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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 71 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Retirement; Retirement Policies x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
Bruno R. Delalibera
,
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira
, and
Rafael Machado Parente
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector. As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems. We develop a general equilibrium life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, three sectors - private formal, private informal and public - and endogenous retirement. We quantitatively assess the long-run effects of reforms being discussed and implemented around the world. Among them, we study the unification of pension systems and increasing the minimum retirement age. We calibrate our model to Brazil, where several of the retirement conditions resemble those of other countries. We find that these reforms lower the likelihood of individuals to apply to a public job and increase the profile of savings over the life cycle. In the long run, these reforms lead to higher output and capital, reduced informality, and average welfare gains. They also drastically reduce the social security deficit.
Keywords:
Social security reform; Public employment; Public deficit; Informality; reform experiment; retirement condition; social security deficit; retirement decision; Retirement; Aging; Public sector; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK
Rodrigo Barrela
,
Pragyan Deb
,
Gloria Li
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Faced with fiscal pressures and labor shortages from ageing populations, Advanced Economies need to ease obstacles to longer working lives. In this paper, we discuss recent developments in employment and activity of workers aged 55 and above in Spain and the UK—two countries that differ widely on historical and recent employment rate patterns as well as institutional settings. We then explore themes related to their labor market decisions, including flows into and out of the labor force, health, working arrangements, and unemployment benefits systems. The differences and commonalities between the two countries highlight the diversity of obstacles to longer working lives and the need for policies to act upon all of them. Policy priorities include addressing worsening health, improving accessibility for older workers with physical limitations, providing incentives to return to employment for the long-term unemployed, and greater flexibility in hours and working arrangments for those who have family caring duties or want to gradually transition out of work.
Keywords:
Ageing; Older Workers; Retirement; Labor Force Participation; policy priority; labor market decision; IMF working paper 2025/30; older worker; job search; early retirement; Aging; Labor markets
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Challenge of Pension Reform in Kosovo: Republic of Kosovo
Boele Bonthuis
and
Selim Thaci
This paper examines the evolution and challenges of Kosovo's pension system. Since its inception, a basic pension and mandatory individual accounts have formed the key element of Kosovo’s pension system. Over the years, the pension system has expanded to include a variety of merit pensions, occupational pensions, and a legacy pension. While spending on the basic pension remains relatively low compared to international standards, there should be a more restrictive approach to special pension benefits. To enhance the clarity and effectiveness of pension indexation, it is essential to clearly define the index used for adjustments of the basic pension.
Keywords:
Pension policy; basic pension; special pension; retirement; pension spending; legacy pension; pension indexation; merit pension; merit pension schemes; Pensions; Pension reform; Aging; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Parametric Pension Reform Options in Korea
Daniel Baksa
,
Boele Bonthuis
,
Si Guo
, and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
Population aging in Korea will pose substantial challenges to the financial sustainability of its public pension system. Under current policies and plausible assumptions, public pension spending can increase by as much as 4 percent of GDP during 2020-70, while contribution revenue will largely stay constant. This expected rise in public pension spending mainly reflects the increase in the old-age dependency ratio (and therefore the number of pension recipients), the deceleration in GDP growth in response to demographic changes, and, to a lesser extent, the maturing of the National Pension Scheme. Three pension policies are considered to stabilize the public debt- to-GDP ratio: a retirement age increase, higher social security contributions, and a lower pension replacement rate, and a combination of all three. The adjustments need to be large to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio if each policy lever is used in isolation. A combination of smaller adjustments of multiple parameters yields better results.
Keywords:
Aging; pensions; overlapping generations model; parametric pension reform option; policy lever; to-GDP ratio; pension policy; replacement rate; Pension spending; Retirement; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) focuses on efficient, sustainable, and fair pension schemes. Despite recent reform efforts, the financial sustainability of the ECCU’s defined benefit social security schemes remains under strain, largely reflecting the still relatively low contributions and generous payouts. This, coupled with a rapidly ageing population and high labor market informality, increases the need for a comprehensive review and adoption of further parametric and non-parametric reforms of the pension systems to avoid abrupt and more sizable adjustments in the future as well as to reduce the risks of old-age poverty. This annex reviews pension schemes in the ECCU, with a focus on assessing their design and performance and identifying policy options to improve their efficiency, fairness, and sustainability. Key recommendations include swift adoption of further comprehensive reforms to address design weaknesses, improving coverage, investment strategy, administrative efficiency, and transparency, and establishing automatic adjustment mechanisms.
