Social Science > Demography

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Alexander Pitt
Malta’s rapid growth over the past two decades has gone hand in hand with a significant expansion of the population. This has created bottlenecks in infrastructure, which will need to be addressed. While capacity in energy and water supply is currently adequate, investments in wastewater treatment and solid waste disposal are needed, as well as measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In transport, need for action to ease congestion is urgent, while the costs for a sustainable solution are high and implementation would take time.
Mark Agerton
,
Peter Hartley
,
Kenneth Medlock III
, and
Ted Temzelides
Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
,
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
, and
Mr. Gene L. Leon
Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007-08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960-2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. We use a smooth transition model to investigate the speed at which inflation beyond a threshold becomes harmful to growth, an important consideration in the policy response to rising inflation as the world economy recovers. We estimate that for all country groups (except for advanced countries) inflation above a threshold of about 10 percent quickly becomes harmful to growth, suggesting the need for a prompt policy response to inflation at or above the relevant threshold. For the advanced economies, the threshold is much lower. For oil exporting countries, the estimates are less robust, possibly reflecting heterogeneity among oil producers, but the effect of higher inflation for oil producers is found to be stronger.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Mr. Daniel Leigh
and
Mr. Etibar Jafarov
This paper considers long-term fiscal policy options in Norway, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, in light of the substantial expected increase in pension outlays. It compares the current fiscal rule, which targets a (central government structural) non-oil deficit equal to 4 percent of Government Pension Fund assets, with three alternatives that save a larger share of oil revenue and accumulate more assets to pay for aging costs. It also analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of accumulating more assets, finding that the additional income generated from more assets allows lower tax rates, with positive effects on long-term output.
International Monetary Fund
The Joint Staff Advisory Note focuses on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. It highlights that the authorities are presenting Timor-Leste’s National Development Plan 2002 (NDP) and associated implementation documents to the Boards to indicate the progress achieved by the country during the past three years. The note outlines key elements in NDP design and implementation, and identifies key challenges faced in NDP implementation. It also provides suggestions for both strengthening the strategy and addressing implementation risks.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper examines the impact of the World Bank on the financial markets and developing countries. The sound financial structure of the Bank rests on its conservative loan-to-capital ratio. Its large liquidity is an assurance to investors in Bank bonds that their investments are assured of liquidity in case the need arises. To cope with their payments difficulties, the heavily indebted developing countries have adopted more cautious fiscal and monetary policies, limited wage increases, and reduced domestic consumption and investment.