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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 129 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Labor Economics: General x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Japan’s Fertility: More Children Please
Kohei Asao
,
Danila Smirnov
, and
TengTeng Xu
Japan’s fertility has declined in the past three decades. Raising Japan’s fertility rate is a key policy priority for the government. Using cross-country analysis and case studies, this paper finds that the most successful measure to support the fertility rate is the provision of childcare facilities, particularly for children aged 0-2. Offering stronger incentives for the use of paternity leave can alleviate the burden of childcare on mothers, supporting fertility. On the other hand, there is limited evidence that cash transfers are effective in supporting fertility, based on international experience.
Keywords:
Fertility; childcare; gender; labor market; fertility growth; TengTeng xu; Japan's fertility; fertility rate; fertility rate growth; Women; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Employment; Aging; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Closing Peru’s Ethnic Gaps Amidst Sustained Economic Growth
Carlos Chavez
,
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
, and
Yuri Zamora
We analyze the recent evolution of ethnic economic inequality in Peru, a major source of social discontent in the country. Household survey data indicates that recent decades of high output growth also witnessed a substantial narrowing of socioeconomic gaps among ethnicities. Most notably, the Mestizo ethnic group surpassed the White group in income per capita, and Native American also experienced a relative improvement. Mincerian regression analysis suggests that the main contributors to these developments were rural-to-urban migration and increased education. Based on our statistical findings, we propose enhancing education and other public services, increasing government revenues, lowering informality, and promoting competition as the main public policies that could accelerate the ongoing narrowing of ethnic gaps.
Keywords:
Income Inequality; Informal Economy; Poverty; Welfare.; household survey data; labor income; Earnings function; gaps narrow; regression analysis; Income; Income distribution; Public employment; East Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Preferences for Reforms: Endowments vs. Beliefs
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Yi Ji
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
,
Mr. Ippei Shibata
, and
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Are preferences for reforms driven by individuals’ own endowments or beliefs? To address this question, we conducted a cross-country survey on people’s opinions on employment protection legislation—an area where reform has proven to be difficult and personal interests are at stake. We find that individuals’ beliefs matter more than their own endowments and personal pay-offs. A randomized information treatment confirms that beliefs explain views about reform, but beliefs can change with new information. Our results are robust to several robustness tests, including to alternative estimation techniques and samples.
Keywords:
political opinions; preferences; political economy; regulation; reform; employment protection; beliefs; ideology; endowments; surveys.; IMF working paper research Department; EPL deregulation; copyright page; individuals' belief; knowledge indicator; Labor markets; Labor force; Southern Europe; Northern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development 2018 to 2023 (PAPD) is the second in the series of 5-year National Development Plans (NDP) anticipated under the Liberia Vision 2030 framework. It follows the Agenda for Transformation 2012-2017 (AfT). It is informed as well by lessons learned from the implementation of the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy 2007 (iPRS) and the Poverty Reduction Strategy (2008-2011). The fundamentals underpinning the PAPD are: i) Liberia is rich in human and natural resources; but ii) is deprived of development largely because its human capital lacks the knowledge to transform the natural resources into wealth—whether through farming, mining, fishing, or other productive ventures that require technology or financial investments. Consequently, Liberia is relatively rich in natural capital but relatively poor in relations to its peers in both human and produced capital. Moreover, because of a legacy of entrenched inequality in access to development opportunities, widespread infrastructure deficits and pervasive poverty have become the binding constraints to future growth and prosperity.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector; absolute poverty; gross domestic product; economic growth; real GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
and
José M. Mota
The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.
Keywords:
Optimal containment policies; COVID-19; heterogeneous agents; recession; voluntary social distancing.; WP; policy scenario; containment policy; share of contact; blanket policy scenario; optimal containment; targeted policy approach
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach
John P. Ansah
,
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
, and
Valeriu Nalban
We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on the tradeoffs between saving lives and preserving economic outcomes under various mitigation policies and scenarios calibrated for emerging market and developing economies. In our benchmark setup, we link the effective contact frequency and labor supply decisions to the current state of the disease progression, allowing for relevant behavioral responses that introduce multiple feedback channels. We showcase the effects of various “smart” mitigation measures, e.g. improved quarantine capacity or targeted labor market restrictions, to alleviate the tradeoffs between health-related outcomes and economic activity, including in response to a second infection wave. The discovery of treatment or vaccine, and the possibility of temporary immunity for the recovered individuals are also considered. The model is further extended to a multisector framework to analyze the sectoral allocation effects of the COVID-19 shock.
