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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 84 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Transforming the Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea
Soo Jung Chang
,
Hamin Lee
,
Sumin Lee
,
Samil Oh
,
Zexi Sun
, and
Xin Cindy Xu
This paper examines the economic impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Korea. Korea is among the global frontrunners in AI adoption, with higher adoption rates among larger, younger, and technologically advanced firms. AI holds the promise for boosting productivity and output, though the effects are more pronounced among larger and mature Korean firms. About half of jobs are exposed to AI, with higher exposures among female, younger, more educated, and higher income workers. Korea’s strong innovation and digital infrastructure highlights its AI readiness, while enhancing labor market flexibility and social safety nets are essential to fully harness AI’s potential.
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; AI; labor market; productivity; growth; E. AI preparedness; profitability regression; preparedness index; AI adoption; B. AI adoption; Aging; Labor market policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?
Serhan Cevik
The rise of financial technologies—fintech—could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others? In this paper, I use a comprehensive dataset to investigate the emergence and spread of fintech in a diverse panel of 98 countries over the period 2012–2020. This empirical analysis helps ascertain economic, demographic, technological and institutional factors that enable the development of fintech. The magnitude and statistical significance of these factors vary according to the type of fintech instrument and the level of economic development (advanced economies vs. developing countries). Finally, these findings reveal that policies and structural reforms can help promote financial innovation and cultivate fintech ventures—particularly by strengthening technological and institutional infrastructures and reducing cybersecurity threats.
Keywords:
Fintech; financial innovation; technological change; cybersecurity threat; fintech venture; copyright page; government stability foster fintech growth; fintech transaction; Digital financial services; Financial sector development; Population growth; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market downturn, both locally and in Mainland China. The territory’s integration with Mainland China, including in the context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative, has significantly increased in recent years, but rising regional competition has put pressure on some of its traditional growth engines, prompting the authorities to pursue new sources of growth, including from innovative, technology-driven sectors.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Benin: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts on Benin’s ongoing economic transformation, and analyzes the country’s new eco-system. A recent IMF paper explores conditions under which the country’s industrial policy could meet its intended goals while avoiding unintended economic distortions down the road. While economic diversification is found to be associated with higher economic growth, evidence on the causal impact of industrial policies is hard to establish. While empirical evidence suggests that Benin’s reliance on traditional sectors, notably the Port of Cotonou, is moderating, economic diversification remains limited. The government embarked on industrial policy with the transformation of local commodities as main engine, including via the launching of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in 2020. It is recommending that the authorities should pursue efforts to ensure transparency in the selection of SEZ-related incentives. Intra-regional trade integration holds significant potential for Benin and could support economic diversification. Ongoing post-electoral policy shifts in Nigeria and formalization underway of economic ties between both nations, if permanent, would curb rent-seeking in Benin.
Keywords:
demographics dividend; B. addressing Internet accessibility; infrastructure investment; Beninese government; completion rate; Digitalization; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Sierra Leone’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. The Government of Sierra Leone (GoSL) has launched a new Medium-Term National Development Plan (MTNDP). Crucial lessons have been learned in the implementation of the previous plan 2019-2023 that are important for the current acceleration and transformative plan to deliver a resilient and robust economy for Sierra Leone by 2030. Accordingly, five national goals for 2030 have been identified to accelerate efforts toward achieving the country’s vision of becoming an inclusive and green middle-income country by 2039. One of the goals is to create 500,000 jobs for the youth (with at least a 30% representation of women), including skilled and unskilled, long term, as well as seasonal jobs across all sectors by 2030 (directly related to Big 5.3). While the agriculture industry experienced modest growth, its reliance on the domestic market has impeded the ability to expand agricultural exports.
Keywords:
government ministry; Medium-Term National Development Plan; government of Sierra Leone; Sierra Leone economy; Development secretary Mr. Peter Sam-Kpakra; Public sector; Global; Africa; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment
Andinet Woldemichael
and
Iyke Maduako
Housing represents the largest asset and liability, in the form of mortgages, on most national balance sheet. For most households it is their largest investment, and when mortgages are required also represents the largest component of household debt. It is also directly tied to financial markets, both the mortgage market and insurance sector. Although many countries have a rich set of housing censuses and statistics, others have large data gap in this area and therefore struggle to formulate effective policies. This paper proposes an approach to construct a global census of residential buildings using opensource satellite data. Such a layer can be used to assess the extent these buildings are exposed to climate hazards and how their production and consumption, in turn, affect the climate. The approach we propose could be scaled globally, combining existing layers of building footprints, climate and socioeconomic data. It adds to the ongoing effort of compiling spatially explicit and granular climate indicators to better inform policies. As a case study, we compute selected indicators and estimate the extent of residential properties exposure to riverine flood risk for Kenya.
Keywords:
Census of buildings; Climate Exposure; Building Footprint; flood risk; property indicator; aggregate dwellings Capital Stock value; descriptive statistics of the data; flood hazard map; return period; Housing; Climate change; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
Yueling Huang
This paper empirically investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment. Exploiting variation in AI adoption across US commuting zones using a shift-share approach, I find that during 2010-2021, commuting zones with higher AI adoption have experienced a stronger decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Moreover, this negative employment effect is primarily borne by the manufacturing and lowskill services sectors, middle-skill workers, non-STEM occupations, and individuals at the two ends of the age distribution. The adverse impact is also more pronounced on men than women.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; technology; labor; local labor markets; shift share; middle-skill worker; labor market impact; impact of artificial intelligence; employment effect; low-skill services sectors; Employment; Employment rate; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vanuatu: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses sea-level rise impacts and adaptation in Vanuatu. Sea-level will continue to increase during this century directly caused by global warming and melting of terrestrial ice. While Vanuatu cannot control global sea-level, it can manage how it affects the country by adapting. Staff analysis estimates the cost of sea-level rise under alternative adaptation strategies: (1) no-adaptation; (2) protection; and (3) planned retreat. Such analysis can help the government to identify trade-offs between efficiency and equity, and choose according to the preferences of the population, consistent with public finance objectives. Preliminary results show that complete protection of coastal areas in Vanuatu is costly while planned retreat from the coastline is the least-cost adaptation response. However, given the mountainous nature of the islands, only small areas of the main population centers of Port Vila and Luganville are at risk of being permanently inundated even with very high sea level rise.
Keywords:
summary statistics; sea-level rise; surface temperature; adaptation in Vanuatu; Vanuatu with CIAM; Climate change; Environmental policy; Natural disasters; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Sustainable Path to Inclusive Growth in Japan: How to Tackle Income Inequality?
Purva Khera
and
Yun Gao
Market income inequality in Japan has been on a steady rise since the 1980s, and is now close to the OECD average. Gross and disposable income inequality, on the other hand, have risen much less but remain higher relative to several comparator countries. This paper employs inequality index decompositions by income source using household panel survey data from 2010-19 to identify the factors driving income inequality in Japan. Results indicate that while increase in the employment of females and the elderly in the last decade has helped lower income inequality, this has been offset by them being mostly employed in low-paid part-time nonregular jobs. Rapid aging of the population has also exacerbated income inequality over time. Moreover, while fiscal redistributive effects of social transfers are found to be a somewhat equalizing force, its impact on inequality is relatively weaker.
Keywords:
Inequality; labor market duality; wage gap; fiscal transfers; labor market dualism; household panel survey data; wage income; inequality index decomposition; Income inequality; Income; Income distribution; Aging; Capital income; Global