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Social Science > Demography

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Cover Gender Notes
Why a Gender Lens Matters: Unlocking Solutions to Macroeconomic Challenges
Lisa L Kolovich
,
Monique Newiak
,
Diego B. P. Gomes
,
Jiajia Gu
,
Vivian Malta
, and
Jorge Mondragon
As governments design policy packages to address the main macroeconomic questions of our times, putting a gender lens on macroeconomics can amplify reform impact. In this note, IMF staff’s analysis has called for attention to strengthening legal rights, gendered aspects of fiscal policy, and enhancing women’s work–life choices, including through structural reforms. Capacity development to assist member countries in their reform efforts has grown and, so far, has centered on integrating gender into public financial management systems through gender budgeting.
Keywords:
gender lens; macroeconomic policy; macro-gender tools; gender indicators; capacity development; IMF gender note; gender toolkit; IMF gender Note 2024/003; IMF staff calculation; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Women; Labor force participation; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Parametric Pension Reform Options in Korea
Daniel Baksa
,
Boele Bonthuis
,
Si Guo
, and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
Population aging in Korea will pose substantial challenges to the financial sustainability of its public pension system. Under current policies and plausible assumptions, public pension spending can increase by as much as 4 percent of GDP during 2020-70, while contribution revenue will largely stay constant. This expected rise in public pension spending mainly reflects the increase in the old-age dependency ratio (and therefore the number of pension recipients), the deceleration in GDP growth in response to demographic changes, and, to a lesser extent, the maturing of the National Pension Scheme. Three pension policies are considered to stabilize the public debt- to-GDP ratio: a retirement age increase, higher social security contributions, and a lower pension replacement rate, and a combination of all three. The adjustments need to be large to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio if each policy lever is used in isolation. A combination of smaller adjustments of multiple parameters yields better results.
Keywords:
Aging; pensions; overlapping generations model; parametric pension reform option; policy lever; to-GDP ratio; pension policy; replacement rate; Pension spending; Retirement; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Sustainable Path to Inclusive Growth in Japan: How to Tackle Income Inequality?
Purva Khera
and
Yun Gao
Market income inequality in Japan has been on a steady rise since the 1980s, and is now close to the OECD average. Gross and disposable income inequality, on the other hand, have risen much less but remain higher relative to several comparator countries. This paper employs inequality index decompositions by income source using household panel survey data from 2010-19 to identify the factors driving income inequality in Japan. Results indicate that while increase in the employment of females and the elderly in the last decade has helped lower income inequality, this has been offset by them being mostly employed in low-paid part-time nonregular jobs. Rapid aging of the population has also exacerbated income inequality over time. Moreover, while fiscal redistributive effects of social transfers are found to be a somewhat equalizing force, its impact on inequality is relatively weaker.
Keywords:
Inequality; labor market duality; wage gap; fiscal transfers; labor market dualism; household panel survey data; wage income; inequality index decomposition; Income inequality; Income; Income distribution; Aging; Capital income; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Japan’s Fertility: More Children Please
Kohei Asao
,
Danila Smirnov
, and
TengTeng Xu
Japan’s fertility has declined in the past three decades. Raising Japan’s fertility rate is a key policy priority for the government. Using cross-country analysis and case studies, this paper finds that the most successful measure to support the fertility rate is the provision of childcare facilities, particularly for children aged 0-2. Offering stronger incentives for the use of paternity leave can alleviate the burden of childcare on mothers, supporting fertility. On the other hand, there is limited evidence that cash transfers are effective in supporting fertility, based on international experience.
Keywords:
Fertility; childcare; gender; labor market; fertility growth; TengTeng xu; Japan's fertility; fertility rate; fertility rate growth; Women; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Employment; Aging; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
Patrick A. Imam
and
Christian Schmieder
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
Keywords:
Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability; IMF working paper No. 24/118; tail risk; risk preference; stability risk; solvency profile; bank assets; Commercial banks; Bank soundness; Loans; Global
Cover Gender Notes
Promoting Gender Equality and Tackling Demographic Challenges
Jaijai Gu
,
Lisa L Kolovich
,
Jorge Mondragon
,
Monique Newiak
, and
Michael Herrmann
Two broad contrasting demographic trends present challenges for economies globally: countries with aging populations, often advanced economies and increasingly emerging markets, anticipate a significant shrinking of the labor force, with implications for growth, economic stability, and public finances. Economies with rapidly growing populations, as is the case in many low-income and developing countries, will face a burgeoning young population entering the labor market in the next decades—a large potential to reap the demographic dividend if the right skills and economic and social conditions are in place. This note highlights how gender equality, in both cases, can serve as a stabilizing factor to rebalance demographic trends. As decisions regarding fertility, human capital investment, and labor force participation are interlinked, policies should aim at relaxing households’ time and resource constraints that condition these choices. This means that, in general, in advanced economies and emerging markets, policies should facilitate women’s work–life choices and boost female participation in the labor market, whereas policies in low-income and developing countries should focus on reforms that narrow gender gaps in opportunities and support human capital accumulation.