Keywords:
Pandemic; Epidemiological model; Macroeconomics; Emerging market and developing economies; Mitigation policy; WP; infection risk; lockdown measure; infection rate; government-mandated lockdown; infection prevalence; viral load; infection curve; infection intensity; wave scenario; infection wave; virus transmission rate; latency period; COVID-19; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What are the Economic Effects of Pandemic Containment Policies? Evidence from Sweden
Mrs. Jana Bricco
,
Florian Misch
, and
Alexandra Solovyeva
This paper examines the economic effects of policies to contain Covid-19, by extracting lessons from Sweden’s experience during the ‘Great Lockdown’. Sweden’s approach was less stringent and based more on social responsibility than legal obligations compared to European peers. First, we provide an account of Sweden’s strategy and the health outcomes. Second, drawing on a range of data sources and empirical findings, our analysis of the first Covid-19 wave indicates that a less stringent strategy can soften the economic impact initially. These benefits could be eroded subsequently, due to potentially higher infection rates and a prolonged pandemic, but in Sweden’s case, the evidence remains mixed in this regard, and it is premature to judge the outcome of Sweden’s containment strategy. In addition, the economic effects of the containment strategy also depend on social behavior, demographics and structural features of the economy, such as the degree of export orientation, reliance on global supply chains, and malleability to remote working.
Keywords:
WP; Sweden; containment; containment measure; IMF staff calculation; containment strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic
Allan Dizioli
and
Roberto Pinheiro
We introduce two types of agent heterogeneity in a calibrated epidemiological search model. First, some agents cannot afford staying home to minimize their virus exposure, while others can. Our results show that these poor agents bear most of the epidemic’s health costs. Moreover, we show that having more agents who do not change their behavior during the pandemic could lead to a deeper recession. Second, agents are heterogeneous in developing symptoms. We show that diseases with higher share of asymptomatic cases, even if less lethal, lead to worse health and economic outcomes. Public policies such as testing, quarantining, and lockdowns are particularly beneficial in economies with a larger share of poor agents. However, lockdowns lose effectiveness when part of the agents take precautions to minimize virus exposure independent of government actions.
Keywords:
WP; infection rate; asymptomatic infection; unconstrained agent; Bellman equation; time allocation; flow utility; arrival rate; infected agent; Labor supply; Public expenditure review; COVID-19; testing; asymptomaticity; inequality
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographic Transition and Pension Reforms: Adding Demographics to GIMF
Benjamin Carton
,
Emilio Fernández Corugedo
,
Mr. Benjamin L Hunt
, and
Simon Voigts
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of demographic features into the model. The analysis presented illustrates how these new features enable the model to estimate some of the macroeconomic consequences of changing demographics.
Keywords:
WP; demographics; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdependence; exchange rate; central bank; risk premium; trade balance; labor market; OLG household; nominal interest rate; market rate of interest; capital stock; GIMF model; rate of return; lending rate; Aging; Population growth; Demographic change; Global; consumption function; spillover effect; world real interest rate; net impact; substitution effect; wealth effect; fiscal policy question
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows
Cem Cakmakli
,
Selva Demiralp
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
,
Sevcan Yesiltas
, and
Muhammed A. Yildirim
We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages.
Keywords:
WP; stimulus package; open economy; inflation rate; COVID-19; Debt Monetisation; External Finance; SIR; Input-Output Tables; Emerging Markets; economic cost; monetary policy; foreign currency; debt monetization; supply and demand; total output; utility function; swap line; Demand elasticity; Global; closed economy; Unconventional monetary policies