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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Latvia, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes labor market challenges in Latvia. In the boom period leading up to the global financial crisis, the economy experienced widespread labor shortages and soaring wage growth. The bursting of the bubble led to a deep recession, high unemployment, and a sharp contraction in wages. With the economy now in its eighth year of recovery, Latvia is once again experiencing a tightening labor market—a situation exacerbated by unfavorable demographic trends. Latvia’s future prosperity will depend critically on whether it is able to address its labor market challenges. Employment protection legislation (EPL) is relatively restrictive. EPL refers to the procedures and costs associated with hiring and dismissing workers. Theory suggests that overly restrictive EPL reduces both job creation and job destruction and may slow productivity growth by raising labor adjustment costs for firms. Latvia’s tightening labor market calls for reforms that make the most of the country’s human resources. Reforms should aim to tackle barriers to employment, encourage more labor market participation, help Latvia’s citizens build new skills, and stem the decline in the working-age population.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; wage; Latvia; worker; minimum wage; wage growth; wage inequality; envelope wage; wage adjustment; wage setting; Aging; Wages; Labor markets; Western Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the extent of corruption in Ukraine compared with other countries. The level of corruption in Ukraine is exceptionally high. This could severely undermine economic growth prospects by hindering private investment. Reducing corruption is therefore essential to speed economic convergence with the rest of Europe. Regional comparisons help identify best practices in reducing corruption. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted key measures that follow some of these best practices. The country is, however, facing several challenges, including the concentration of political and economic power in a small group of people, which may hamper effective anticorruption efforts.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ukraine; NBU Council; pension; pension benefit; pension system; ICRG corruption index; law enforcement agency; corruption effort; Pension spending; Corruption; Aging; Retirement; Inflation targeting; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
,
Lone Engbo Christiansen
,
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Mr. Nadeem Ilahi
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Mr. Gil Mehrez
,
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Ms. Faezeh Raei
,
Ms. Alaina P Rhee
, and
Ms. Daria V Zakharova
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Keywords:
SDN; CESEE country; CESEE emigration; labor force; CESEE emigrant; migration flow; Emigration; remittances; growth; convergence; Eastern Europe; EU migration scenario; remittance inflow; Migration; Income; Labor force participation; Baltics; Western Europe; Europe; EU policy scenario; UN migration scenario; income convergence; impact of emigration; emigration from CESEE; Skilled labor
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes income convergence and medium-term growth potential for Estonia. Estonia’s potential growth is projected to average some 3 percent over the next five years and 2.75 percent over the next two decades, implying continued income convergence with European Union levels, albeit at only half its historical pace. A number of policy enhancements could lift growth above this central projection. These include a greater operational policy focus on raising productivity growth, scaling up a number of envisaged pro-growth programs, supporting the upgrading of traditional industries as a second leg of innovation policy, and fully restoring Estonia’s high investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; TFP growth; labor force; potential GDP; structural unemployment; capital stock; unemployment rate; Total factor productivity; Aging; Productivity; Western Europe; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; growth record; FDI inflow; R&D expenditure; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; qualification mismatch; Labor force participation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the prospects for Latvia continuing to rapidly reduce its distance from the productivity frontier. It looks at the empirical record of countries that have in the past attained a similar relative level of income to that of Latvia at present, to gauge the plausibility of the forecast for Latvia’s medium term GDP growth of about 4 percent per year. It highlights that more than one-third of the countries reaching a similar stage of development managed to sustain higher subsequent growth. The paper also confirms the importance of investment and structural reforms for Latvia’s future convergence, using a sector-level analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; employment ratio; growth decomposition; multifactor productivity convergence; employment growth; extent emigration; productivity frontier; Migration; Productivity; Labor productivity; Employment; Eastern Europe; Europe; Africa; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Spain: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes household savings ratio in Spain. The household savings ratio has fallen to its lowest historical rate in 2012, as households cut back savings to support consumption in response to negative income shocks. Household savings fell across all households, but the declines were likely more material among lower income and highly indebted groups. Declining household income and savings slowed deleveraging and put household balance sheets under pressure. Looking ahead, households may need to restrain consumption further to free resources for repaying debt. Household savings rates will likely stay below historical levels for some time then slowly increase.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; insolvency; saving; Spain; household saving; AIReF; insolvency regime; financial market spillover; AIReF staffing; AIReF president; Solvency; Disposable income; Pension spending; Fiscal law; Personal income; Global; Europe; North America; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances
Mrs. Delia Velculescu
Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be problematic, including in the case of Europe, where population aging is expected to pose additional fiscal costs not captured by such indicators. To better gauge the state of public finances in the EU27 countries, this paper derives forward-looking fiscal measures of intertemporal net worth both directly from the European Commission’s Aging Working Group’s long-run indicators and using a comprehensive public-sector balance sheet approach. These measures could be used as an "early warning" mechanism and also as a communication device with the public. Current estimates indicate that, on existing policies, the intertemporal net worth of the EU27 is deeply negative, even in excess of its GDP level, and is projected to worsen further over time. This suggests that Europe’s current policies need to be significantly strengthened to bring future liabilities in line with the EU governments’ capacity to generate assets.
Keywords:
WP; country; GDP; deficit
Cover Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union
Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union
Mr. Abdul d Abiad
,
Mr. Ashoka Mody
,
Ms. Susan M Schadler
, and
Mr. Daniel Leigh

Abstract

The central challenges facing the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia as they work to catch up to advanced European Union (EU) income levels are discussed in this new book. Focusing on the region’s growth performance, and outlining two growth scenarios that illustrate the range of investment and productivity growth rates under the income catchup objective, the authors draw upon extensive resources to identify strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords:
OP; CEECs; EU membership; current account deficit; FDI financing; investment rate; IMF surveillance; Personal income; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Current account deficits; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Baltics; East Asia; Global; Europe; Western Europe; Income
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovak Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix investigates the reasons for the large, recurrent external current account deficits in Slovakia, which are unusual by the current standards of other advanced transition economies. The paper examines the implications for external sustainability and reviews the causes of the widening in the external deficit from 2001. It discusses Slovakia’s competitiveness and estimates a range for the external current account deficit that could be sustainable in the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; liquidity constraint; current account deficit; Slovak firm; pension system; loss-making firm; Pension spending; Current account deficits; Pensions; Aging; Credit; Western Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Pension Reform in the Baltics
Pension Reform in the Baltics
Issues and Prospects
Mr. Jerald A Schiff
,
Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig
,
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
, and
Mr. Roman Zytek

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of efforts in the Baltic countries to reform their pension systems, and examines the choices facing these countries in their continued reform efforts. Early reforms were aimed at correcting the flaws of the inherited Soviet system and, in particular, at shoring up the finances of the pension systems and reducing their distortionary impact. The Baltic countries have been in the forefront of transition economies in their pursuit of pension reform. They have taken important steps to shore up the long-run financial health of their existing pension funds and made preparations for the implementation of a three-pillar scheme. Although a move toward a fully funded pension system can potentially make an important contribution to the objectives of pension reform, such a change is neither necessary nor sufficient to meet these goals. The existing PAYG pension system can, at least in theory, be made sustainable by an appropriate adjustment of payroll tax rates and expected lifetime pension benefits, although the average replacement rate implied by such changes may well be fairly low, reflecting the expected demographic developments.

Keywords:
OP; PAYG; pension; cost; saving; retirement age; transition cost; savings-investment balance; PAYG system; financing gap; lifetime pension benefits; Pension spending; Pensions; Pension reform; Aging; Retirement; Baltics