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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 153 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Private Pensions x
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Cover Departmental Papers
Long-Term Spending Pressures in Europe
Stephanie Eble
,
Alexander Pitt
,
Irina Bunda
,
Oyun Erdene Adilbish
,
Nina Budina
,
Gee Hee Hong
,
Moheb T Malak
,
Sabiha Mohona
,
Alla Myrvoda
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries face high, rising, and long-lasting spending pressures, calling for a renewed focus on fiscal policy and comprehensive structural reforms to prepare their economies for the future. On top of existing fiscal consolidation needs, spending pressures in five key areas are imminent and growing in Europe: pensions and healthcare/long-term care driven by population aging; climate transition; increased defense spending; and higher borrowing costs. Some pressures are immediate, others will build up over time. Projections indicate that additional expenditures could reach 5¾ percent of GDP annually by 2050 in Advanced Europe and 8 percent in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Addressing these challenges will require extensive efforts, including enhancing institutional capacity and implementing deep structural reforms to manage spending, ensure adequate revenue, and meet environmental, social, and security objectives. Policymakers must also consider the distributional impacts of reforms, particularly on vulnerable households. A broad reform agenda tailored to country circumstances is essential, with urgent actions needed in many countries to ensure the sustainability of pension systems and to combat climate change through fiscal instruments like carbon pricing. Increased revenue mobilization, particularly in CESEE, and the reduction of inefficient spending are critical for creating fiscal space for priority expenditures. Strengthening the EU's fiscal capacity to provide common public goods such as climate, defense, energy security, and R&D and implementing structural reforms to enhance growth potential are also vital. However, raising awareness of these issues and implementing the necessary reforms will be challenging. A well-designed fiscal framework that incorporates long-term spending pressures, supported by comprehensive analysis and data, is crucial for informing public debate and guiding national decision-making to ensure that spending pressures are adequately addressed. Ultimately, inaction is not an option, as it risks fiscal sustainability and the fulfillment of priority spending needs.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; structural reforms; climate; defense; demographics; aging; health; public debt; fiscal institutions; spending pressure; member states; EU climate goal; increase EU resilience; emissions trading system; EU financing; EU rule; carbon border adjustment mechanism; EU budget; EU country; climate goal; spending needs; Pension spending; Defense spending; Pensions; Europe; priority spending needs; data from European Union; inefficient spending; long-term spending pressure
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes various factors that show potential growth in Poland. Poland has achieved substantial economic convergence within the EU. Labor productivity growth was robust until the disruptions from coronavirus disease. Poland’s economic convergence within the EU is expected to continue albeit at a slower pace. Using a production function approach, IMF now estimates that Poland’s potential growth to remain solid, but gradually decline, reaching 2.7 percent by 2029. Moving forward, the labor supply is expected to comprise a substantial drag on potential output. Policies should focus on deepening capital, facilitating resource reallocation, supporting labor supply, and enhancing innovation capacity. Strengthening vocational training and skill-matching could improve skills and allocative efficiency. Raising labor force participation among older cohorts should be complemented by enhancing adult learning. Poland has closed on Europe’s productivity frontier in most sectors. In order to sustain growth, it will need to transition from technology adoption. Government incentives and the financial system should be geared toward creating a conducive environment for R&D and other innovation activities, including by promoting private equity and venture capital.
Keywords:
D. pension inequity; convergence success; firm investment trend; B. pension projection; E. pension funds' role; pension benefit; Pension spending; Pensions; Productivity; Aging; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Challenge of Pension Reform in Kosovo: Republic of Kosovo
Boele Bonthuis
and
Selim Thaci
This paper examines the evolution and challenges of Kosovo's pension system. Since its inception, a basic pension and mandatory individual accounts have formed the key element of Kosovo’s pension system. Over the years, the pension system has expanded to include a variety of merit pensions, occupational pensions, and a legacy pension. While spending on the basic pension remains relatively low compared to international standards, there should be a more restrictive approach to special pension benefits. To enhance the clarity and effectiveness of pension indexation, it is essential to clearly define the index used for adjustments of the basic pension.
Keywords:
Pension policy; basic pension; special pension; retirement; pension spending; legacy pension; pension indexation; merit pension; merit pension schemes; Pensions; Pension reform; Aging; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Parametric Pension Reform Options in Korea
Daniel Baksa
,
Boele Bonthuis
,
Si Guo
, and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
Population aging in Korea will pose substantial challenges to the financial sustainability of its public pension system. Under current policies and plausible assumptions, public pension spending can increase by as much as 4 percent of GDP during 2020-70, while contribution revenue will largely stay constant. This expected rise in public pension spending mainly reflects the increase in the old-age dependency ratio (and therefore the number of pension recipients), the deceleration in GDP growth in response to demographic changes, and, to a lesser extent, the maturing of the National Pension Scheme. Three pension policies are considered to stabilize the public debt- to-GDP ratio: a retirement age increase, higher social security contributions, and a lower pension replacement rate, and a combination of all three. The adjustments need to be large to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio if each policy lever is used in isolation. A combination of smaller adjustments of multiple parameters yields better results.
