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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
Sidra Rehman
and
Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Keywords:
conflict; temperature; precipitation; climate change; weather shock; conflict intensity; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; precipitation shock; Natural disasters; Food security; East Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Assess Spending Needs of the Sustainable Development Goals: The Third Edition of the IMF SDG Costing Tool
Piergiorgio M Carapella
,
Ms. Tewodaj Mogues
,
Julieth C Pico-Mejia
, and
Mauricio Soto
This note provides a technical overview and description of the 3rd edition of the IMF SDG costing tool that estimates the additional spending needs to achieve a strong performance in selected SDGs for human capital development (health and education) and physical capital development (infrastructure), in particular, water and sanitation, electricity, and roads. The 3rd edition includes data and methodological updates to, but generally remains faithful to the original approach described in, Gaspar et al. (2019). Globally, additional spending needed to achieve a strong performance in the selected SDGs in 2030 amounts to US$3.0 trillion (3.4 percent of 2030 world GDP). Estimated at 16.1 percent of 2030 LIDC GDP, the average additional SDG cost of this income group is significantly higher than in EMEs, who face additional spending amounting to 4.8 percentage points of their GDP in 2030. In contrast to EMEs and LIDCs, the additional cost for AEs is low, under 0.2 percent of their 2030 GDP.
Keywords:
SDGs; Sustainable Development Goals; expenditure; spending needs; cost; health; education; water; sanitation; electricity; roads; SDG spending; edition SDG; desk estimate; costing tool; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Health care spending; Infrastructure; Global; Caribbean; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband
Edward Oughton
,
Mr. David Amaglobeli
, and
Mr. Mariano Moszoro
We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.
Keywords:
Broadband; Digital Infrastructure; Public Investment; Sustainable Development Goals; cost decrease; investment requirement; infrastructure investment; cost sensitivity; data consumption; policy assessment; estimation metrics; cost driver; data traffic; infrastructure cost modeling; Digitalization; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Caribbean; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Boileau Loko
,
Nelie Nembot
, and
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.
Keywords:
Private Savings; Sub-Saharan Africa; COVID-19; Economic Growth; savings determinants in SSA; pandemic impact; preventive measure; SSA economy; robustness check; Income; Estimation techniques; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Spending Challenge of Achieving the SDGs in South Asia: Lessons from India
Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
,
Ms. Tewodaj Mogues
,
Marian Moszoro
, and
Mauricio Soto
South Asia has experienced significant progress in improving human and physical capital over the past few decades. Within the region, India has become a global economic powerhouse with enormous development potential ahead. To foster human and economic development, India has shown a strong commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda. This paper focuses on the medium-term development challenges that South Asia, and in particular India, faces to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030. We estimate the additional spending needed in critical areas of human capital (health and education) and physical capital (water and sanitation, electricity, and roads). We document progress on these five sectors for India relative to other South Asian countries and discuss implications for policy and reform.
Keywords:
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); Human Capital; Infrastructure; India; spending estimation; health outcome; spending challenge; physical capital; SDG sector; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Electricity; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pakistan: Spending Needs for Reaching Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Fernanda Brollo
,
Emine Hanedar
, and
Mr. Sébastien Walker
This paper assesses the additional spending required to make substantial progress towards achieving the SDGs in Pakistan. We focus on critical areas of human (education and health) and physical (electricity, roads, and water and sanitation) capital. For each sector, we document the progress to date, assess where Pakistan stands relative to its peers, highlight key challenges, and estimate the additional spending required to make substantial progress. The estimates for the additional spending are derived using the IMF SDG costing methodology. We find that to achieve the SDGs in these sectors would require additional annual spending of about 16 percent of GDP in 2030 from the public and private sectors combined.
Keywords:
Sustainable Development Goals; Pakistan; Costing SDGs; electricity generation; additional spending; IMF SDG; sector-international comparison; teacher wage bill; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict
Natalija Novta
and
Evgenia Pugacheva
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.
Keywords:
WP; number; conflict onset; battle; refugee; log GDP; refugee flow; conflict country; GDP decline; refugee status; number of refugee; country well; refugee dynamics; country size; conflict GDP; country population; asylum country; Public expenditure review; Consumption; GDP forecasting; Private consumption; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; conflict; war; growth; trade; migration; destination country population; IMF country expert
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Is the Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?: Issues in Managing Water Challenges and Policy Instruments
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat
,
Mr. Andrew J Swiston
,
Mr. Robert Tchaidze
,
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
,
Valentina Flamini
,
Ms. Laure Redifer
, and
Mr. Harald Finger
This paper examines water challenges, a growing global concern with adverse economic and social consequences, and discusses economic policy instruments. Water subsidies provided through public utilities are estimated at about $456 billion or 0.6 percent of global GDP in 2012. The paper suggests that getting economic incentives right, notably by reforming water pricing, can go a long way towards encouraging more efficient water use and supporting needed investment, while enabling policies that protect the poor. It also discusses pricing reform options and emphasizes an integrated and holistic approach to manage water, going beyond the water sector itself. The IMF can play a helpful role in ensuring that macroeconomic policies are conducive to sound water management.
Keywords:
SDN; water use; water resource; country water price subsidy; cost recovery; demand management; natural resource; water withdrawal; Water; subsidies; externalities; public utilities; pricing reform; Water resources; Infrastructure; Agricultural sector; Water subsidies; Global; South Asia; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Pakistan: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
The distribution of poor population in Pakistan suggests that almost 75 percent of the poor are clustered around the poverty line. The economy moved to a higher growth trajectory in the vicinity of 6–7 percent real GDP growth during FY 2002–07, and resultantly the poverty declined substantially in FY 2004/05. The productive capacity of the economy remained alien to this higher growth and new industrial capacity was hardly added to the economy. The fiscal year 2007/08 was a volatile year for Pakistan’s economy both on domestic and external fronts.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial year; private sector; base year; fiscal year; federal government; banking sector; Global; South Asia; Central Asia; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
Although Afghanistan has made significant gains over the years, vulnerabilities remain. The economic program Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) has been developed to sustain democracy, reduce poverty, and improve growth. ANDS, an important milestone in the rebuilding and development of Afghanistan, serves as its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and uses the pillars, principles, and benchmarks of the Afghanistan Compact as a foundation to achieve its MDGs. It has given high priority to the security sector for implementing security policies and strategies and also for building an Afghan National Army for the country's security.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector; international community; development priority; aid effectiveness strategy; natural resources; economic growth; civil society; South Asia; Central Asia; Middle East