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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Labor Demand x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
Yueling Huang
This paper empirically investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment. Exploiting variation in AI adoption across US commuting zones using a shift-share approach, I find that during 2010-2021, commuting zones with higher AI adoption have experienced a stronger decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Moreover, this negative employment effect is primarily borne by the manufacturing and lowskill services sectors, middle-skill workers, non-STEM occupations, and individuals at the two ends of the age distribution. The adverse impact is also more pronounced on men than women.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; technology; labor; local labor markets; shift share; middle-skill worker; labor market impact; impact of artificial intelligence; employment effect; low-skill services sectors; Employment; Employment rate; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the main drivers of persistent gender gaps in leadership in Japan and identifies public policies that can play a role in closing these gaps. Despite its economic relevance, analysis on the drivers of women leaders and managers in Japan is limited. There are a few existing studies, such as Yamaguchi (2013), that use firm level or survey-based data to identify the key constraints to women’s career advancement. Women are also underrepresented in policy-making positions. The availability of public childcare facilities has improved, and is positively associated with the share of female managers. As witnessed in the case of Japan, increasing female labor force participation is not sufficient to ensure that women have good jobs and good careers. In order to foster the advancement of women into managerial and leadership positions, policy efforts need acceleration. Reforming current employment practices and policies are essential for improving women’s quality of jobs. This will also help increase productivity, wages and advance an equal society. First, further progress should be made on work-style reforms, such as encouraging the use of flexible working schedules and teleworking options.
Keywords:
funding affect startup performance; labor market dualism; risk culture; childcare leave cause; wage income; Income inequality; Income; Women; Income distribution; Gender inequality; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Did the COVID-19 Recession Increase the Demand for Digital Occupations in the United States? Evidence from Employment and Vacancies Data
Jiaming Soh
,
Myrto Oikonomou
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Mr. Ippei Shibata
, and
Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 recession led to an increase in demand for digital occupations in the United States. Using O*NET to capture the digital content of occupations, we find that regions that were hit harder by the COVID-19 recession experienced a larger increase in the share of digital occupations in both employment and newly-posted vacancies. This result is driven, however, by the smaller decline in demand for digital workers relative to non-digital ones, and not by an absolute increase in the demand for digital workers. While our evidence supports the view that digital workers, particularly those in urban areas and cognitive occupations, were more insulated during this recession, there is little indication of a persistent shift in the demand for digital occupations.
Keywords:
IMF working paper research Department; occupations in the United States; vacancies data; cognitive occupation; digital occupation; Employment; COVID-19; Economic recession; Labor markets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?
Shai Bernstein
,
Emanuele Colonnelli
,
Mr. Davide Malacrino
, and
Tim McQuade
New firm formation is a critical driver of job creation, and an important contributor to the responsiveness of the economy to aggregate shocks. In this paper we examine the characteristics of the individuals who become entrepreneurs when local opportunities arise due to an increase in local demand. We identify local demand shocks by linking fluctuations in global commodity prices to municipality level agricultural endowments in Brazil. We find that the firm creation response is almost entirely driven by young and skilled individuals, as measured by their level of experience, education, and past occupations involving creativity, problem-solving and managerial roles. In contrast, we find no such response within the same municipalities among skilled, yet older individuals, highlighting the importance of lifecycle considerations. These responsive individuals are younger and more skilled than the average entrepreneur in the population. The entrepreneurial response of young individuals is larger in municipalities with better access to finance, and in municipalities with more skilled human capital. These results highlight how the characteristics of the local population can have a significant impact on the entrepreneurial responsiveness of the economy.
Keywords:
Entrepreneurship; Firms; Financial Development; Commodities; creation response; experience distribution; heterogeneous firm; firm entry response; firm creation rate; marginal revenue; created firm; time series; fertility rate; Self-employment; Labor force; Employment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions
Benjamin Hilgenstock
and
Zsoka Koczan
The paper examines the evolution and drivers of labor force participation in European regions, focusing on the effects of trade and technology. As in the United States, rural regions within European countries saw more pronounced declines (or smaller increases) in participation than urban regions. Unlike in the United States, however, trade and technology, captured here using novel measures of initial exposures to routinization and offshoring, did not result in detachment from the workforce in European regions. Instead, regions with high initial exposures to routinization and offshoring experienced so-far larger increases in participation, likely driven by an added second worker effect.
