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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Aid and Growth at the Regional Level
Axel Dreher
and
Steffen Lohmann
This paper brings the aid effectiveness debate to the sub-national level. We hypothesize the nonrobust results regarding the effects of aid on development in the previous literature to arise due to the effects of aid being insufficiently large to measurably affect aggregate outcomes. Using geocoded data for World Bank aid to a maximum of 2,221 first-level administrative regions (ADM1) and 54,167 second-level administrative regions (ADM2) in 130 countries over the 2000-2011 period, we test whether aid affects development, measured as nighttime light growth. Our preferred identification strategy exploits variation arising from interacting a variable that indicates whether or not a country has passed the threshold for receiving IDA's concessional aid with a recipient region's probability to receive aid, in a sample of 478 ADM1 regions and almost 8,400 ADM2 regions from 21 countries. Controlling for the levels of the interacted variables, the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Overall, we find significant correlations between aid and growth in ADM2 regions, but no causal effects.
Keywords:
WP; effect of aid; IDA-threshold effect; level of significance; term growth-effect; Aid Effectiveness; Geo-coding; World Bank; rainfall growth; aid-growth regression; growth OLS; IDA threshold; Agroindustries; Personal income; Population growth; Africa; Central Asia; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States
Mark Agerton
,
Peter Hartley
,
Kenneth Medlock III
, and
Ted Temzelides
Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.
Keywords:
WP; job creation; Employment; employment impact; employment growth; state employment; boom state; employment response; employment multiplier; employment consequence; employment activity; Oil prices; Oil; Agroindustries; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Third Annual Progress Report
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Third Annual Progress Report (APR) on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Guinea. The PRS implemented by the government since 2002 has the overall objective of reducing poverty significantly and sustainably, by increasing incomes and improving the well-being of the population, and particularly of its poorest segments. The APR reveals that in social sectors, and particularly in health, village hydraulics, and education, indicators have improved despite financial constraints. The gross enrollment rate rose from 77 percent to 79 percent at the national level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; firm; inflation rate; resource allocation; divestiture program; primary sector; government contribution; government disengagement; tertiary sector; public utility; government divestiture; government's divestiture program; telephone service; Agroindustries; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinée: Document de stratégie pour la réduction de la pauvreté : troisième rapport annuel d'étape
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; firm; inflation rate; resource allocation
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Big Are the Benefits of Economic Diversification? Evidence from Earthquakes
Mr. Rodney Ramcharan
Economic activity is risky. Returns across economic sectors can be highly variable, potentially causing costly adjustments to consumption. However, when returns are imperfectly correlated across sectors and insurance is unavailable, diversification can reduce the economic impact of shocks. Therefore, despite the well-known efficiency benefits from specialization, the risks of too little diversification have long been acknowledged. But how big are the benefits of diversification? This paper exploits the exogeneity and randomness of earthquakes to address this question. There is robust evidence that more specialized economies experience larger declines in consumption when earthquakes occur, and consistent with the insurance channel, the cost of specialization is smaller in more financially developed economies.
Keywords:
WP; per capita income; coefficient of variation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth: A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation
Robert M. Townsend
and
Mr. Kenichi Ueda
We propose a coherent unified approach to the study of the linkages among economic growth, financial structure, and inequality, bringing together disparate theoretical and empirical literature. That is, we show how to conduct model-based quantitative research on transitional paths. With analytical and numerical methods, we calibrate and make tractable a prototype canonical model and take it to an application, namely, Thailand 1976-1996, an emerging economy in a phase of economic expansion with uneven financial deepening and increasing inequality. We broadly replicate the actual data, test the model formally, and identify anomalies.
Keywords:
WP; growth rate; financial system; Financial deepening; inequality; growth; transitional dynamics; saving rate; value function; Thai baht; benchmark economy; parameter value; portfolio choice; population shift; Income inequality; Income distribution; Personal income; Agroindustries; Asia and Pacific