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Social Science > Demography

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover Policy Papers
A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending: Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This Supplement presents an account of the extensive consultations and the results of various analyses that supported the development of “A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending.”
Keywords:
PP; spending; staff report; staff; IMF staff calculation; spending issue; social spending; IMF program; Health care spending; Education spending; Personal income; Total expenditures; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness
Dongyeol Lee
,
Huan Zhang
, and
Chau Nguyen
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
Keywords:
WP; GDP growth; percentile rank; balance-to-GDP ratio; estimation result; Natural Disaster; Growth; Fiscal Balance; International Trade; Debt Sustainability; coefficient estimate; disaster year; mass movement; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Trade balance; Debt sustainability analysis; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?
Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
, and
Mr. Yiqun Wu
The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, exposure to shocks, and heavy reliance on aid. Higher fixed government costs, low access to credit by the private sector, and capacity constraints are also key challenges. The econometric analysis confirms that the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have underperformed relative to their peers over the last 20 years. Although these countries often face more limited policy tools, policies do matter and can further help build resilience and raise potential growth, as evidenced in the recent business cycle. The Asia and Pacific small states should continue rebuilding buffers and improve the composition of public spending in order to foster inclusive growth. Regional solutions should also continue to be pursued.
Keywords:
WP; IMF staff calculation; micro state; country authorities; real GDP; Asia and Pacific; small states; micro states; Pacific islands; growth; volatility; Asia-Pacific small state government; ECCU country; effective purchasing power; Pacific region; small states-Asia; country information; Income; Terms of trade; Government consumption; Climate change
Cover Policy Papers
Asia and Pacific Small States - Raising Potential Growth and Enhancing Resilience to Shocks
International Monetary Fund
The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards. These countries are particularly vulnerable because of their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, lack of economies of scale, limited access to international capital markets, exposure to shocks (including climate change), and heavy reliance on aid. In providing public services, they face higher fixed government costs relative to other states because public services must be provided regardless of their small population size. Low access to credit by the private sector is an impediment to inclusive growth. Capacity constraints are another key challenge. The small states also face more limited policy tools. Five out of 13 countries do not have a central bank and the scope for diversifying their economies is narrow. Given their large development needs, fiscal policies have been, at times, pro-cyclical. Within the Asia-Pacific small states group, the micro states are subject to more vulnerability and macroeconomic volatility than the rest of the Asia-Pacific small states.
Keywords:
PP; IMF staff calculation; Pacific small states; country authorities; real GDP; Pacific region; terms of trade; Asia-Pacific small state government; private sector; Income; Terms of trade; Inclusive growth; Asia and Pacific; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
Small Island States in the Pacific: the Tyranny of Distance
Mr. Chris Becker
This paper seeks to document key characteristics of small island states in the Pacific. It restricts itself to a limited number of indicators which are macro-orientated - population, fertility of land, ability to tap into economies of scale, income, and geographic isolation. It leaves aside equally important but more micro-orientated variables and development indicators. We show that small island states in the Pacific are different from countries in other regional groupings in that they are extremely isolated and have limited scope to tap economies of scale due to small populations. They often have little arable land. There is empirical evidence to suggest that these factors are related to income growth.
Keywords:
WP; arable land; gross national income; small state sample; small states; growth rate; microstate; economies of scale; geographic isolation; a number of small states; small states in the Pacific; Personal income; National income; Pacific Islands; Caribbean