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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 76 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Demand and Supply of Labor: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK
Rodrigo Barrela
,
Pragyan Deb
,
Gloria Li
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Faced with fiscal pressures and labor shortages from ageing populations, Advanced Economies need to ease obstacles to longer working lives. In this paper, we discuss recent developments in employment and activity of workers aged 55 and above in Spain and the UK—two countries that differ widely on historical and recent employment rate patterns as well as institutional settings. We then explore themes related to their labor market decisions, including flows into and out of the labor force, health, working arrangements, and unemployment benefits systems. The differences and commonalities between the two countries highlight the diversity of obstacles to longer working lives and the need for policies to act upon all of them. Policy priorities include addressing worsening health, improving accessibility for older workers with physical limitations, providing incentives to return to employment for the long-term unemployed, and greater flexibility in hours and working arrangments for those who have family caring duties or want to gradually transition out of work.
Keywords:
Ageing; Older Workers; Retirement; Labor Force Participation; policy priority; labor market decision; IMF working paper 2025/30; older worker; job search; early retirement; Aging; Labor markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Polish economy is recovering, driven by a rebound in domestic demand. Private consumption growth is being driven by rising nominal and real wages, and lower inflation; still, inflation remains well above target against a tight labor market. The current account surplus has diminished in 2024 as imports increased, while exports are contained by the subdued growth in the Euro Area. Fiscal pressures remain high, in part due to elevated defense spending.
Keywords:
currency of Poland; IMF staff calculation; consultation cycle; holdings of SDR; Policy recommendation; Inflation; Credit; Labor markets; Aging; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Labor Market Integration and Migration: Republic of Kosovo
Stephen Ayerst
This paper highlights recent trends in the Kosovo labor market and emigration. Like other Western Balkan countries, Kosovo experienced a sharp decline in population over the previous decade, as emigration increased. Using a structural model of the labor market and migration, the paper examines the potential impact of further EU integration. While lower migration costs hurt the economy, productivity convergence brought on by EU integration has an offsetting impact by increasing wages, lowering unemployment, and increase immigration. Policy simulations show that policymakers have a diverse set of tools—including structural reforms, active labor market policies, business support, and labor participation support—to boost potential and support the labor market.
Keywords:
Kosovo; Labor Markets; Population; Migration; EU integration; Policy simulation; labor market integration; Kosovo economy; labor market challenge; Unemployment; Labor shortages; Western Europe
Cover Gender Notes
Why a Gender Lens Matters: Unlocking Solutions to Macroeconomic Challenges
Lisa L Kolovich
,
Monique Newiak
,
Diego B. P. Gomes
,
Jiajia Gu
,
Vivian Malta
, and
Jorge Mondragon
As governments design policy packages to address the main macroeconomic questions of our times, putting a gender lens on macroeconomics can amplify reform impact. In this note, IMF staff’s analysis has called for attention to strengthening legal rights, gendered aspects of fiscal policy, and enhancing women’s work–life choices, including through structural reforms. Capacity development to assist member countries in their reform efforts has grown and, so far, has centered on integrating gender into public financial management systems through gender budgeting.
Keywords:
gender lens; macroeconomic policy; macro-gender tools; gender indicators; capacity development; IMF gender note; gender toolkit; IMF gender Note 2024/003; IMF staff calculation; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Women; Labor force participation; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shifting Perceptions: Unpacking Public Support for Immigrant Workers Integration in the Labor Market
Silvia Albrizio
,
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Bertrand Gruss
,
Eric Huang
, and
Colombe Ladreit
This paper investigates public perceptions and support for policies aimed at integrating immigrant workers into domestic labor markets. Through large-scale surveys involving 6,300 respondents from Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom, we provide new insights into attitudes toward migrant integration policies and the impact of different information provisions on belief updating. We identify three key factors that shape policy support: pre-existing stereotypes about immigrants, awareness of labor market integration policies for migrants, and, most critically, the perceived economic and social impact of these policies. Our findings reveal that providing information about the economic effects of integrating immigrants in the labor market significantly alters perceptions and increases support for these policies. Notably, explanations of the economic mechanisms underlying these policies are more effective than simply presenting policy effects or real-life stories of integration challenges. The survey also identifies the primary barriers to policy support, with fairness considerations toward unemployed native workers emerging as the top concern. It reveals that addressing individuals’ specific concerns through tailored mitigation measures can enhance support for policies aimed at better integration migrants. Nevertheless, a significant challenge remains in overcoming mistrust in the government’s commitment and ability to effectively implement these policies and accompanying measures.
