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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 50 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Environmental Economics: Generale x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
C. Hong Kong SAR; D. Policy discussion; C. Policy implication; D. mainland Chinese firm; debt-servicing capacity; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Aging; Climate finance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market downturn, both locally and in Mainland China. The territory’s integration with Mainland China, including in the context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative, has significantly increased in recent years, but rising regional competition has put pressure on some of its traditional growth engines, prompting the authorities to pursue new sources of growth, including from innovative, technology-driven sectors.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Laura Jaramillo
,
Aliona Cebotari
,
Yoro Diallo
,
Rhea Gupta
,
Yugo Koshima
,
Chandana Kularatne
,
Jeong Dae Lee
,
Sidra Rehman
,
Mr. Kalin I Tintchev
, and
Fang Yang
Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.
Keywords:
Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; climate change; natural disasters; conflict; food security; adaptation; resilience; climate finance; IMF staff climate note; financing climate adaptation; climate vulnerability; climate resilience overtime; climate adaptation policy; Climate policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Nations Become Fragile: An AI-Augmented Bird’s-Eye View (with a Case Study of South Sudan)
Tohid Atashbar
In this study we introduce and apply a set of machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques to analyze multi-dimensional fragility-related data. Our analysis of the fragility data collected by the OECD for its States of Fragility index showed that the use of such techniques could provide further insights into the non-linear relationships and diverse drivers of state fragility, highlighting the importance of a nuanced and context-specific approach to understanding and addressing this multi-aspect issue. We also applied the methodology used in this paper to South Sudan, one of the most fragile countries in the world to analyze the dynamics behind the different aspects of fragility over time. The results could be used to improve the Fund’s country engagement strategy (CES) and efforts at the country.
Keywords:
Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; Fragility Trap; Fragility Syndrome; Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence; AI technique; fragility data; Bird's-Eye View; artificial intelligence technique; aggregate fragility; Artificial intelligence and machine learning; Global; Middle East; North Africa; South Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Poverty Reduction Strategy and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. Taking into account the general low level of income and the high incidence of poverty, many citizens of the Republic of Moldova look at cultural opportunities and personal development according to the residual principle. The resources allocated by households to crop-related activities are very small. Cultural infrastructure is in an advanced state of physical degradation, which poses a real problem of accessibility of cultural products. The general and specific development goals which the SND suggests for the perspective of 2030 reflect the aspirations of increasing the welfare of the people of the Republic of Moldova, improving the lives of citizens, Europeanization of state institutions, strengthening democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights, as well as bringing the Republic of Moldova closer to European standards and values, which will ensure the process of accession of our country to the European Union. In the medium to long term, sustainable income growth can be achieved by increasing the competitiveness of firms, raising labor productivity and integrating marginalized people and groups into the processes of economic value creation.
Keywords:
growth strategy; development partner; copyright page; publication service; justice system; Aging; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach
Chris Redl
and
Sandile Hlatshwayo
We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. The prediction model correctly forecasts unrest in the following year approximately two-thirds of the time. Shapley values indicate that the key drivers of the predictions include high levels of unrest, food price inflation and mobile phone penetration, which accord with previous findings in the literature.
Keywords:
Social unrest; machine learning.; machine learning model; risk index; prediction model; machine learning approach; IMF working; Machine learning; Inflation; Food prices; Global; unrest event
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis
We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model sheds light on the dynamics behind many phenomena documented in the literature, including (i) the existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or “scarring” effects of wars and (iv) mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather.
Keywords:
Mortality; In-utero shocks; Selection; Scarring; WP; health stock; health distribution; investment schedule; log mortality rates; health shock
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Economic Development Documents-National Development Plan, 2019-23
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Government of Sierra Leone’s new Medium-term National Development Plan (MTNDP) 2019–2023 has been founded on a strong political commitment to deliver devel-opment results that would improve the welfare of Sierra Leone’s citizens. The plan charts a clear path towards 2023 en route to the goal of achieving middle-income status by 2039 through inclusive growth that is sustainable and leaves no one behind. For the next five years, the Free Quality School Education Programme is the government’s flagship programme to provide a solid base to enhance human capital development and to facilitate the transformation of the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector; value chain; civil society; management system; public expenditure; local government; business plan; development partner; Infrastructure; Global; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
This paper reviews the significant macro-fiscal challenges posed by climate change in Djibouti and the costs of mitigation and adaptation policies. The paper concludes that Djibouti is susceptible to climate change and related costs are potentially large. Investing now in adaptation and mitigation has large benefits in terms of reducing the related costs in the future. Reforms to generate the fiscal space are therefore needed and investment for mitigation and adaptation to climate change should be built into the long-term fiscal projections. Finally, concerted international efforts and stepping up regional cooperation could help moderate climate-related macro-fiscal risks.
Keywords:
WP; Djibouti; cost; GDP; government; climate change; inclusive growth; climate warming; mitigation effort; climate change mitigation; World Bank climate change knowledge portal; visions Djibouti; climate adaptation investment; production capacity; climate change challenge; Natural disasters; Climate finance; Fiscal space; Renewable energy; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of environment and climate change on Vietnam’s economic growth. Vietnam’s economy and population are expected to be increasingly affected by climate change. In addition, the country’s growth model—which permitted quick reduction of poverty—has been unsustainably relying on mining and natural resources. The level of air, land and water pollution has also increased in the country. Well aware of the critical challenges faced by the country, the government has undertaken numerous initiatives and programs to adapt the economy to climate change risks and transform the growth model to support an environmental-friendly economy, but significant challenges remain.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Vietnam; climate change financing; credit misallocation; A. climate change; IMF staff calculation; climate change risk; Nonperforming loans; Credit; Climate change; Aging; Europe; Mekong; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Southeast Asia