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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Environment and Growth x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Disasters and Scarring Effects
Weicheng Lian
,
Jose Ramon Moran
, and
Raadhika Vishvesh
This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore medium-term scarring of natural disasters for countries vulnerable to climate change. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfacutal trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.
Keywords:
Natural disasters; scarring effects; synthetic control approach; IMF working papers; scarring effect; ante resilience; medium-term scarring; output effect; Tourism; Climate change; Caribbean; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness
Dongyeol Lee
,
Huan Zhang
, and
Chau Nguyen
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
Keywords:
WP; GDP growth; percentile rank; balance-to-GDP ratio; estimation result; Natural Disaster; Growth; Fiscal Balance; International Trade; Debt Sustainability; coefficient estimate; disaster year; mass movement; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Trade balance; Debt sustainability analysis; Pacific Islands