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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Lithuania, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?
Serhan Cevik
The rise of financial technologies—fintech—could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others? In this paper, I use a comprehensive dataset to investigate the emergence and spread of fintech in a diverse panel of 98 countries over the period 2012–2020. This empirical analysis helps ascertain economic, demographic, technological and institutional factors that enable the development of fintech. The magnitude and statistical significance of these factors vary according to the type of fintech instrument and the level of economic development (advanced economies vs. developing countries). Finally, these findings reveal that policies and structural reforms can help promote financial innovation and cultivate fintech ventures—particularly by strengthening technological and institutional infrastructures and reducing cybersecurity threats.
Keywords:
Fintech; financial innovation; technological change; cybersecurity threat; fintech venture; copyright page; government stability foster fintech growth; fintech transaction; Digital financial services; Financial sector development; Population growth; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Navigating Minefields and Headwinds: National Security, Demographic Shifts, Climate Change and Fiscal Policy in Lithuania
Serhan Cevik
Lithuania’s immediate fiscal challenges are national security and higher costs of borrowing, but fiscal prospects are further exacerbated by long-term pressures stemming from climate change and a shrinking and aging population. The country has experienced a rapidly decreasing population—from 3.7 million in 1991 to 2.8 million in 2023—and its old-age dependency ratio is consequently expected to increase from 33 percent in 2023 to 53.4 percent by 2050. The resulting long-term spending pressures are projected to amount to as much as 11.2 percent of GDP, which is about 30 percent of the current level of spending. Debt sustainability concerns would not allow financing additional spending with more debt. Hence, a comprehensive strategy will help address these long-term fiscal challenges, including tax policy changes to raise additional revenue while primarily reducing expenditure needs through pension and healthcare reforms.
Keywords:
Military spending; interest rates; climate change; demographics; pension; healthcare; tax policy; fiscal sustainability; Lithuania; debt sustainability concern; dependency ratio; headwinds national security; spending pressure; old-age dependency ratio; Aging; Pension spending; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Constraints, Productivity, and Investment: Evidence from Lithuania
Karim Foda
,
Ms. Yu Shi
, and
Maryam Vaziri
This paper studies the relation between firms' access to finance, labor productivity and investment using Lithuanian firm-level data from 2000–2018. To do so, we construct a measure of financial constraints. We estimate that, given firm characteristics, removing these constraints can improve average productivity and investment of firms in Lithuania by 0.51 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. Our results further suggest that policies targeting firm age and size together will be more effective in mitigating the impact of financial constraints as the relationship between firm age and size with financial constraints exhibits non-linearities.
Keywords:
Financial Constraints; Productivity; Investment; SMEs; Transition Economies; financing constraint; firm age; evidence from Lithuania; firm's age distribution; balance sheet information; Labor productivity; Aging; Financial statements; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
,
Lone Engbo Christiansen
,
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Mr. Nadeem Ilahi
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Mr. Gil Mehrez
,
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Ms. Faezeh Raei
,
Ms. Alaina P Rhee
, and
Ms. Daria V Zakharova
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Keywords:
SDN; CESEE country; CESEE emigration; labor force; CESEE emigrant; migration flow; Emigration; remittances; growth; convergence; Eastern Europe; EU migration scenario; remittance inflow; Migration; Income; Labor force participation; Baltics; Western Europe; Europe; EU policy scenario; UN migration scenario; income convergence; impact of emigration; emigration from CESEE; Skilled labor
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Selected issues of Poland are studied in this paper. The global projection model used to prepare the baseline inflation forecast and risk assessment for Poland is also explained. Baseline forecast, risk assessment, and policy communication are discussed. The pension reform has been a cornerstone of fiscal policies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Problems with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) rules, a brief discussion of reform reversals, and policy options for both individual countries and those at the EU level are also discussed. Fiscal implications of pre-funding future liabilities are also studied.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; reform cost; CEE country; output gap shock; debt financing; headline inflation inflation rate; CEE reform country; Pension spending; Pension reform; Central bank policy rate; Pensions; Output gap; Global; Baltics; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances
Mrs. Delia Velculescu
Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be problematic, including in the case of Europe, where population aging is expected to pose additional fiscal costs not captured by such indicators. To better gauge the state of public finances in the EU27 countries, this paper derives forward-looking fiscal measures of intertemporal net worth both directly from the European Commission’s Aging Working Group’s long-run indicators and using a comprehensive public-sector balance sheet approach. These measures could be used as an "early warning" mechanism and also as a communication device with the public. Current estimates indicate that, on existing policies, the intertemporal net worth of the EU27 is deeply negative, even in excess of its GDP level, and is projected to worsen further over time. This suggests that Europe’s current policies need to be significantly strengthened to bring future liabilities in line with the EU governments’ capacity to generate assets.
Keywords:
WP; country; GDP; deficit
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
The report provides the details of the IMF's projections and estimates of Lithuania on key economic and financial indicators; major privatization transactions; balance of payments; bankruptcy cases; gross domestic product by expenditure at current prices and current prices; gross value added by sector at current prices; summary of consolidated general government operations during 1998–2002; monetary authorities; deposit money banks; indicators of financial sector vulnerability; interest rates at commercial banks; average interest rates on treasury bills during 1998–2003; summary of the tax systems, July 2003, and so on.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; General government finances; fund staff estimate; downward revision; gross investment; staff estimate; revision of the estimated population; Public expenditure review; Consumer price indexes; Current account balance
Cover Pension Reform in the Baltics
Pension Reform in the Baltics
Issues and Prospects
Mr. Jerald A Schiff
,
Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig
,
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
, and
Mr. Roman Zytek

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of efforts in the Baltic countries to reform their pension systems, and examines the choices facing these countries in their continued reform efforts. Early reforms were aimed at correcting the flaws of the inherited Soviet system and, in particular, at shoring up the finances of the pension systems and reducing their distortionary impact. The Baltic countries have been in the forefront of transition economies in their pursuit of pension reform. They have taken important steps to shore up the long-run financial health of their existing pension funds and made preparations for the implementation of a three-pillar scheme. Although a move toward a fully funded pension system can potentially make an important contribution to the objectives of pension reform, such a change is neither necessary nor sufficient to meet these goals. The existing PAYG pension system can, at least in theory, be made sustainable by an appropriate adjustment of payroll tax rates and expected lifetime pension benefits, although the average replacement rate implied by such changes may well be fairly low, reflecting the expected demographic developments.

Keywords:
OP; PAYG; pension; cost; saving; retirement age; transition cost; savings-investment balance; PAYG system; financing gap; lifetime pension benefits; Pension spending; Pensions; Pension reform; Aging; Retirement; Baltics