Keywords:
Labor market integration policies; Survey; Perceptions; Immigration; Online experiment; Political Economy; integration policy; shape policy support; policy effect; mitigation policy; support variable; integration migrant; Migration; Labor markets; Labor market policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications
Francesca Caselli
,
Huidan Huidan Lin
,
Frederik G Toscani
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023. The recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand, with around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 filled by non-EU citizens, while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows. Ukrainian refugees also appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries. The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area (of around 2 million workers) is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—slightly less than half the euro area’s annual potential GDP growth at that time—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives. This highlights the important role immigration can play in attenuating the effects of the Europe’s challenging demographic outlook. On the flipside, the large inflow had initial fiscal costs and likely led to some congestion of local public services such as schooling. Policy efforts should thus seek to continue to integrate migrants into the labor force while making sure that the supply of public services and amenities (including at the local level) keeps up with the population increase.
Keywords:
Migration; Labor Markets; European Union; migration perception; net migration; integration policy; EU citizen; migration development; Labor shortages; Aging; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
Yueling Huang
This paper empirically investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment. Exploiting variation in AI adoption across US commuting zones using a shift-share approach, I find that during 2010-2021, commuting zones with higher AI adoption have experienced a stronger decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Moreover, this negative employment effect is primarily borne by the manufacturing and lowskill services sectors, middle-skill workers, non-STEM occupations, and individuals at the two ends of the age distribution. The adverse impact is also more pronounced on men than women.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; technology; labor; local labor markets; shift share; middle-skill worker; labor market impact; impact of artificial intelligence; employment effect; low-skill services sectors; Employment; Employment rate; Labor markets; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Japan’s Fertility: More Children Please
Kohei Asao
,
Danila Smirnov
, and
TengTeng Xu
Japan’s fertility has declined in the past three decades. Raising Japan’s fertility rate is a key policy priority for the government. Using cross-country analysis and case studies, this paper finds that the most successful measure to support the fertility rate is the provision of childcare facilities, particularly for children aged 0-2. Offering stronger incentives for the use of paternity leave can alleviate the burden of childcare on mothers, supporting fertility. On the other hand, there is limited evidence that cash transfers are effective in supporting fertility, based on international experience.
Keywords:
Fertility; childcare; gender; labor market; fertility growth; TengTeng xu; Japan's fertility; fertility rate; fertility rate growth; Women; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Employment; Aging; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) focuses on efficient, sustainable, and fair pension schemes. Despite recent reform efforts, the financial sustainability of the ECCU’s defined benefit social security schemes remains under strain, largely reflecting the still relatively low contributions and generous payouts. This, coupled with a rapidly ageing population and high labor market informality, increases the need for a comprehensive review and adoption of further parametric and non-parametric reforms of the pension systems to avoid abrupt and more sizable adjustments in the future as well as to reduce the risks of old-age poverty. This annex reviews pension schemes in the ECCU, with a focus on assessing their design and performance and identifying policy options to improve their efficiency, fairness, and sustainability. Key recommendations include swift adoption of further comprehensive reforms to address design weaknesses, improving coverage, investment strategy, administrative efficiency, and transparency, and establishing automatic adjustment mechanisms.
Keywords:
NIS pension schemes Overview; labor market performance; public sector pension schemes; labor markets in the ECCU; ECCU migration; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Retirement; Labor markets; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe
Diva Astinova
,
Romain A Duval
,
Niels-Jakob H Hansen
,
Ben Park
,
Ippei Shibata
, and
Frederik G Toscani
Three years after the COVID-19 crisis, employment and total hours worked in Europe fully recovered, but average hours per worker did not. We analyze the decline in average hours worked across European countries and find that (i) it is not cyclical but predominantly structural, extending a long-term trend that predates COVID-19, (ii) it mainly reflects reduced hours within worker groups, not a compositional shift towards lower-hours jobs and workers, (iii) men—particularly those with young children—and youth drive this drop, (iv) declines in actual hours match declines in desired hours. Policy reforms could help involuntary parttimers and women with young children raise their actual hours towards desired levels, but the aggregate impact on average hours would be limited to 0.5 to 1.5 percent. Overall, there is scant evidence of slack at the intensive margin in European labor markets, and the trend fall in average hours worked seems unlikely to reverse.
Keywords:
hours worked; working hours; labor market; Europe; policy reform; worker level; scant evidence; summary statistics; full time worker; Labor markets; Women; Labor supply; Labor force participation