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Social Science > Demography

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • North Macedonia, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Effect of IMF Structural Adjustment Programs on Expectations: The Case of Transition Economies
Patrick A. Imam
We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in contrast, have looked at indirect measures, such as capital flows or yield spreads, to assess the impact of IMF programs on economic expectations. Using a multinomial probit model, we find that IMF loans appear to have a strong effect on agent expectations in the early years, through the inflow of real money, and through the signaling effect. IMF programs during periods of collapsing growth appear to reinforce underlying expectations for the future; they are associated with positive expectations for those with an optimistic outlook and negative expectations for those with a negative outlook. Once recovery is underway, and economic uncertainty diminishes, it appears that IMF programs cease to have a statistically significant effect on the expectations of economic agents. This suggests that IMF programs have the biggest impact on expectations during periods of great uncertainty and less of an impact when countries are subject to minor shocks.
Keywords:
WP; IMF program; IMF dummy; IMF critic; IMF support
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2005
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Keywords:
IRB; growing evidence; MIT Poverty Action Lab; rent seeking; rent; IMF headquarters; Oxford development; Current account; Aging; Employment; Unemployment; Global; Europe; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central America; Central and Eastern Europe; East Africa
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
Social Protection in Transition Countries: Emerging Issues
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
and
Mr. Ke-young Chu
The paper discusses the social protection implications of the weakening financial and administrative capacity of countries undergoing economic transition. The formal sector is shrinking, and unemployment and underemployment are rising rapidly. This is affecting both the revenue base of social protection programs and the ability of these countries to target social benefits. These developments make it imperative for these countries to restructure social benefits, rely more on self-targeting mechanisms to deliver benefits, as well as take immediate steps to improve payroll tax compliance. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Keywords:
PDP; transition country; country; wage; government; wage bill; government cash benefit; wage fund; sector wage; retirement age; earnings history; Wages; Income; Payroll tax; Pension spending; Aging; Baltics; Eastern Europe