Keywords:
NIS pension schemes Overview; labor market performance; public sector pension schemes; labor markets in the ECCU; ECCU migration; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Retirement; Labor markets; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Assessment of the 2019 and 2020 Pension Reforms in Mexico
Boele Bonthuis
In recent years the Mexican pension system has changed significantly. In 2019 the existing means-tested social pension was made universal – covering everyone over the age of 65 – and the benefit level increased. In 2020, the main regime of the private sector was substantially reformed, increasing contribution rates for the funded defined contribution system, lowering the minimum years of contributions needed to receive an earnings-related pension, and increasing minimum pensions. This paper tries to assess the likely outcomes of those reforms, discusses design inefficiencies of the reforms and offers policy options to improve pension system design.
Keywords:
Pension reform; funding; pay-as-you-go; labor supply incentives; design inefficiencies; pension system design; pension calculation; minimum pension; pay-as-you-go pension accrual; design inefficiency; Pension spending; Pensions; Wages; Aging; Retirement; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies inflation dynamics in Belize with the goal of quantifying the role of external and domestic factors in the recent inflationary episode and projecting inflation going forward. The paper applies a Principal Component Analysis to inflation data of several countries and finds that global factors have contributed substantially to both the historical variation and the recent surge in Belize’s inflation. Global factors explain most of the recent surge in inflation in Belize and are projected to reduce inflation going forward. An estimated Phillips curve also finds that external factors, proxied by food and fuel prices and US inflation, have been a key driver in the surge in Belize’s inflation during the last two years. The estimation results show that external factors have significant effects on Belize’s inflation.
Keywords:
PPPO deficit; IMF's transparency policy; inflation projection; inflation decomposition; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Inflation; Aging; Retirement; Pensions; Food prices; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Principality of Andorra: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
policy implication; banking model; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; features of the Andorran banking sector; contribution rate; Pension spending; Potential output; Pensions; Retirement; Liquidity requirements; Europe; Middle East; South America
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
IMF Engagement on Pension Issues in Surveillance and Program Work
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly involved in offering policy advice on public pension issues to member countries. Public pension spending is important from both fiscal and welfare perspectives. Pension policy and its reforms can have significant fiscal and distribution implications, can influence labor supply and labor demand decisions, and may impact consumption and savings behavior. This technical note provides guidance on assessing public pension systems’ macrocriticality, i.e., sustainability, adequacy, and efficiency; it also discusses the issues and policy trade-offs to be considered when designing responses aiming to address these dimensions of the pension system. The paper emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term, comprehensive perspective when evaluating public pension spending and providing policy advice. Where feasible, reforms should be gradual and transparent to allow individuals ample time to adjust their work and savings decisions and to facilitate consumption smoothing over their lifecycle to avoid poverty in old age. It is also important to ensure that pension systems’ design and reforms do not lead to undesirable impacts in other policy areas including general tax compliance, health insurance coverage, labor force participation among older workers, or labor market informality. The paper emphasizes the importance country-specific social and economic objectives and constraints, as well as political economy realities – factors that can determine whether a pension reform is a success or failure.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Social Protection; Pensions; Fiscal Sustainability; Defined Benefit; Defined Contribution; pension policy; policy engagement; Policy advice; General consideration; pension provision; C. IMF-supported program; Pension spending; Pension reform; Aging; Europe; Africa; Global; Southeast Asia; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Chile's Pension System: Challenges and Reform Options
Samuel Pienknagura
and
Christopher Evans
Chile’s pension system came under close scrutiny in recent years. This paper takes stock of the adequacy of the system and highlights its challenges. Chile’s defined contribution system was quite influential when introduced, and was taken as an example by other countries. However, it is now delivering low replacement rates relative to OECD peers, as its parameters did not adapt over time to changing demographics and global returns, while informality persists in the labor market. In the absence of reforms, the system’s inability to deliver adequate outcomes for a large share of participants will continue to magnify, as demographic trends and low global interest rates will continue to reduce replacement rates. In addition, recent legislation allowing for pension savings withdrawals to counter the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, is projected to further reduce replacement rates and increase fiscal costs. A substantial improvement in replacement rates is feasible, via a reform that raises contribution rates and the retirement age, coupled with policies that increases workers’ contribution density.
Keywords:
replacement rate; savings withdrawal; contribution rate; reform option; fiscal cost; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Aging; Women; Global