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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet
Ezequiel Cabezon
and
Christian Henn
Based on a permanent income analysis, Gagnon (2018) has prominently suggested that Norway has saved too much, thereby free-riding on the rest of the world for demand. Our public sector balance sheet analysis comes to the opposite conclusion, chiefly because it also accounts for future aging costs. Unsurprisingly, we find that Norway’s current assets exceed its liabilities by some 340 percent of mainland GDP. But its nonoil fiscal deficits have grown very large (to almost 8 percent of mainland GDP) and aging pressures are only commencing. Therefore, Norway’s intertemporal financial net worth (IFNW) is negative, at about -240 percent of mainland GDP. As IFNW represents an intertemporal budget constraint, this implies that Norway’s savings are likely insufficient to address aging costs without additional fiscal action.
Keywords:
WP; mainland GDP; oil price; GPFG asset; asset price; asset stock; Public Sector Balance Sheet; Intertemporal Fiscal Balances; Debt Sustainability; Norway; statistics Norway; Norwegian krone; Norway's intertemporal financial net worth; Intertemporal public sector balance sheet; Norway's assets; Norway's IFNW; nonfinancial assets; GPFG consist; price development; Financial statements; Oil prices; Asset prices; Aging; Global
Cover IEO Evaluation Report
IEO Evaluation Report
The IMF and Social Protection
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This paper analyzes that the IMF has moved beyond its traditional fiscal-centric approach to recognize that social protection can also be macro-critical for broader reasons including social and political stability concerns. Evaluating the IMF’s involvement in social protection is complicated by the fact that there is no standard definition of social protection or of broader/overlapping terms such as social spending and social safeguards in (or outside) the IMF. In this evaluation, social protection is understood to include policies that provide benefits to vulnerable individuals or households. This evaluation found widespread IMF involvement in social protection across countries although the extent of engagement varied. In some cases, engagement was relatively deep, spanning different activities (bilateral surveillance, technical assistance, and/or programs) and involving detailed analysis of distributional impacts, discussion of policy options, active advocacy of social protection, and integration of social protection measures in program design and/or conditionality. This cross-country variation to some degree reflected an appropriate response to country-specific factors, in particular an assessment of whether social protection policy was macrocritical, and the availability of expertise from development partners or in the country itself.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; protection; staff; evaluation; policy; country; IMF staff; social protection; core area; IMF-ILO stocktaking; protection policy; IMF's mandate; Social assistance spending; Social protection spending; Pension reform; Energy subsidies; Global; Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Korea’s Challenges Ahead—Lessons from Japan’s Experience
Ms. Edda Zoli
This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea’s demographic trends seem to track Japan’s with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea’s corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan’s in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan’s initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.
Keywords:
WP; Japan; price; core inflation; productivity; aging; potential growth; inflation; balance sheets; Korea's inflation process; challenges ahead-lesson; stock market price; inflation expectation; output-inflation relationship; inflation model; Korea's aging; Japan's experience; regulatory burden; Japan's inflation; globalization indicators coefficient; inflation rate; Financial statements; Oil prices; Deflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: Staff Report for 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Outlook and risks. As Singapore prepares to celebrate its 50th anniversary in August, its economy continues to perform well. Despite the slow pace of the global recovery and a gradual decline in domestic credit growth and housing prices, projected economic growth of about 2.9 percent in 2015 is consistent with full employment and price stability. Growth is projected to slow down in the medium term, consistent with reduced reliance on foreign workers and rapid population aging. The authorities’ new growth model takes into account Singapore’s physical resource limits and aims to boost labor and land productivity. Risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside: Singapore’s highly open economy is exposed to external shocks, most notably slower global growth and the side effects from volatility in global financial markets. Domestic vulnerabilities, including elevated private indebtedness, can amplify the impact of external shocks. Policies. In January, in response to a decline in expected inflation and a more uncertain outlook for growth, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reduced the pace of appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) band. The more benign near?to medium-term inflation outlook warrants the relative easing of monetary policy. The monetary policy framework is robust and flexible but rising domestic leverage and heightened global interest rate and exchange rate volatility warrant heightened vigilance in assessing the balance of forces between the various channels of monetary policy. Singapore continues to maintain high regulatory and supervisory standards. Recent macroprudential measures have contributed to smoothing the cycle for credit and house prices. The budget’s focus on boosting productivity, equality of opportunity, and inclusiveness is laudable, while the fiscal impulse is opportune given cyclical conditions. Restructuring and population aging. Building on Singapore’s success and faced with high income inequality and the physical limits of a city state, the authorities have re-engineered the country’s growth model to boost productivity while reducing reliance on foreign workers. The restructuring entails lower steady state growth and a shift in the functional distribution of income toward labor. Incentives provided for firms to increase productivity-enhancing investments and for Singaporeans to upgrade their skills should help ensure a successful transition. But slower potential growth and a lower share of profits in income could affect those investments, and gains in productivity could be realized only slowly. Flexibility in the application of foreign worker policies and continued review of incentives are warranted. The authorities are recalibrating fiscal policies with associated inter?and intra- generational impacts in order to proactively deal with Singapore’s rapid population aging, enhance inclusiveness and reduce inequality, while remaining true to the principles of individual responsibility and sound public finances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; market; core inflation; Singapore dollar; economy; credit growth; Singapore-dollar proceeds; Core CPI inflation; CPF member; growth model; Inflation; Oil prices; Income; Exchange rates; Aging; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover Perspectives économiques régionales, avril 2015
Perspectives économiques régionales, avril 2015
Afrique subsaharienne
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