Keywords:
Demographics; fertility; female labor force participation; gender equality; education; human capital; macroeconomic policy; IMF gender note; labor force participation; IMF Library; IMF gender Note 2024/002; tackling demographic challenge; Gender diversity; Women; Labor force participation; Gender inequality; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the main drivers of persistent gender gaps in leadership in Japan and identifies public policies that can play a role in closing these gaps. Despite its economic relevance, analysis on the drivers of women leaders and managers in Japan is limited. There are a few existing studies, such as Yamaguchi (2013), that use firm level or survey-based data to identify the key constraints to women’s career advancement. Women are also underrepresented in policy-making positions. The availability of public childcare facilities has improved, and is positively associated with the share of female managers. As witnessed in the case of Japan, increasing female labor force participation is not sufficient to ensure that women have good jobs and good careers. In order to foster the advancement of women into managerial and leadership positions, policy efforts need acceleration. Reforming current employment practices and policies are essential for improving women’s quality of jobs. This will also help increase productivity, wages and advance an equal society. First, further progress should be made on work-style reforms, such as encouraging the use of flexible working schedules and teleworking options.
Keywords:
funding affect startup performance; labor market dualism; risk culture; childcare leave cause; wage income; Income inequality; Income; Women; Income distribution; Gender inequality; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Low for (Very) Long? A Long-Run Perspective on r* across Advanced Economies
Josef Platzer
,
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
, and
Robin Tietz
We provide a long-run perspective on neutral interest rates with new estimates for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach. Our estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies. We find that, while cross-country heterogeneity was significant in the past, since the 1980s the decline has been common to many countries. Traditional determinants such as population aging and productivity growth are strongly correlated with the changes in neutral rates, while others like the relative price of capital and inequality exhibit weak relationships with r*. We also find that neutral rates co-vary negatively with public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Keywords:
neutral rate; old-age dependency ratio; time series; neutral interest rates; coefficient estimate; cited estimation approach; estimation procedure; Real interest rates; Capital account; Aging; Output gap; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Ensuring Economic Sustainability
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Ensuring economic sustainability is key to achieving the IMF’s surveillance mandate of maintaining present and prospective balance of payments and domestic stability, assuring orderly exchange arrangements, and promoting a stable system of exchange rates. A good understanding of issues related to economic sustainability is thus essential for the IMF to provide effective surveillance and policy advice, while it requires a broad perspective and a long time horizon. With respect to the IMF’s surveillance mandate, the principle of macro-criticality, which guides the IMF’s engagement with its members, is sufficiently flexible and broad, allowing the IMF to cover issues related to economic sustainability. At the same time, given the wide range of issues that are related to economic sustainability, IMF surveillance needs to be selective and focused, with the choice of issues made on a case-by-case basis, considering country circumstances. It also needs to leverage the expertise of other institutions when necessary. The IMF and other institutions have advanced work to enhance analytical frameworks and indicators related to economic sustainability, and this should continue.
Keywords:
IMF surveillance; surveillance mandate; transparency policy; IMF's engagement; policy advice; Income inequality; Climate change; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities
Ms. Yuko Hashimoto
,
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
, and
Xiaoxiao Zhang
How does a shrinking population affect the housing market? In this study, drawing on Japan’s experience, we find that there exists an asymmetric relationship between housing prices and population change. Due to the durability of housing structures, the decline in housing prices associated with population losses is estimated to be larger than the rise in prices associated with population increases. Given that population losses have been and are projected to be more acute in rural areas than urban areas in Japan, the on-going demographic transition in Japan could worsen regional disparities, as falling house prices in rural areas could intensify population outflows. Policy measures to promote more even population growth across regions, and avoid the over-supply of houses, are critical to stabilize house prices with a shrinking population.
Keywords:
WP; house price; price; house; housing price; price appreciation; condominium price; price dynamics; price decline; price change; Housing prices; Housing; Population growth; Inflation; population change; house prices; durable housing model; akiya (vacant houses); regional disparity