Keywords:
WP; labor force; Labor force participation; exposure to routinization; exposure to offshoring; technology; automation; dependency ratio; cyclical condition; offshoring due; employment-reducing effect; supply chain integration; inactivity rate area; offshoring distribution; effects of automation; Employment; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Storm Clouds Ahead? Migration and Labor Force Participation Rates in Europe
Benjamin Hilgenstock
and
Zsoka Koczan
The paper examines the potential effects of international migration on labor force participation in advanced economies in Europe. It documents that migration played a significant role in alleviating aging pressures on labor supply by affecting the age composition of receiving countries’ populations. However, micro-level analysis also points to differences in average educational levels, as well as differences in the effects of any given level of education on participation across migrants and natives. Difficulties related to the recognition of educational qualifications appear to be associated with smaller effects of education on the odds of participation for migrants, especially women.
Keywords:
WP; migrant; Labor force participation; aging; migration; migration scenario; participation decision; integration policy; policy stance; age effect; net migration; way migrant; age composition effect; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas
Benjamin Hilgenstock
and
Zsoka Koczan
The United States stands out among advanced economies with marked declines in labor force participation. National averages furthermore conceal considerable within-country heterogeneity. This paper explores regional differences to shed light on drivers of participation rates at the state and metropolitan area levels. It documents a broad-based decline, especially pronounced outside metropolitan areas. Using novel measures of local vulnerability to trade and technology it finds that metropolitan areas with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring experienced larger drops in participation in 2000-2016. Thus, areas with different occupational mixes can experience divergent labor market trajectories as a result of trade and technology.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; US US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Labor force participation; exposure to routinization; exposure to offshoring; technology; automation; cyclical condition; dependency ratio; cohort effect; employment share; population aging; labor market indicator; Labor markets; Employment; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States
Mai Dao
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
We examine patterns of regional adjustments to shocks in the US during the past four decades. We find that the response of interstate migration to relative labor market conditions has decreased, while the role of the unemployment rate as absorber of regional shocks has increased. However, the response of net migration to regional shocks is stronger during aggregate downturns and increased particularly during the Great Recession. We offer a potential explanation for the cyclical pattern of migration response based on the variation in consumption risk sharing.
Keywords:
WP; demand shock; labor market; participation rate; Interstate migration; labor mobility; regional labor markets; migration rate; migration response; employment growth; labor demand shock; migration data; migration sensitivity; Migration; Labor demand; Employment; Labor markets; Labor force; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Labor Market Mismatch a Big Deal in Japan?
Mr. Ippei Shibata
Despite its low unemployment rate, the recent shift in the Japanese Beveridge curve indicates increased labor mismatch. This paper quantifies the age, employment-type (full or part-time), and occupational mismatch in the Japanese labor market following Sahin and others (2013). Between April 2000 and April 2013, the age mismatch has steadily declined while the occupational and employmenttype mismatch has shown a countercyclical pattern, showing a sharp increase during the global financial crisis. Occupational mismatch accounted for approximtely 20-40 percent of the recent rise in the unemployment rate in Japan. The magnitude was comparable to that of the U.K. and the U.S.
Keywords:
WP; job mobility; mismatch; vacancies; unemployment; Japanese labor market; vacancy-unemployment ratio; vacancy share; mismatch unemployment; employment-type mismatch; unemployment rate in Japan; Unemployment rate; Labor markets; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?
Ms. Andrea De Michelis
,
Mr. Marcello M. Estevão
, and
Ms. Beth Anne Wilson
Traditionally, shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) are considered exogenous and the employment response depends on their effect on aggregate demand. We raise the possibility that in response to labor supply shocks firms adjust efficiency, rendering TFP endogenous to firms’ production decisions. We present robust cross-country evidence of a strong negative correlation between growth in TFP and labor inputs over the medium to long run. In addition, when using instruments to capture changes in hours worked that are independent of TFP shocks, we find that cross-country increases in labor input cause reductions in TFP growth. These results have important policy implications, including that low productivity growth in some countries may partly be a side effect of strong labor market performance. By the same token, countries facing a declining workforce, say, because of aging, may see accelerating TFP as firms find better ways of employing workers.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; hours growth; hour; total factor productivity; employment performance; technology choices; TFP measure; TFP growth to exogenous movement; labor input growth; growth of TFP; increase immigration; Labor productivity; Productivity; Population growth; Europe