La chute des cours du pétrole et d'autres produits de base a nui à l'Afrique subsaharienne. La région devrait toutefois connaître une année supplémentaire de bons résultats économiques. La croissance devrait toutefois rester atone en Afrique du Sud, tandis qu'en Guinée, au Libéria et en Sierra Leone, l'épidémie d'Ebola continue d'avoir de lourdes conséquences économiques et sociales. Ce rapport examine également le profit que l'Afrique subsaharienne pourrait tirer du dividende démographique causé par une hausse sans précédent de la population en âge de travailler et étudie le niveau d'intégration de la région dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales.

Keywords:
REO; background color; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa
Navigating Headwinds
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The sharp decline in oil and other commodity prices have adversely impacted sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the region is projected to register another year of solid economic performance. In South Africa, however, growth is expected to remain lackluster, while in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone the Ebola outbreak continues to exact a heavy economic and social toll. This report also considers how sub-Saharan Africa can harness the demographic dividend from an unprecedented increase in the working age population, as well as the strength of the region's integration into global value chains.

Keywords:
REO; background color; Sub-Saharan Africa; fragile country; oil exporter; MDRI country; Zimbabwe dollar; oil price; age population; Aging; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Global value chains; Africa; Global; East Asia; Southern Africa; dividend sub-Saharan Africa; demographic transition; trade openness; exports consist; medium-fertility scenario; Labor force participation; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States
Mark Agerton
,
Peter Hartley
,
Kenneth Medlock III
, and
Ted Temzelides
Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.
Keywords:
WP; job creation; Employment; employment impact; employment growth; state employment; boom state; employment response; employment multiplier; employment consequence; employment activity; Oil prices; Oil; Agroindustries; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Burkina Faso: Policies to Protect the Poor From the Impact of Food and Energy Price Increases
Ms. Isabell Adenauer
and
Mr. Javier Arze del Granado
This paper assesses the effectiveness of policies taken by the Burkinabè authorities to protect the poor from the adverse impact of a combined food and oil price shock in 2008. Estimates of the impact based on household survey data and a price pass-through model suggest that these policies were not well-targeted, benefiting the wealthier groups of the population rather than the poor. More effective policy measures, such as a conditional cash transfer system, which is already being implemented on a pilot basis in urban areas, are discussed as an alternative policy option.
Keywords:
WP; price; food; loss; price increase; benefit; cash; Burkina Faso; fuel price subsidies; food price shock; conditional cash transfer system; food price; price shock; energy price; price effect; price change; price impact; Inflation; Food prices; Consumption; Energy prices; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 4
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In this issue, John T. Cuddington and Daniel Jerrett from the Colorado School of Mines examine whether metals prices are in a "super cycle" upswing driven by intensive economic growth in China, in particular. Using evidence from U.S. Social Security records, James E. Duggan, Robert Gillingham, and John S. Greenlees look at the empirical relationship between mortality and lifetime income. Pär Österholm and Jeromin Zettelmeyer analyze the effect of external conditions on growth in Latin America, while Junko Koeda presents a debt overhang model for low-income countries. The issue also includes a comprehensive index for Volume 55 (2008) by author, subject, and title.
Keywords:
SP; SBA; global economy model; commodity price; oil price movement; lifetime earnings; iteration method; oil price; price series; Wages; Income; Metal prices; Aging; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway
Mr. Daniel Leigh
and
Mr. Etibar Jafarov
This paper considers long-term fiscal policy options in Norway, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, in light of the substantial expected increase in pension outlays. It compares the current fiscal rule, which targets a (central government structural) non-oil deficit equal to 4 percent of Government Pension Fund assets, with three alternatives that save a larger share of oil revenue and accumulate more assets to pay for aging costs. It also analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of accumulating more assets, finding that the additional income generated from more assets allows lower tax rates, with positive effects on long-term output.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; GPF assets; budget