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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 21 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Political Fragility: Coups d’État and Their Drivers
Aliona Cebotari
,
Enrique Chueca-Montuenga
,
Yoro Diallo
,
Yunsheng Ma
,
Rima A Turk
,
Weining Xin
, and
Harold Zavarce
The paper explores the drivers of political fragility by focusing on coups d’état as symptomatic of such fragility. It uses event studies to identify factors that exhibit significantly different dynamics in the runup to coups, and machine learning to identify these stressors and more structural determinants of fragility—as well as their nonlinear interactions—that create an environment propitious to coups. The paper finds that the destabilization of a country’s economic, political or security environment—such as low growth, high inflation, weak external positions, political instability and conflict—set the stage for a higher likelihood of coups, with overlapping stressors amplifying each other. These stressors are more likely to lead to breakdowns in political systems when demographic pressures and underlying structural weaknesses (especially poverty, exclusion, and weak governance) are present or when policies are weaker, through complex interactions. Conversely, strengthened fundamentals and macropolicies have higher returns in structurally fragile environments in terms of staving off political breakdowns, suggesting that continued engagement by multilateral institutions and donors in fragile situations is likely to yield particularly high dividends. The model performs well in predicting coups out of sample, having predicted a high probability of most 2020-23 coups, including in the Sahel region.
Keywords:
Fragility; Drivers of Fragility; Coup d’État; Machine Learning; coup dynamics; event study result; coup probability; probability of coup; IMF working paper 24/34; Fiscal stance; Income; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Caribbean
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Inclusion in Niger: Challenges and Opportunities: Niger
Yoro Diallo
,
Mr. Arsene Kaho
, and
Can Sever
Financial inclusion can increase economic growth and productivity and reduce poverty and inequality by helping people and firms—particularly SMEs—to save and invest, smooth consumption, and better manage financial risks. This paper highlights Niger’s lag compared to other WAEMU countries in terms of access to and use of formal financial services, including for women and youth, and underscores key demand and supply side challenges to financial inclusion as well as structural impediments. It lays out key priorities for Niger to harness the potential of greater financial inclusion to support the country’s development agenda, including efforts to tackle low financial literacy, promote digitization, and address informality.
Keywords:
Financial Inclusion; Financial Institutions; Niger; Niger's lag; development agenda; Niger banking sector; MFI sector NPL ratio; BCEAO MFI; IMF staff calculation; Digital financial services; Digital currencies; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare: Niger
Yoro Diallo
As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country’s development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas. This paper uses data from the latest household living standard survey to quantify the effects and interactions of these shocks on household welfare before proposing policy recommendations to enhance the resilience of households and the economy more generally. Our results show that when rainfall decreases by one standard deviation, per capita income falls by 11 percent. Furthermore, the impact of shocks on households depends on their adaptive capacity, which includes sufficient agricultural capital and income diversification. Without concrete adaptation measures, vulnerability to climate change is expected to increase in Niger, and human capital accumulation in poor household is also expected to deteriorate and could lead to a poverty trap.
Keywords:
Climate Shocks; Conflicts; Welfare; Microeconometrics; Niger; conflict shock; household welfare; vulnerability to climate change; impact of shock; income elasticity; Climate change; Income; Consumption
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Efficiency of Social Spending in Niger: Niger
Jean-Marc B. Atsebi
and
Mrs. Paola Ganum
Despite some progress, poverty remains elevated and education and health outcomes are lagging. This paper finds evidence of inefficiencies in education, health, and social protection spending in Niger. Programs are typically not well-targeted, some are regressive, and there are significant coverage gaps. Improving the living standards of the Nigerien as well as education and health systems, a priority of the government, would require not only scaling up social spending but also strenghtening social protection programs through better targeting, supporting girls’ education, and moving away from general subsidies. Moreover, social assistance should focus more on enhancing productivity and resilience to shocks.
Keywords:
Social Spending; Efficiency; Education; Health; Social Protection; Niger; health outcome; health system; copyright page; SPL program; Education spending; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Questions générales
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Niger : questions générales
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Niger; food; fertility rate; CA approach
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the external stability of Niger. Niger’s real effective exchange rate has been depreciating recently, echoing fluctuations of the euro against the US dollar. A model-based analysis of Niger’s external sector suggests that the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with macroeconomic fundamentals, which is also consistent with the findings of the 2014 external sector assessment. However, broader competitiveness indicators are worrisome, despite some improvement noted in recent years. The recent depreciation of the naira also suggests some weakening in competitiveness, at least with Nigeria.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Niger; food; fertility rate; CA approach; stabilizing CA-norm; current account elasticity; CA norm; CA deficit; food inflation volatility; Natural disasters; Women; Population growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia; South Asia; Middle East; West Africa; Europe; Africa; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali : Document de stratégie pour la réduction de la pauvreté — Rapport d’avancement
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; governance; committee; authority; minister of economy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Progress Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper reviews Mali’s 2012–2017 Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper. Mali’s GDP was CFAF 1,741.89 billion in 2012; real growth was ?1.2 percent, that is, excluding inflation (2.7 percent in 2011). The decline of 3.9 points in growth between 2011 and 2012 was finally stemmed, despite the major shocks that Mali had to face in 2012. The dual security and institutional shock had a negative impact on the entire economy, and more particularly on certain subsectors such as construction and public works, the hotel industry, and commerce. The GDP growth rate was ?1.2 percent in 2012, compared with 2.7 percent in 2011.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; governance; committee; authority; minister of economy; financial support; transition government; government document; international community; government reform; government of Mali; West Africa; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger : document de stratégie pour la réduction de la pauvreté
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; natural resources; gross domestic product; community development; private sector; economic situation; public policy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali : Document de stratégie pour la réduction de la pauvreté
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; public finance; PM; budget deficit; PAPU-2013-2014