migration across US metro areas, we find strong evidence that increasing house price and income inequality has reduced long distance migration, the type most linked to jobs. For those migrating uphill, from a less to a more prosperous location, lower mobility is driven by increasing house price inequlity, as the disincentives from higher house prices dominate the incentives from higher earnings. By contrast, increasing income inequality drives the fall in downhill migration as the disincentives from lower earnings dominate the incentives from lower house prices. The model underlines the plight of those trapped in decaying metro areas—those “left behind”.
Keywords:
WP; house price; Migration; Inequality; Economic; Opportunity; long-distance migration; income divergence; B. migration result; migration flow; income differential; life-cycle migration pattern; migration data; destination increase migration; house price differential; Housing prices; Personal income; Income inequality; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of Netherlands: Netherlands: 2011 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of Netherlands: Netherlands
International Monetary Fund
In this study, the stability of the economy of the Netherlands is overviewed. Bank profitability has recovered. The housing and mortgage markets are relatively stable, although vulnerabilities to household balance sheets are rising. The results of stress tests in the context of the Financial Stability Assessment Program (FSAP) update are welcomed, which show resilience of bank capital and liquidity buffers under extreme scenarios. Executive Directors agreed that structural reforms continue to be key to lifting the Netherlands’s long-term growth prospects. Further reforms of the tax and benefit systems are needed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Netherlands; y-o-y growth; projection; deficit; government finances; supply condition; short term; government intervention; Housing prices; Output gap; Fiscal sustainability; Aging; Global