Keywords:
Aging; pensions; overlapping generations model; parametric pension reform option; policy lever; to-GDP ratio; pension policy; replacement rate; Pension spending; Retirement; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Bulgarian Pension System: Caught Between Adequacy and Sustainability: Bulgaria
Jean-Jacques Hallaert
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
Bulgaria; Pension; Pension Adequacy; Financial Sustainability; Fiscal Risk from Pensions; pension entitlement; pension level; entitlements in social insurance; IMF staff calculation; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Pension system sustainability; Tax allowances; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Bulgarian pension system. The paper provides an overview of the pension system and describes measures taken in the last decade to increase its financial sustainability. It highlights how the measures taken during and after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic structurally affect the financial sustainability of the pension system. The paper also shows that the recent measures compound the long-term pressure related to an aging population. It also details policies that could contain the projected increase in pension spending. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
GVC Integration; IMF staff calculation; return on assets; GVC participation; EU country; current ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Exports; Public enterprises; Global; Europe
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Costa Rica: Technical Assistance Report-Universal Basic Pension: Objectives and Constraints
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
At the request of the Ministry of Finance, a mission from the International Monetary Fund visited San Jose. The purpose of the mission was to assess the proposal to a universal basic pension and to estimate its fiscal and welfare impact on the budget, on pension schemes, and on old age income poverty. Costa Rica is entering a demographic transition which will see the old age dependency ratios significantly worsen in the coming 20 years. The long-term financial sustainability of the general social security pension scheme (IVM) is a concern, despite various reforms introduced over the past three decades and the scheme’s reserves are expected to be exhausted by the mid-2030s. The government’s proposal intends to address financial sustainability, the adequacy of coverage and of benefit levels, as well as distributional equity through the introduction of a universal basic pension. The IMF team’s assessment is that the proposal is unlikely to fully meet its stated objectives. The proposal will worsen social security pension scheme’s financial sustainability and create additional financing needs. This will translate into an accelerated exhaustion of IVM reserves and, after the reserves are depleted, require significant adjustments to IVM parameters or higher government transfers. Old age income security may be more effectively addressed, with less pronounced fiscal side-effects, through improving coverage and compliance in IVM and expanding the reach of the social pension scheme. The primary instruments of achieving these goals are: (a) amending the rules undermining compliance with registration and wage reporting regulations in the contributory schemes, (b) improving coordination between tax and contribution collection agencies, (c) amending the regulations governing eligibility for noncontributory social pensions and (d) ensuring the noncontributory social pension is adequately financed.
Keywords:
resident representative; IMF executive director; IMF Proposal; Asociación Costarricense; PBU replacement; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Income; Central America
Cover Analytical Notes
Towards an Inclusive, Equitable and Sustainable National Pension System in Iraq
International Monetary Fund
,
World Bank
, and
International Labour Office
A pension system is at the heart of social protection. By ensuring income security for older persons and other vulnerable groups, it prevents poverty, reduces inequality, and facilitates consumption smoothing. A pension system also affects the working population’s labor market choices and has important fiscal implications. Iraq’s current pension system is highly fragmented, inequitable, and inefficient. First, it fails to provide adequate income protection to most of Iraqi’s old age population and other vulnerable groups, such as survivors and persons with disability. Second, the public sector pension is already putting substantial pressure on the budget and is potentially unsustainable given the projected acceleration of the total pension bill due to recent policy changes. Third, it sets an uneven playing field between the public and private sectors, contributing to the continued expansion of an already outsized civil service and holding back much-needed economic diversification and private sector growth. Thus, a comprehensive pension reform is urgently needed. Based on collaboration between the IMF, ILO and the World Bank this policy note aims to: 1) Provide an assessment of the existing public and private pension system across the four dimensions: fiscal sustainability; labor market implications; coverage; and adequacy of benefits. 2) Develop and propose options to adjust the pension system with a view to making it fiscally sustainable, more inclusive and adequate, and conducive to private sector development and labor market formalization. 3) Provide a basis to engage key stakeholders—including workers, employers organizations and the civil society—on strategies to achieve a more inclusive system, importantly by including workers in the informal economy, female workers, workers with disabilities, and other disadvantaged groups.
Keywords:
Pension system; Pension Reform; Social protection; Fiscal sustainability; ILO team; scheme reserve; ILO publication; IMF team; member country government; Pension spending; Pensions; Public sector; Aging; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) focuses on efficient, sustainable, and fair pension schemes. Despite recent reform efforts, the financial sustainability of the ECCU’s defined benefit social security schemes remains under strain, largely reflecting the still relatively low contributions and generous payouts. This, coupled with a rapidly ageing population and high labor market informality, increases the need for a comprehensive review and adoption of further parametric and non-parametric reforms of the pension systems to avoid abrupt and more sizable adjustments in the future as well as to reduce the risks of old-age poverty. This annex reviews pension schemes in the ECCU, with a focus on assessing their design and performance and identifying policy options to improve their efficiency, fairness, and sustainability. Key recommendations include swift adoption of further comprehensive reforms to address design weaknesses, improving coverage, investment strategy, administrative efficiency, and transparency, and establishing automatic adjustment mechanisms.
Keywords:
NIS pension schemes Overview; labor market performance; public sector pension schemes; labor markets in the ECCU; ECCU migration; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Retirement; Labor markets; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Assessment of the 2019 and 2020 Pension Reforms in Mexico
Boele Bonthuis
In recent years the Mexican pension system has changed significantly. In 2019 the existing means-tested social pension was made universal – covering everyone over the age of 65 – and the benefit level increased. In 2020, the main regime of the private sector was substantially reformed, increasing contribution rates for the funded defined contribution system, lowering the minimum years of contributions needed to receive an earnings-related pension, and increasing minimum pensions. This paper tries to assess the likely outcomes of those reforms, discusses design inefficiencies of the reforms and offers policy options to improve pension system design.
Keywords:
Pension reform; funding; pay-as-you-go; labor supply incentives; design inefficiencies; pension system design; pension calculation; minimum pension; pay-as-you-go pension accrual; design inefficiency; Pension spending; Pensions; Wages; Aging; Retirement; Caribbean; Central America