Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications
Francesca Caselli
,
Huidan Huidan Lin
,
Frederik G Toscani
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023. The recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand, with around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 filled by non-EU citizens, while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows. Ukrainian refugees also appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries. The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area (of around 2 million workers) is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—slightly less than half the euro area’s annual potential GDP growth at that time—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives. This highlights the important role immigration can play in attenuating the effects of the Europe’s challenging demographic outlook. On the flipside, the large inflow had initial fiscal costs and likely led to some congestion of local public services such as schooling. Policy efforts should thus seek to continue to integrate migrants into the labor force while making sure that the supply of public services and amenities (including at the local level) keeps up with the population increase.
Keywords:
Migration; Labor Markets; European Union; migration perception; net migration; integration policy; EU citizen; migration development; Labor shortages; Aging; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
Yueling Huang
This paper empirically investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment. Exploiting variation in AI adoption across US commuting zones using a shift-share approach, I find that during 2010-2021, commuting zones with higher AI adoption have experienced a stronger decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Moreover, this negative employment effect is primarily borne by the manufacturing and lowskill services sectors, middle-skill workers, non-STEM occupations, and individuals at the two ends of the age distribution. The adverse impact is also more pronounced on men than women.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; technology; labor; local labor markets; shift share; middle-skill worker; labor market impact; impact of artificial intelligence; employment effect; low-skill services sectors; Employment; Employment rate; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Link Between Social Grant and Employment in South Africa
Mr. Ken Miyajima
The literature has analyzed the link between social grants, means-tested and unconditional on employment, and employment in South Africa. The country’s social grant expenditure is relatively large amid persistently high unemployment. This study uses a large panel household survey spanning a decade to find that old-age and disability grant recipients are less in employment as intended by the social program, consistent with the literature. The study adds to the literature by showing that, among “indirect recipients,” younger members typically have lower employment prospects than other indirect recipients. There could be various explanation for this finding, including that the youth are more discouraged from seeking jobs, face larger constraints in the labor market, or have less job opportunities.
Keywords:
Distributional effects; employment; household survey; social grants; South Africa; disability grant recipient; panel household survey; grant expenditure; employment in South Africa; employment probability; Aging; Income
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Israel: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper states that Israel’s growth performance is impressive, with real GDP growing at a faster pace than many other OECD countries. The secular Jewish population enjoys a high level of living standards, whereas most Arab and Haredi people are poor, with poverty incidence reaching 60 percent for both groups. Low employment in Arab and Haredi communities is mainly accounted for by the low employment rate of Arab women and Haredi men.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; central bank; inflation targeting; inflation; employment rate; graduation rate; OECD average; defense investment; Haredim men; bank publication; monetary policy; Employment rate; Financial sector stability; Global