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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Benin: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts on Benin’s ongoing economic transformation, and analyzes the country’s new eco-system. A recent IMF paper explores conditions under which the country’s industrial policy could meet its intended goals while avoiding unintended economic distortions down the road. While economic diversification is found to be associated with higher economic growth, evidence on the causal impact of industrial policies is hard to establish. While empirical evidence suggests that Benin’s reliance on traditional sectors, notably the Port of Cotonou, is moderating, economic diversification remains limited. The government embarked on industrial policy with the transformation of local commodities as main engine, including via the launching of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in 2020. It is recommending that the authorities should pursue efforts to ensure transparency in the selection of SEZ-related incentives. Intra-regional trade integration holds significant potential for Benin and could support economic diversification. Ongoing post-electoral policy shifts in Nigeria and formalization underway of economic ties between both nations, if permanent, would curb rent-seeking in Benin.
Keywords:
demographics dividend; B. addressing Internet accessibility; infrastructure investment; Beninese government; completion rate; Digitalization; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
Sidra Rehman
and
Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Keywords:
conflict; temperature; precipitation; climate change; weather shock; conflict intensity; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; precipitation shock; Natural disasters; Food security; East Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cote d'Ivoire: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Côte d'Ivoire’s poverty reduction and growth strategy. The macroeconomic framework has been sound, with low inflation, a sustainable public sector, a robust banking system and a balanced external position. Poverty in Côte d'Ivoire has been steadily decreasing since 2016, continuing the trend observed since early 2011. Access to electricity has improved throughout the national territory. Actions have been undertaken to enhance the economy’s productivity through the strengthening of infrastructure and governance. In particular, Côte d’Ivoire is committed to advancing equality between men and women in all areas of public and private life, in order to empower women economically, socially, and politically and achieve a more egalitarian society. The government has undertaken to step up actions in favor of girls' education, increase access rates.
Keywords:
Ivorian government; government plan; Ivorian authority; government's Social Program; medium-term development strategy; social action; Climate change; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The world remains in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic and a seemingly accelerating pace of climate change, both of which underscore the need for increased global cooperation and dialogue. Solutions to these global problems must involve all countries and all regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with the world’s least vaccinated population, most promising renewable energy potential, and critical ecosystems. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020 and is much welcome, but still represents the slowest recovery relative to other regions. In particular, the economic outlook points to divergences at three levels: between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions, within sub-Saharan Africa, and within countries. These divergences reflect the region’s slower vaccines rollout, more limited fiscal space, and regional disparities in resilience. The outlook remains extremely uncertain, and risks are tilted to the downside. In particular, the recovery depends on the path of the global pandemic and the regional vaccination effort, food price inflation, and is also vulnerable to disruptions in global activity and financial markets. Looking ahead, sub-Saharan Africa’s potential remains undiminished. The region is at a critical juncture to implement bold transformative reforms to capitalize on this potential.

Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; regional outlook; vaccination; COVID-19; COVAX; monetary policy; public debt; tax revenues; climate change; headline inflation; food price inflation; IMF staff calculation; vaccination rate lag; food inflation; international community; countries in sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU member country; sub-Saharan Africa remain; distribution infrastructure; food inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa; exports to the EU; IMF export diversification index; Inflation; Climate change; Global; Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Electricity Consumption and Temperature: Evidence from Satellite Data
Jiaxiong Yao
Past studies on the relationship between electricity consumption and temperature have primarily focused on individual countries. Many regions are understudied as a result of data constraint. This paper studies the relationship on a global scale, overcoming the data constraint by using grid-level night light and temperature data. Mostly generated by electricity and recorded by satellites, night light has a strong linear relationship with electricity consumption and is correlated with both its extensive and intensive margins. Using night light as a proxy for electricity consumption at the grid level, we find: (1) there is a U-shaped relationship between electricity consumption and temperature; (2) the critical point of temperature for minimum electricity consumption is around 14.6°C for the world and it is higher in urban and more industrial areas; and (3) the impact of temperature on electricity consumption is persistent. Sub-Saharan African countries, while facing a large electricity deficit already, are particularly vulnerable to climate change: a 1°C increase in temperature is estimated to increase their electricity demand by 6.7% on average.
Keywords:
Electricity consumption; temperature; night light; climate change.; WP; electricity access; electricity demand; term E
Cover IMF Working Papers
Beyond the COVID-19 Crisis: A Framework for Sustainable Government-To-Person Mobile Money Transfers
Delphine Prady
,
Hervé Tourpe
,
Sonja Davidovic
, and
Soheib Nunhuck
During the 2020 pandemic, the majority of countries have provided income support to households at an unprecedented speed and scale. Social distancing measures and the large penetration of mobile phones in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) have encouraged government-to-person (G2P) transfers through mobile platforms. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for sustainable money solutions in support of social assistance. The framework consists of eight building blocks that may help policymakers i) take stock and assess emergency fixes taken to scale up mobile money in a crisis context and ii) develop sustainable long-term solutions for mobile G2P transfers.
Keywords:
WP; government; Novissi G2P; country; firm; government assistance program; money; G2P; mobile money; bank account; electronic money; cash transfer; low income; financial service; central bank; Mobile banking; Currencies; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia; Africa; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Philippines government; CICO network; State transfer; government ecosystem; government assistance; government cash transfer; total cost of ownership; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Technical Assistance Report-Additional Spending Toward Sustainable Development Goals
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of Nigeria in response to their request for technical assistance. Unlocking the potential of a rapidly growing population requires substantial improvements in human and physical capital. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy. Recognizing challenges, Nigeria has embraced the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Agenda. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017–2020 gives prominence to economic, social and environmental issues. This report assesses additional spending associated with making substantial progress along the SDGs. The report focuses on critical areas of human and physical capital. For each sector, the report documents progress to date, assesses Nigeria relative to peers, highlights challenges, and estimates the spending to make substantial SDG progress. Nigeria has shown gradual improvements in education. A gradual and strategic approach should be considered given the relatively large additional spending.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Nigeria; authority; IMF staff calculation; road density; insurance system; electricity consumption; Purchased Power Parity dollar; healthcare system; Public expenditure review; Health care spending; Africa; Global; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Questions générales
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Niger : questions générales
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Niger; food; fertility rate; CA approach
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the external stability of Niger. Niger’s real effective exchange rate has been depreciating recently, echoing fluctuations of the euro against the US dollar. A model-based analysis of Niger’s external sector suggests that the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with macroeconomic fundamentals, which is also consistent with the findings of the 2014 external sector assessment. However, broader competitiveness indicators are worrisome, despite some improvement noted in recent years. The recent depreciation of the naira also suggests some weakening in competitiveness, at least with Nigeria.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Niger; food; fertility rate; CA approach; stabilizing CA-norm; current account elasticity; CA norm; CA deficit; food inflation volatility; Natural disasters; Women; Population growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia; South Asia; Middle East; West Africa; Europe; Africa; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; East Africa
Cover Spillover Notes
Sub-Saharan African Migration: Patterns and Spillovers
Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia
,
Mr. Ermal Hitaj
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Arina Viseth
, and
Mustafa Yenice
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
Keywords:
SN; Sub-Saharan Africa; country; SSA migration; remittance; migration rate; emigration prospect; refugee migration; migration trend; SSA migrant; migration pattern; Migration; Remittances; Population growth; Demographic change; Europe; Africa; Middle East